Ghostzap Hangover

[HP]

I can only hope that there is enough of a Ghostzapper hangover next year so everybody bets Frankel down again.  

I look forward to seeing if he paired up those negative 6\'s.  I know he wasn\'t wide...the final time looked pretty snappy.  The 2yo colts went slower than the fillies and they looked a few TG lengths faster going in, so perhaps the track slowed down a little as the day wore on...

I bet against Frankel with confidence all day after seeing his horse take a little money and run up the track in the first race.  I got there early to bet against the Cole Norman entry after watching one of his faves finish last or next to last on Thurs.  I got DQ\'d out of that first race exacta which would have been about $1,000!  Yeesh.  
I ended up with the early Pick 3 which was a decent consolation prize but otherwise zip.  Hopefully someone hit one of the big tris or supes...

HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I sucked, but Ghostzapper surprised me.

I bet against him on Frankels poor early performers and the no juice could be administered theory. I know this horse has some talent, but I\'m literally stunned this horse won the Classic on two distance races one of which was against nothing. I know he scored very high on T-Graphs. I spose at 5-2 I wasn\'t concerned. Perhaps I\'m an eternal skeptic, but I think the needle man was able to sneak in on this guy. One of the weirdest race patterns I\'ve ever seen.

CtC

[clark]

 \"I think the needle man was able to sneak in on this guy\" -Chuckles

When the following is taken into account (1)how poorly ALL of Frankel\'s other horses performed (LJ, NTL, ME, Snorter), (2)how handily this horse defeated such a classy field, and most importantly (3)the proud way that Stronach (and Stronach only) paraded this horse around before entering the winners circle.  I gotta believe the word came down from on high to let the needle man do his thing.

[HP]

I wouldn\'t go that far.  I just think Ghostzapper laid over the field.  I hoped he would get tired butting heads with the other speed, but I have to say it was one of the most impressive performances, visually, that I\'ve ever seen.  I was watching the fractions thinking the whole way \"he\'s going to get baked.\"  He positively dusted them.  I don\'t think it was the needle-man or Stronach, I think he was just THAT much better going in and perhaps no one else ran that great either.  Like I said, I\'m curious about the fig...and usually I don\'t get too curious once it\'s over.

HP

[jimbo66]

Chuckles,

I haven\'t been using the T-Graph sheets too long.  Would you mind explaining why you think that Ghostzapper\'s pattern is \"one of the weirdest race patterns\" you\'ve seen.  He was the fastest horse coming in, having paired up negative 6.5\'s.  He was fast last year, having run negative 3 and 4.  If he bounced 3 or even 4 points, he probably was still going to win.

HP,

Not sure why you thought Ghostzapper was going to \"get baked\" when you saw the fractions.  23.2 and 47, for that horse on that track, were definitely not fast.  He was my biggest bet of the day (had 5-1 on him in a bet I made last week) and with each fraction that posted, I was more confident.  I am not saying he won because the pace was slow, but any pre-race concerns about suicidal pace duels were gone by the first quarter mile split.  That 23.2 was run in a complete straighaway, like the Derby is run.  You would expect with Roses in May, Azeri, Funny Cide and possibly Newfoundland gunning, that it was likely to be sub 23.

Bottom line is that the numbers were right on this guy.  JB and Beyer agreed (I don\'t know about Ragozin) that this was the fastest horse in the last 20/30 years.  Why shouldn\'t he win?

[HP]

Jimbo,

I don\'t know what you mean by \"that horse on that track\".  47 flat and 1.11 and change for six and I\'m expecting them to weaken at 1-1/4, not speed up.  Especially if he\'s not out there by himself.  Hats off to the horse.  Like I said, he ran great.  There\'s no doubt he laid over the field on the figs...  HP

[jimbo66]

HP,

What I mean is that I completely disagree with you that 47 is fast for that race.  

The fillies went 46.3 and 1:10.2 in the Distaff.  Granted that race is an eighth of a mile shorter, but the Classic horses are much better animals.  Remember the fractions for Roses In May in the Whitney, 45 and change, 1:08 and change.  And last year\'s 1 1/4 mile classic, Congaree and Medaglia d\'Oro went 46.1 and 1:10.1.  

Ghostzapper\'s pace wasn\'t quick.  It was \"fair\".  When the \"pace figure\" guys do their match, I am sure they will agree.

But you are 100% right, who would expect that a dirt horse would ACCELERATE into the last 1/4 mile of a 1 1/4 mile race.  I don\'t remember the last time I saw that.  It happens in slow paced turf races all the time, but I can\'t remember the last dirt race where that happened.  That is what makes this horse the \"freak\" that he is.  That was an incredible performance.  1:59 flat and if you watch the replay you will see Castellano stopped riding the horse 100 yards before the finish, and started pumping his right hand in victory.  Maybe could have a tick or two faster if he had to!!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jimbo66 wrote:

> Chuckles,
>
> I haven\'t been using the T-Graph sheets too long.  Would you
> mind explaining why you think that Ghostzapper\'s pattern is
> \"one of the weirdest race patterns\" you\'ve seen.  He was the
> fastest horse coming in, having paired up negative 6.5\'s.  He
> was fast last year, having run negative 3 and 4.  If he bounced
> 3 or even 4 points, he probably was still going to win.
>

I\'m talking about not seeing a two turn race til late August of his 4 yr old year. I find that very unusual.

5-2 on a day when Frankels other animals ran like mere mortals did not fill me with enthusiasm regardless of the neg 6.5\'s A figure is a figure but you have to contemplate how they are earned .......or not earned. I\'d say Jerry got it right, but you have to ask yourself \"How is the horse running that fast?\"



Post Edited (10-31-04 22:01)