Horsemanship

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If you\'re right about some of those others SC, they slipped by me. T.Gulch was rejected by Lukas at the sales but he picked him up because the buyer brought the horse to him. (Lukas actually scratched his name off in the sales catalogue) I don\'t think he started for another trainer. I could be wrong. I never considered Slew City that good a horse. (He popped on speed tracks for a race or two didn\'t he?)I dont think he beat Alysheba at 10 marks but I really can\'t remember. I think Azeri fell off this past year. Lukas got her to run no faster than De Sereau (sic) ever did. He didn\'t get as much out of her through mishandling and misplacement and thats why she\'ll be runner up in the eclipse. The voters can count and they can measure head to head.

The one that you mentioned that makes the strongest case for Lukas is probably Twilight Agenda. But, I can\'t remember where he came from. The same for Spain. I swore he had her all along. I don\'t factor turf horses. Turf can move them up as well. Lukas is many things, but hes\' not a turf trainer and I\'m factoring Marlin who you forgot.  

But the key with Lukas will obviously be comparing the speed figures. Did Lukas actually move this animals forward like Frankel is doing? Lukas\'s success is getting to be pretty remote so I can\'t pull numbers for any horse but Azeri and he most certainly did not impact her favorably.

I know he moved Criminal Type. I think he moved Twilight. I can\'t remember Gulch. Thats about as far as I can go. And he caught twilight at four is my recollection. My general read is that he picked up horses that were already fast. But we need someone with back figures to substantiate and many of these horses predate my computer era.

CtC



Post Edited (01-11-05 08:28)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael,

I\'m looking at numbers. They don\'t make sense and theres a few common suspects that are jumping horses. I\'ve heard the new vet refers to his gimmick as titration related. The vet works for Frankel. I\'ve tried to figure out titrations. I dont\' understand it. Technically its introducing a known substance into an unknown substance and by the remainder of the known substance you ascertain the identity of the unknown. If thats it, I dont know what he\'s introducing or dissipating. But I have my suspicion. He\'s playing word games. This guy is clever and needs to be banned from the game.

We know Frankel is not milkshaking. The Hals Hope confirmed that.



Post Edited (01-11-05 09:30)

[Silver Charm]

Can\'t respond in detail now.

Gulch came from Jolley. Lukas sprinted him instead of running him a mile and half.

Thunder Gulch came from Kimmel. Look at his Sheet in the archives for past DERBY WINNERS. Lukas picked him up either after the Cowdin or Hollywood Futurity. He moved up

Azeri was broken down, crippled and a tragedy waiting to happen. Three Grade One wins later........

Steinlen is still the only horse to win the Arlington Million and the BC Mile in the same year.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

SC,

\"Another example of an overlooked juvenile was Thunder Gulch. (Lukas overlooked him) The 1995 Three-Year-Old Male Champion and dual Classic Winner was purchased by Ken Ellenberg at the 1993 Keeneland July select sale for $40,000. The colt was consigned to the 1994 Keeneland April juvenile sale by Dr. Jerry Bailey, where Thunder Gulch failed to meet the reserve price of $125,000. Bailey and Ellenberg then privately sold a half-interest in the future Eclipse Award Winner to New York businessman Howard Rozin. After a number of outstanding performances under the tutelage of John Kimmel, the son of Eclipse Award Winning Sprinter Gulch was sold to Michael Tabor and transferred to the barn of D. Wayne Lukas. Thunder Gulch won four grade one races, including the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont Stakes, the Travers Stakes and the Florida Derby, en route to career earnings of $2,915,086.\"

http://www.racereadysales.com/news_5-4.asp

SC, at two he was second in the Hollywood Futurity and Cowdin and won the Remson. The question is when did Lukas get him the horse was a prospect very early. But I appreciate the clarification. Lukas did not have him all along.

Gulch was always able to sprint. Just when did Lukas pick him up and confirm it? If you\'re saying Lukas confirmed him as a sprinter, I\'ll agree....lol. I just don\'t remember when he picked him up, but the horse had talent early. My guess Frankel would have made a modern Gulch a 10 mark Grade I winner. I\'d dead serious.

I thought Lukas did a good job with Steinlein I think I even cashed a bet on him.



Post Edited (01-11-05 11:02)

I break these move up/super trainers into several groups.

Those that develop lightly raced horses of high quality significantly over time.  I don't see the big deal with this group.  Some guys have a barn full of tigers to work with almost every year and do a great job of developing them, spotting them where they belong, and getting a high percentage of winners out of them.  Their success attracts other wealthy owners who give them even more top horses and a self-reinforcing pattern of success develops.  I've been seeing trainers that fall into this category since the 70s and I don't think many of them are cheating because they do have ups and downs.

Those that move up OLDER horses that they recently acquired from another trainer (lightly raced young horses are expected to move up) .  If the horse was acquired from a trainer of lesser competence I don't see a problem.  If he was acquired from another highly regarded horseman, I am more suspicious.  However, I think time is also a factor. If trainer "X" takes over the training of a horse and 2-3 months later he's hitting new tops that could easily be the result of a different training regimen, nutrition, care etc..  It's the big move ups by older horses coming from another competent trainer in only a couple of weeks that are a problem. The reality is that there aren't all that many of those. There are clearly some though.

However, handicappers shouldn't be complaining. It's the owners and fair trainers that should be complaining. Handicappers should view this as part of the game no matter why it is occurring. Instead of whining about drugs, milkshakes, etc.... keep track of who the move up trainers are and what their modus operandi is and simply adjust your betting.  These situations can be a source of profits.  If you know trainer "X" often moves up horses in a certain situation, there may be plenty of bettors that are just looking at the raw figures, trips, class etc.... and that could create an overlay situation. So exploit it when you can and take it into account when making your odds line.

[TGJB]

CH-- I agree with some of this, don\'t with some. Yes, it is much harder to tell whether a trainer is moving up his horses if he has the horse from the start. But in the spring of 01, Frankel\'s entire barn moved up about 4 points in a 2 month period-- and they were almost all older horses, because that\'s what he trains. We heard later that\'s when Allday started working for him.

I don\'t agree that it is not my concern as a handicapper that trainers are cheating (and that doesn\'t even address the issue of competing with them on the racetrack). I don\'t want to guess, and I don\'t want to play a game in which there is a large amount of what amounts to inside information-- someone knows more than me, and they are competing with me in the pools. At best, it takes getting beat by a few jump-ups before we figure out what\'s going on, and overall it introduces another hard to quantify variable, even if you have info or deduce something is going on. If we know what we are doing as handicappers, we want as little of that as possible.

If I was making the rules there would be 24 hour detention barns at every track, they would be freezing samples, trainers and vets would be required to sign off on everything administered for every race, and there would be a vet of record listed in the program.

JB,

I wasn\'t being specific to Frankel even though I know that most of the thread was about him. I was just making general commentary because there are a few trainers under suspicion because of superior results that IMO are not cheating.  

I used to feel exactly the way you do when it comes to the gambling aspect of this. In fact, I used to get into heated debates about it because I felt the insiders had a huge edge and I could never get it right. However, the reality of it is that a few of the best horseplayers I know don\'t make make much money with speed figures, pace figures, sophisticated field strength analysis, bias, trips, etc... They make almost all their money off trainer changes and patterns among the supposed juice guys. They notice \"meaningful\" things quickly before it gets built into the odds, get off at the right time etc...

So like it or not, there\'s substantial profits in it if you focus on it and get very skilled at it. The guys I am talking about whine when nobody seems to be juicing their horses a lot because they can\'t find profitable situations. :-)

At this point I realize that this type of thing is not one of my strengths. I think I don\'t have the insights needed to be profitable and even if I do I am not  comfortable when I feel like I am guessing. So I focus on the races where I believe it isn\'t a factor as often (grades stakes vs. claimers etc...) When I am unsure what\'s going on in one of these big races I just pass.

At least it has stopped bothering me. I don\'t play maiden races with a lot of first time starters or turf races with a lot of first time turfers either even though I know a guy that rarely bets anything except races like that. It comes down to my skill set and insights. The money is there to be made.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB wrote:

> If I was making the rules there would be 24 hour detention
> barns at every track, they would be freezing samples, trainers
> and vets would be required to sign off on everything
> administered for every race, and there would be a vet of record
> listed in the program.
>  

I like that. Its a simple rememdy that sheds a little sunshine on the performance issus. The vet listing should be done immediately.

Assuming the couple reports I\'ve read are accurate and the Vet is referring to his work as \"Titration\" related, I\'ve somewhat deduced that whatever is being administered is in regard to oxygen saturation/latic acid neutralization.  The substance is either not on the compound list or its breaking down quickly so it leaves no trace of restricted substances.

I\'m not a chemist, I dont know what you neutralize lactic acid with or if sufficient amounts of oxygen discourage its formation. The EPO thing has also never left the back of my mind. It supposedly stimulated the production of oxygen carrying red blood cells.

[TGJB]

EPO definitely helps create red blood cells-- it\'s a drug developed for humans with anemia. Bases (like sodium bicarbonate, originally used in \"milkshakes\"), neutralize lactic acid. EPO is not a race day drug-- they get built up over a few weeks. Milkshakes are raceday drugs, and whatever they are putting in them now is much more effective than 5 years ago.

Also have heard something about a feed additive used on trotters (Stan Bergstein\'s column), but I\'ve seen no followup.

When I was doing the research for \"Are Racehorses Getting Faster\", I read writings of two different scientists who mentioned a ceiling on performance caused by oxygen limits and lactic acid buildup. What did they know.

[NoCarolinaTony]

JB,

Since we are on the subject here\'s a link to the Bloodhorse article

http://opinions.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=25964

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB wrote:

 Bases (like sodium
> bicarbonate, originally used in \"milkshakes\"), neutralize
> lactic acid.  Milkshakes are raceday drugs, and whatever
> they are putting in them now is much more effective than 5
> years ago.

Interesting, I thought milkshaking was to get oxygen into the horse. I know oxygen enters the bloodstream through the lungs, but don\'t see any reason why it can\'t be absorbed into the bloodstream via the stomach or intestine as oxygen or in compound form that breaks down into oxygen while in the blood. If they are introducing it as a base to counter lactic acid, the base would have to be picked up by the muscle where the latic acid builds up is my understanding.  It may be, I did not know that. But, my biology is rudimentary and chemistry worse. My suspicion is some Vets have very good chemistry training.

Appreciate your insights I\'ll try and find the stories.

CtC

O.K. confirmed the bicarbonate reduces lactic acid. Thats apparently what its for.

\"Sodium bicarbonate buffering has been suggested for people to neutralize lactate (lactic acid) buildup during high intensity weight training. The MAJOR problem is that since it is sodium bicarbonate, taking it will jack up your sodium levels incredibly. One teaspoon is something like twice the daily maximum and effective buffering requires a good bit more. We considered the idea of using Calcium Carbonate, but apparently bicarbonate is effective at a different pH range and CaCO3 would not have the same benefits. And remember, high sodium levels contribute directly to high blood pressure, which is not a good thing when training hard.\"
 http://members.shaw.ca/bodybuilding/Muscles/Lactic_Acid.html



Post Edited (01-11-05 19:24)

[Silver Charm]

Bobby Rotten, Sid Vicious, where else but on this Board. (lol)

Lukas picked up Gulch during the layoff between his three year old and four year old campaigns. Whether or not that was before owner Peter Brandt went ot jail, while he was in jail, or after he got out of jail. I will defer to you.

Seems as though Brandt would have been an appropriate owner for Criminal Type and yet Calumets Lundy certainly didn\'t let anyone down in that regards.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

SC,

I respect Wayne. He scares the **** out of me. And truthfully what he said about Consolidator bothers me...lol If he had Frankels mojo he\'d be right at the top again.

[BitPlayer]

Just to complicate matters a bit, the following is an excerpt from an article entitled \"Lactic acid--the latest performance-enhancing drug\" that appeared in the August 20, 2004 issue of Science (a prestigious journal):

\"For many athletes, coaches, and sports commentators, muscle fatigue and the accumulation of lactic acid (generated from the anaerobic breakdown of glycogen) are more or less synonymous. However, the importance of lactic acid in muscle fatigue is now under scrutiny.  On page 1144 of this issue, Pedersen et al. present a further challenge to the traditional view with their demonstration that lactic acid, in fact, has beneficial effects on the performance of fatigued muscles.\"

On a related subject, I wonder if it\'s not a bit of a logical leap to assume that move-up trainers are \"cheating.\"  Given that steroids and any number of other things are not illegal (I\'m amazed by some of the things I\'ve learned reading this board), it seems to me equally likely that the vets to move-up trainers have come up with some combination of treatments and/or chemicals that enhance performance without clearly violating the letter of the law.  People take advantage of gray areas in other pursuits.  I\'m not sure why treating race horses should be any different.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bit, you may be right on with that, they\'ve allowed a lot of medication in the game and theres items not on the prohibited lists that one day will be. The thing that bothers me is that I\'m not enamored with conditions that allow the horse with the best chemist to win. In my opinion, thats what TGJB was saying with his imput this thread. Make them announce medications and freeze samples for later determinations. If they dont announce and its later determined they were running on something. Penalites. The trainer is the guarantor of the horse\'s condition. All state racing substance statutes require that.