Kee R2

[rezlegal]

Go to horse tourneys.com and horseplayers.com. A deposit in one can be used for both. Horseplayers is NHC and BCBC. Horsetourneys is money and other handicapping tournaments. You will get the hang of it after a bit.  Good luck R

[Fairmount1]

Tav,

They are betting after the start of the race is a logical conclusion one can draw.  

Their crazy punches are not so crazy once they have seen the favorite have a bad break.  As I said, they bet the 578 for the Score.  The 411 were used with those if I recall as hedges.  

Roberts Communications provides CAW\'s with a Live Feed.  ADW\'s do not have this exact live feed.  The final cycle settles in at 19 seconds in this instance. I don\'t know how many seconds they have but they have some amount time in my opinion.  I\'m not the first to highlight this common thread but I\'ve seen it since at least early summer more notably than ever.  As I have said several times, they have the ability to make 10k bets in a single second; but the pool doesn\'t settle until 19 seconds??  Hmmm...  

Now that enough time has passed and the race won\'t be identified, there was one instance where the favorite broke poorly, the other contender was made the favorite but only for the original and most logical on paper favorite to be good enough to overcome the poor start and run down the loose leader in a stakes race.  Extra time is not an infallible method if it is only the first furlong plus.  But it is a big edge if you can toss heavy favorites that need to be close or in front early.

As I\'ve said several times, shut them out of all the pools at two minutes and you will see that for this and other reasons, they won\'t be nearly as successful.

[Boscar Obarra]

That\'s a fun theory, but imagine the logistics of having to decide what gets played within a few seconds of the start .   No way they are betting for 10 seconds.   Kind of hard to prove that though  , since the pool updates on retail ADW\'s are so slow.

 Then you\'d have to get away with this for years, with no one blowing the whistle.

[Boscar Obarra]

https://x.com/socialtippers/status/1979570196684956075

This tweet pretty good highlight of how and what they bet.

Old news to me , like 20 years  old.

[Fairmount1]

June 21, 2025.  BAQ, Race 10.  

4-5 winning exacta went from 114-1 to 41-1.
18-1, 6th choice with 4-1 3rd choice.  

Favorite, Perugia, 1.10-1.   PERUGIA got away to an awkward start when splaying her legs at the break
_________________________

August 11, 2025, Finger Lakes, Race 5.

Iron Man Ira was Even money but subsequently after the break went off at 2-1 as the 2nd choice.  Every single exacta went UP involving Iron Man Ira in the final cycle.

2nd Choice once final pool settled: IRON MAN IRA Stumbled badly at the start tossing the jockey to the track.

________________________

Oct. 16, 2025, Keeneland, Race 2

The decrease on the winning exacta well documented here and elsewhere.

Favorite:  MATTY\'S BABY stumbled at the start,

________________________

Sept. 11, 2025. BAQ, Race 8

3-10 winning exacta $689 to $188.
25-1 8th choice with 7-1 5th choice.

Favorite:  BEIRA coaxed from the gate, chased eight paths off the inside down the backstretch, tucked five then four wide into the turn, briefly tucked three wide and was placed to a protective hold nearing the five-sixteenths, got eased up into upper stretch before being pulled up straightened away, then was attended to and vetted on track and subsequently transported off the course via the equine ambulance.

[BitPlayer]

Boscar -

Since you understand this, what is column C?  Is it (a) the amount invested in the last cycle or (b) the grand total invested after the last cycle?  If (b), that\'s just the math of parimutuel betting, but if (a) that\'s interesting to me.

[Boscar Obarra]

C - B , is the amount bet on the last flash (CAW)

[Roman]

https://archive.is/20250722140016/https://www.wsj.com/us-news/texas-lottery-gamblers-jackpot-win-40e3d6fb

https://www.smh.com.au/national/36m-in-profits-gambling-business-just-a-hobby-ato-told-20120802-23gpf.html

https://www.tradematesports.com/en/blog/zeljko-ranogajec-sports-betting

This quote says it all. \"Ranogajec himself said; “it’s simple, if you bet $100 and lost $5, but you get a 10% rebate, you still make 5%. You always win, if you bet very large and it’s a pari-mutuel pool, you depreciate it so far that you end up getting under fair odds. If you fix something at $8, you get six, but if you get a rebate it puts you into the positive.”

[Roman]

TGJB was instrumental in banning CAW\'S 2MTP in New York.  Wish more tracks would follow suit.

[Roman]

Where can somebody source this information,  the information Pat Cummings always shares. Like what time the last batch of wagers , and combos in the last cycle? Is that private info that gets leaked? Or is it public?

[BitPlayer]

Thanks.  I should have been able to figure that out for myself by looking at the chart.  That said, I think the X post is a little misleading.  Column E is just the total exacta pool minus takeout.  In parimutuel betting, it is always equal to the amount bet on a combo times the payoff on that combo.  \"Hedging parity\" suggests that the CAWs bet enough to make them indifferent to the outcome.  If that is what they were trying to do (which seems unlikely), they did it imperfectly.

[TGJB]

I might or might not have played a part in their thinking, but even if so I was way short of instrumental.

[Boscar Obarra]

Good catch on that .  Those numbers were suspiciously close , lol

 Even so , I did a few calcs , too lazy to type them all in .  Pretty sure all the bets produced substantial profit if hit, even if the dutch was imperfect.

The winning number returned  127,000 +

[Fairmount1]

A long message with exact quotes I attempted to post wouldn\'t post.  The website continues to struggle here with no link features beyond copy and paste and no ability to Bold, Underline, Etc.  And now often messages don\'t even post.  

Short version:  Check out Frank Scatoni\'s Replies from yesterday on x.  

He states that tellers once had a grace period of 5 seconds to cancel bets.  And when horses as favorites break bad or don\'t make the front, he theorizes if they (CAW\'s) can still exploit this loophole if it still exists.  

So maybe they are not past posting and maybe they are prepared for Past Canceling which fits the profile of the ones I listed above.  Again, he clearly states it is not a fact just a possibility.  

I had the exact quotes typed out but the message would not POST despite several attempts.

[Boscar Obarra]

I\'m well aware of the cancel feature as this goes back to the 90\'s .

  Tell ya what, if the caw are making $10,000 bets and cancelling within some 5 second window ,  just shut the game down now, and arrest everyone involved.

  I don\'t think that\'s happening, but it should be impossible to do.  I thought I saw a quote claiming they could not cancel bets.    I rarely see anyone cancelling  even mid betting, except for a mistake thats obvious .