When the Bad Streaks Start How Do You Handle Them

[Silver Charm]

I can come and go in patterns. Hot, then nothing is working. I try and stick to the same wagering principals or rules. My rules others may think differently. What I don\'t want to do is start zigging when I should be zagging.

So over the last 3 weeks, and this is a time of the year where Im not playing a lot, so it may be a streak of say 0-6 or 0-8. However that wagering is about to pick up. Or maybe not.

After finishing \"red hot\" Pacific Classic Day while out at Delmar I wake up have breakfast finish coffee and walla Saratoga is first post. Its 8:30AM. I played small on one race and the Jockey Club which had a 10:30AM post I thought Mindframe might be tough. And he wasn\'t favored. Obliterated at the start, losing wager. I promptly left and went Canyon Hiking. Next weekend Kentucky Downs is running and I said this place is nuts. Made two small plays and whatever could go wrong did. Last weekend Good Cheer goes from 5/2 morning line to 6/5 first blink. Now what? The same day I played Miami Hurricanes minus 1.5 in a Teaser with Green Bay also minus 1.5. GB is up 10-0 with 10 minutes to go and figures out how to lose in regulation with every possible gaffe known to sports betting.

I don\'t play a lot of Pick 5\'s or go ALL in races where one of them wins but the other 9 are losers. You can have tickets where you win but lose $$. Losing streaks can last longer chasing HUGE scores. That\'s just me. I like to protect my Capital for when I see something I REALLY like.

I tend to play more in spots. There is no such thing as I AM DUE SO FIRE. I will still wager but more slowly trying to rinse the bad streak or bad luck out. I am curious how others handle this.

[Gary Irish]

Hello Silver

I have been playing for over 50 years. I\'m sure I\'m down many thousands of dollars over the years. I don\'t have regrets except for my reluctance to change what wasn\'t working. I remember clearly when rolling pick threes came to AP. Unfortunately, I had a tremendous day not long afterwards, and thought this would continue. What a mistake.
Don\'t get me wrong, some of my best scores have been horizontal. I bought furniture for my house thanks to a day at the Kee fall meet 1998.

But those kind of scores are rare. My favorite line ever was uttered by a P6 winner. He said \"It couldn\'t have rained on a drier crop.\" Can you relate? I can.

I may have finally learned my lesson - the right one. Vertical betting. Have you ever started a horizontal with a nice price only to see it die on the vine later? Didn\'t score on that good opinion? That is/was me.

That won\'t happen again. I hardly play horizontal beyond doubles. If I must, I place a $10 limit on such wagers. It is a defensive position that allows the \"lightning strikes\" possibility. I recently cashed 5/6 on a $3 ticket at NYRA. It paid $12k with the one I missed. I do not say \"what if\".

My conversion has been recent, and not without loss lessons. But these days I can play a race for $6 with a chance to get 20-1 or better every time. Few supers pay less than $10 for a dime. That is 100-1. Of course I\'m not playing it straight, but I can find a key. Early results are promising.

Think about it. The game is full of players who do well hitting at 20%. I\'m talking about jockeys/trainers, but you could apply the same logic to baseball, etc.... What are the chances a batter will get five straight hits? Not very good. When you start spreading you risk playing \"not to lose\" instead of going for the win. It is so great after a race that doesn\'t go your (my) way to simply turn the page and start it all again instead of trying to begin another PickN that is subject to the randomness and misreads that will always be part of the game.
Rich C recently made a key point - \"How good are you?\" Know your limits.

[Boscar Obarra]

MANY years ago,  I hit a 5 figure score for a $100 bet at Monmouth, nailing an $1800 tri 13 times.

  Took  a very long time to get over Tripleitis (as a another player called it)
   
   This is long before the Pick-X or superfecta.   I\'m sure many have been infected with their own \'itis\' playing those.

[Silver Charm]

I think the Handicappers of today are far better than the Handicappers of 35 years ago. As a group that is. And the biggest reason is the data is better and its nearly everywhere. But the problem there is if the data has made everyone better the competition which are the ofher Handicappers are better. So its a wash

Also as you mentioned the menu of wagers available has grown exponentially. Churchill used to have an Early Double. A late Double and that was it. Walk into the Track at 1:35 and you were liable to see 5 people walking out. They took their swing at the Early Double, busted out, and now time to go home. There might be 30-50 races I am staring at on a Saturday and I may play 10. Each race has 4-6 different ways to bet it. And that isnt counting WPS.

Patience and discipline are the best recipes for me to avoid long losing streaks. There is a reason the Rainbow 6 or something similar keeps carrying over. They are hard to hit. Which means you lose over and over again.  

If I bet $500 a week for 52 weeks that is north of $25,000 a year. If I het double that then its $50,000 a year. If the latter is the amount (and that is certainly high. I bet  bigger on some days and some weekends, not all. If I churned out a 20% Profit I will take it all day every day. Winning a $75K score on a Pick 6 and losing the other 51 weeks doesn\'t work for me. I dont pkay Belterra or Canterbury or Maiden $12 5K races. I look for consistency and those returns can grind along. And so do the losses

[Gary Irish]

I have no patience or discipline. Before I retired I mostly played once a week. You think I\'m gonna sit there and watch on my day to play (lol)?

It hasn\'t improved much these days, especially where I live. Entertainment options are limited. So I play and play.

The reason the Rainbow Six keeps carrying over is that it is in the Jackpot format. The pool carries unless a single ticket cashes. In SoCal, you could not have a more ridiculous premise. I\'m glad they changed it, but I already left.

How about Nash (6-1) in the Vosburgh? I notice history repeated in that he was compromised at the start again - both Toga starts. I speculate sometimes if a horse\'s memory can recall a bad event at a certain place. I\'ll say this - he took a lot of dirt last time. Prat is hitting .600 for Brad at the Big A in recent past. How\'s that for good?

[ajkreider]

If I knew when a bad streak was starting, there wouldn\'t be an issue. But the bad streaks aren\'t bad streaks until I\'m knee deep already.

[Silver Charm]

Gary I think you are on to something with Nash. Aside the fact Pratt and Cox are 60% and the runner is 6-1 well put that on your ROI spreadsheet. Nash was always hyped, hard bet and disappointed. However, they fast forced a stretch out because they were looking for a Derby type horse. Now he is just sprinting. This is Lasix off and we can see how it went the last 2 runs without.  But he also got roughed up at the start in both too. He has a shot

1st race is a 2YO Maiden going a mile. There are 8 horses and the combined purchase prices are $8,000,000. And the 6 was bought for $12.5k. Pletcher has a $5,000,000 son of Curlin

The Joe Hirsch is interesting and named after a legend writer. Those were the days reading his DRF. Rebels Romance has won 9 out of his last 12 starts. And he has literally been running all over the World. It\'s a good card on Ryder Cup Saturday in NY.

[Socalman3]

Silver Charm Wrote:

>
> The Joe Hirsch is interesting and named after a
> legend writer. Those were the days reading his
> DRF. Rebels Romance has won 9 out of his last 12
> starts. And he has literally been running all over
> the World.

As Joe Hirsch\'s cousin, thank you for this shout out. Rebels Romance is the type of horse that got most of us to fall in love with this game, and Joe would be honored to be mentioned in the same sentence as a horse like this.

Side note and excuse me while I toot my own horn for a moment - Too bad RichieBee is no longer with us, as he would have loved the story I am about to tell for a number of reasons -- last summer (2024) I was one of three speakers at Joe\'s induction to the Hall of Fame. My wife, born and raised in the Soviet Union and Russia, chose not to come up to Saratoga for the event.  Afterwards, she asked me how did my speech go.  I told her that I cannot remember anything from it, I just froze - but the one thing that really was amazing to me and that I loved was when Joe Namath (Joe Hirsch\'s long time roommate) said \"Thank you, Jonathan\"

She said to me, that old guy?  What\'s the big deal with that?  I told her that she needed to go look on YouTube for Joe Namath 1960s TV (maybe add noxema, L\'eggs, ovaltine) and she would figure it out.

She disappeared for what seemed to me an inordinate amount of time for what she was going to do, and then she came back with a full head of steam and yelling at me in Russian demanding to know why I have been hiding Joe Namath from her and why didnt I tell her about Joe Namath and when is she going to be able to meet him. She did agree with me on the highlight.

Apologies if this is a repeat story. I tried to search to make sure I didnt put it here before but the search function doesnt seem to be working.

[Paolo]

I would love to have seen the Hurricanes get pounded by Green Bay.
The Miami scUM, Co-Canes...
Winning and losing streaks happen. Gators. Hosses. Charlie Sheen.
Life goes on. I\'ve been playing since Tropical Park. Only took jobs that were near a track. Tampa, Phoenix, Livermore, and PBG. Now retired to Living Room Downs.
My lifelong motto in every endeavor... Adapt.

[Silver Charm]

That\'s a great atory. Joe Hirsh was so liked and respected. I mentioned all of the accessibile data out there now and a lot that was Steve Criat with the Racing Times. They came up with that whole career record box like it is on the top right of PP. Put Beyer Speed Figures in PP. They were the ones who made the game better and more fun for the Player\'s. Whomever was to take the Baton from either dropped it or failed to even show up

Americathegreat was steamed by Fairmount before the Debutante. Steamed in thw reference they think they havea nice horse. I\'m thinking Casse looking at Curlin on the top side and AP Indy on the bottom and thinks this one wants to go long. A couple of races in a young runners bottom never hurt. I think Sovereignty started this time a year ago at a mile and lost. And then lost again. Then ran in a CD Stake 1st of November and romped. Casse had a nice winner this week in a hyped 2YO race. This one might do it again for him but its not gonna pay anything

[wrongly2]

Courting a full brother to Clairere trained by Pletcher in the first at Big A.  I\'m really excited to see this one run, these Bernardini mares have just been crushing it!  Hoping the Chads take money but this one might be on a short list behind Englishman.