Kentucky Derby TFig Analysis Animal Kingdom Revision and MAGA Baffert

[T Severini]

Now this handicapper\'s idiosyncrasy is to put the emanations down on paper to clarify the decision to be made. If it gets too zen, don\'t read on.

1. Citizen Bull - The TFigs indicate a fast enough time to win. \"The Commander\" has indicated \"Go with Full Throttle Up\".  If he gets to pace them his own way he can certainly win. \"But I\'m a superstitious man. And if some unlucky accident should befall East Avenue - If he should get a nail in his hoof the night before, or if he should colic in his shedrow stall - or if he\'s lethargic after being struck with a needle, then I\'m going to blame some of the people in his barn, and I have reason to do that.\"

2. Neoequos - The TFigs indicate he\'s sitting on a pair. A number he first laid down at 2. He already wrapped up and put away a horse in Madaket Road that I believe could have hotfooted Citizen Bull but was prevented from doing so. There\'s some questions about his ability to get the trip, however, the TFigs indicate he\'s poised to go forward. Don\'t know a lot about the trainer, but he\'s been successful. If this were my horse he\'d be in a shorter race or on the second circuit. He is in a position to contest the pace again. In the end, my personal view of the Florida Derby points to not using him, but it\'s a nervous pass. (Revision: Despite Distance concerns, Prat aboard leads to a belief he will be second flight rather than hooking up. Revoking from pass to undecided.)

3. Final Gambit - Love the look and balance of this horse. Realistically... He is a second circuit horse and his TFigs though moving in the right direction show him outside of a winner\'s figure window. He is not an Animal Kingdom. The situation is Not analogous.(Revision...this is why handicapping is dynamic...without the old TFigs, he does have a history not dissimilar to Animal Kingdom, who beat me. Won\'t revise conclusion however. Animal Kingdom TFigs: https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/kd2011.pdf) You can\'t bet them all and though he\'s a likely use deep on the ticket. Not an exacta horse for me.

4. Rodriquez - His best race has been to get on the lead and cruise. The hole tends to indicate he will have to go some. (Second tier stalking most likely. The Tappan Street position.) But the lead seems remote for a number of reasons. If at a quarter he is ding donging, Baffert would never ride Mike again. I\'m afraid of this horse and am not done evaluating.

5. American Promise - What jumps out is that his works seem to have dramatically improved off the Virginia Derby. He did show a good TFig in his Last 2YO start. At 3 it took him his third try to improve off it but, it was a good Jerry Mark. Now the question is can he replicate it going two turns? (He has gone 2 turns before.) Well, it looks like that\'s an odd\'s based risk. What\'s in your wallet? Before the form \"change\" he has been beaten by Tiztastic, Chunk of Gold, Publisher and Burnham Square in different races. I can\'t really say his form has changed because the race is a \"one off\" as it stands now. A one off on an inexplicable surface. An anomaly surface. To my mind this is one of the great decisions for this race. Does one invest in this horse as a primary factor, play him with keys as a saver or essentially discount him?  He is bucking and squealing and his background is not entirely dissimilar from Charismatic. If you know what you are going to do, I don\'t.

6. Admire Daytona -

7. Luxor Cafe - Sharing Akjeider\'s perspective that the first Overseas Derby Winner will be at my expense. He sure is put together and a beautiful horse and I will use him in 3rd and 4th.

8. Journalism - I would have preferred a faster final workout. That bothers me some, because I can\'t say with certainty he is grabbing the track. His Daddy liked the track and that may be good enough. I\'m reading about O-2-X and I don\'t buy it. What got him the 2 regression was trouble and not being fully cranked because he was already in (Revision he was not already in.) and he won despite that.  No... If he gets beat it will be trouble or track affinity. He is a legitimate favorite and I will save with him, but will Key to beat him.

9. The Whitham Horse -

10. Grande - He\'s a scary horse. He paired and then popped. Can he go forward from there? If he does he\'s a likely winner. Some of the speed figures to clear inside of him and he could get a nice rail trip as well. It\'s a one off with a good pattern. I don\'t know yet.

11. Flying Mohawk -

12. East Avenue - Directly... I continue to believe this horse could steal this race. If he B.C. Juvenile breaks, so could a Baffert.

13. Publisher -  Can you imagine the talk if a maiden wins the Kentucky Derby? His last two works say he\'s coming along. He wasn\'t getting to Sandman, but he\'s got the right running style to hit the board. This one is going to make me nervous too. That last TFig is getting close, but it will be a wide ride and I\'ll have him in 3rd and 4th. (If I\'m fortunate enough to win the race with Publisher in the exotics, it will be due to TGraph. I wouldn\'t have used him but for the TFigs)

14. Tiztastic - He really has the same pattern as Publisher and I\'ll treat him the same.

15. Render Judgement - Country Legend Toby Keith loved the Derby and was an owner of this horse. Godspeed Toby it\'s a tribute race to you.

16. Coal Battle - What a gutty little horse and the story with the homespun trainer Lonnie Briley is pure poetry. What a great Derby story. You gotta love it.

17. Sandman - Must use, for me up to 2nd. Still have to finish my fractional time analysis so not done evaluating yet.

18. Sovereignty - Don\'t believe he was fully cranked for the Florida Derby and expect better from him with what figures to be a good pace to run at.  Obviously, he will also need to not have a snag in his path. Gonna watch his demeanor with the crowd and how he reacts will determine how far I take him. His effort will be reliable.

19. Chunk of Gold - Sitting on a Pair with forward move anticipated, but he decided to Not work at Churchill. Thats a tough one to abide. Even an improvement leaves doubt about finishing however. You can\'t bet them all.

20. Owen Almighty - Another game little horse facing Mount Everest.

21. Baeza    - If he gets in I\'ll revisit. He is a top contender on TFigs and in my ruminations.

The more scrutiny of this race put in, the more it does appear Baffert is sending Citizen Bull to the front come hell or high water. He was kept in California a long time for permissive treatment in this estimation. He was handled lightly coming in and one could say he needed a race. Citizen just popped a work that says treatment accomplished. All Citizen needs is a gate mishap by a rival to likely be in golden position. His stablemate will hold. Neoequos jockey change to Prat indicates a change in pace. Owen is remote and committed to pace. American Promise is a One Race Wonder... and that\'s a recipe for \"Silver Redemption\". It\'s not unlike Don Trump, somehow working his way back despite all the criminality!  MAGA Baffert!!!

[TGJB]

Much as I hate to say it, if you can get past the annoying self indulgent stuff, that’s pretty good work.

[T Severini]

Thanx, it should be. I learned it from the best.

Generally, the advance betting on the Derby pretty much approximates the Race Time odds correct?  I\'m liking what I\'m seeing.

Didn\'t think the Lukas horse could possibly be 30-1 and am somewhat surprised at Sovereignty being 12-1. Sandman has taken advance money. Really surprised at Render Judgement being as low as he is also. He\'ll probably win!

Opinions!!!

[jbelfior]

Render Judgement\'s odds are the biggest head scratcher besides the Mott horse. I guess more than a few watch Netflix and now they all know who Kenny McPeek is.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Roman]

T, ever think about a news letter?

[mistermoose]

I think render has no shot at all. Owners wanted in and there is only one
chance to run in the derby.Kenny compares this horse to Rattle n Roll.
Might be a good 4yo.