My Imaginary Eclipse Votes and How to Handicap the Derby

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Two-Year-Old Male: Afleet Alex

Two-Year-Old Female:  Sweet Catomine

Three-Year-Old Male: Smarty Jones (Honorable Mention Birdstone)

Three-Year-Old Female: Ashado

Older Male: Ghostzapper

Older Female: Sightseek

Sprinter:  Pico Central (BRZ)

Male Turf Horse:  Kitten\'s Joy

Female Turf Horse: Ouija Board (GB) (Should disqualify myself here)

Steeplechase: (I do disqualify myself here...lol)

Owner: Michael Gill

Breeder: Adena Springs/Stronach Entities,

Trainer: Pass

Jockey:  John Velazquez

Apprentice Jockey: Pablo Fragoso

And now for something completely different. The Derby. FYI (if you didn\'t know already) Lukas says \"Consolidator\" is \"one of the ones\". Whatever that means. Maybe thats why Silver Charm went out on the limb so early with him. He\'s undoubtedly been communicating with D.Wayne. My personal feeling is that its easier for Lukas to say \"He\'s one of the one\'s\" now because he has fewer to be optimistic about.

But I\'d like to point out a tried and true handicapping principle this year. Its 100% effective. When you have handicapped the race then look to see who Crist and Beyer selected as their winners. If you\'re lucky, they will have selected different horses. Toss them both out. Sometimes the way to the winners circle is to winnow them down first.


CtC



Post Edited (01-05-05 17:49)

[Tony]

Ctc,

Excellent point! I have used the Beyer angle for years. Another good one is taking the track handicapper and tossing his win selection. Usually your eliminating one of the three favorites from the win position. They pick all favorites and connect only on three chalks if their lucky.

[bdhsheets]

I could never vote Gill for top anything. He\'s been busted for using drugs in the past and that DQ\'s him forever in my book.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bdhsheets,

Not that it really matters, but I\'m dead against drugs and excessive drinking. If it were up to me I would disqualify many folks in many areas over drug use. But how can you not count the votes for a horse owner over past drug usage and not hold elected folks to the same standard? Gill has accrued good enough horseflesh to accomplish the noteworthy, even if HE is using/has used drugs, but I understand your point.

I am more prone to hold it against him \"if\" his horses are using drugs.



Post Edited (01-06-05 18:42)

[Silver Charm]

You selected Sightseek over Azeri.

Are you using DRUGS?? (lol)

[bdhsheets]

CtC:

Sorry I didn\'t explain myself clearly. Mr. Gill was busted for a lengthy period for using drugs on his horses some years ago. Mr Shuman and he turned GP upside down two years ago shattering records and cutting off a dead horses leg to add intrigue to the whole mess.

For this swine to an Eclipse Award, to justify his methods, would be a damn shame.

[bdhsheets]

Some disagreements:

Three-Year-Old Male: Smarty Jones (Honorable Mention Birdstone; arrrrrgh!!! anyone crushed by Sinister G [a nice TG play, btw] Tricky Taboo and Little Math Man can\'t be honorable mention, lol)

Wouldn\'t Kitten\'s Joy have won this award had he won the BC Turf? Woulda had two wins vs older. His Secretariat went faster than the Arlington Million.

Older Female: Sightseek

I think Azeri did more.

Sprinter: Pico Central (BRZ)

Ghostzapper picks up another trophy, can\'t see him losing to either Pico or Speightstown. His 1:20.42 in the Tom Fool earned a minus 4 if memory serves. GZ is special.  

Female Turf Horse: Ouija Board (GB) (Should disqualify myself here)

Hate the Euro one time runners that win the Eclipse [With Anticipation was royally screwed], but Ouija was the best amongst a weak US contingent this past year.

Steeplechase: (I do disqualify myself here...lol)

McDynamo

Owner: Michael Gill

Frank only because the other two are too slimy for me.

Breeder: Adena Springs/Stronach Entities,

Trainer: Pass

Asmussen grudgingly [3 \"super-vitamin\" guys] Shattering Van Bergs record counts for something I guess. 25% win clip with 2300 starters, geeze.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm wrote:

> You selected Sightseek over Azeri.
>
> Are you using DRUGS?? (lol)

lol

Seriously,

Sightseek won three Grade I\'s and crushed Azeri.

Azeri won three grade I\'s with Sightseek running a good second. (They meet twice)

Sightseek also won other races. Azeri did not.

Sightseek had a much higher 2004 winning percentage.

I don\'t give Azeri any credit for getting beaten handily twice by the boys. I discount her over it. Lukas had his chance for the Eclipse. He needed to run her in the Distaff and he blew it. Though I suspect that wasn\'t his decision.


Bdh,

You really don\'t like my Birdstone \"honorable mention\"?...lol
Well, Sinister G. did run on a tractor path during that race. As bad as Bird\'s Lane\'s End and Derby were, the following two were good.

I\'m not thoroughly familiar with the responsibility chain for drug positives, but to my knowledge it would generally be a difficult stretch to link them to the owner. I\'m sure its occasionally done and may have been done in Gill\'s case but I\'m not aware of it. Shuman is certainly a suspect, but to my knowledge Gill has a few trainers.

Regarding the horses leg. The horse broke down and was put down. The vet cut its leg off, ostensibly to study. He still had the leg and turned it over to the authorities. I don\'t see the problem. When they bother burying horses they cut off the head, heart and hooves, bury those and send the body for animal food processing. (At least they did) My Golden Retriever loved Alpo \"Horsemeat\". I also think i\'ve seen the lower leg of Lexington or some other foundation sire that was cut off. I think they have Lexington\'s whole skeleton somewhere, so I must have seen some other stallions leg.

From my perspective, its hard to hold Gill accountable for cheating, but not hold trainers, like those up for the award, responsible. Those trainers may or may not have positives, but I think we know whats going on.

Heres a little more from the Thoroughbred Times on Gill. My problem is why is Gill getting all the attention when Frankel is doing the same thing? The cut off leg, is that the difference?:

\"Shuman was recently cleared of any wrongdoing in the incident, but Gill claimed that Gulfstream had laboratory results on the leg by February 21 but did not release those results until a month later after his lawyer threatened to sue. Track veterinarian Mary Scollay had requested testing for blocking agents, but synovial fluid withdrawn from Casaul Conflict's joints tested positive for only phenylbutazone and euthanasia agents.

\"They knew the leg was clear but it took my lawyer to get them to get the information out of them,\" Gill said.\"

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/search/searchdetail.asp?Section=&RecordNo=31970

One last story from the \"Times\" I thoroughly agree with. I feel similar about Frankel. That is he can\'t be barred from the game until they can prove it. Gill was caught on a substance violation as a trainer, years back.:

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/search/searchdetail.asp?Section=&RecordNo=32640



CtC



Post Edited (01-07-05 08:06)

[HP]

Chuckles,

I don\'t think you have all the details striaght on the Gill/sawed off leg story. I\'d have to go with bdh on this... He\'s some piece of work.  HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

HP,

I posted the stories. They don\'t have anything on the leg. It wasn\'t nerved and there were no blocking agents. The question arises, \"Was it a leg from the animal that went down.\" I think the officials were satisfied it was.

I think the guy is an aggressive, hands on guy. Which is not to say, he\'s not finding a way to win, but so is Frankel with better horses. Assume for a moment he didn\'t cut the leg off to hide something. What do you make of that? I think most owners probably say: \"oh well, i liked that horse, the vet said he fractured sesamoids.\" Gill may be trying to figure things out to help him when he claims or bids at sales. Delaware Park can\'t deny him access upon suspicion even if they have a state law that says they can. Theres Federal issues. He\'s gonna win that lawsuit and maybe large legal fees and fines will impact their purse structure and/or drive Delaware Park out of business. Claiming is part of this game, Iwiniski and Lake know that.

Until they catch him, I\'m gonna root for him until they treat Frankel the same way.

CtC

[beyerguy]

When will they give a \"Public Handicapper of the Year\" Eclipse award?

[mrhill]

If I\'m not mistaken Michael Gill used to be a trainer and was caught using drugs...

[Silver Charm]

Gill met with a group of reporters this morning at one of his barns and declared:

\"I\'m Clean\"