Kentucky Derby Field Set

[Molesap]

Your 2025 Kentucky Derby Field
1-Citizen Bull-20
2-Neoequos-30
3-Final Gambit-30
4-Rodriguez-12
5-American Promise-30
6-Admire Daytona-30
7-Luxor Café-15
8-Journalism-3
9-Burnham Square-12
10-Grande-20
11-Flying Mohawk-30
12-East Avenue-20
13-Publisher-20
14-Tiztastic-20
15-Render Judgment-30
16-Coal Battle-30
17-Sandman-6
18-Sovereignty-5
19-Chunk of Gold-30
20-Owen Almighty-30
AE-Baeza-

[Fairmount1]

Molesap:  I added comments after your list for those interested.
_____________________________

Your 2025 Kentucky Derby Field
1-Citizen Bull-20.  1 hole, part of a wicked pace that likely ensues.  Nope.
2-Neoequos-30.  Inside, close to the fast pace I anticipate.  Whipped by River Thames, Sovereignty, Tappan St.  Not for me.  Nope.
3-Final Gambit-30.  Wild Card.  No one knows.  Cox hasn\'t won a Derby.  His other entrant failed to even make the field.  Pace sets up for him.  Lower 2 rungs of super only.
4-Rodriguez-12.  Can he rate?  Slow fractions early, blasted home late.  Against.
5-American Promise-30.  Lukas new MO is getting these 3yo horses firing late Jan and Feb.  Close to a hot pace potentially but his last was really good.  At these type odds, consider using.
6-Admire Daytona-30.  Looks too slow compared to his Jampan-ion.  But could stay on for 4th as he does try to the end.
7-Luxor Café-15.  Can he run inside?  Kickback in \'merika not as visually bad as Japan so maybe??  He\'s never been inside save the start of his debut.  Will make a Move in the Turn if the kickback hasn\'t done him in.  SHould get an ideal pressing/ahead of the big closers similar to Coal Battle.  If he can run inside of horses, he gets the trip and look out.
8-Journalism-3.  Perfect post.  Little to critique.  Visually doesn\'t make up ground in the Turn even when ridden along.  His best is in the straight when he has a devestating kick.  He can run them down.  Points era History says he is all but guaranteed to hit the super.  I hope he runs 2nd 3rd or 4th instead of winning.  
9-Burnham Square-12.  Has passed every horse he has faced.  If he didn\'t win, he passed them in the gallopout.  Took him til close to the BS with Sovereignty in FOY but he got there.  He always comes running.  Sitting a touch behind Luxor Cafe heading into FT?  Very dangerous.
10-Grande-20.  Pletcher Derby should be an auto toss.  Few things seem a little different with this one.  Wide, troubled first turn Wood, running well late into that slow pace.  He can get a piece.  Not fast enough to win.  Thought his FOY week allowance run was a grinding one.  Underneath.
11-Flying Mohawk-30.  Closer.  Wild Card Dirt.  Underneath use at best.
12-East Avenue-20.  Will win a battle, will win another battle, but will lose the war.  The one close to the pace horse I could see getting into the super hanging on.
13-Publisher-20.  Maiden closer.  Can\'t see him in the win spot.  
14-Tiztastic-20.  Same price as his maiden stablemate after winning LA Derby?   Didn\'t run well at OP but did in La?  Hmmm.  Closer for underneath.  Maybe being overlooked with a trainer that hasn\'t won this race but could.
15-Render Judgment-30.  Wishy washy connections decision for beyond fringe player.  Hope he runs up the track.
16-Coal Battle-30.  Should get an ideal Pressing Trip as you look at the horses to his inside.  Maybe just ahead or next to Luxor into FT.  Touch below on talent it seems.  Can\'t win but may get a call with Luxor as they turn for home and from there  ? ? ?
17-Sandman-6.  Twice has shown the ability to knife inside of horses.  Can\'t be wide both turns and win.  Concerned about CD form.  Concerned about his poor start at Ark.  Weaving Str at ARk Derby.  Tapit blood but solid draw and has a shot for win with ideal trip and no antics.  
18-Sovereignty-5.  Outside post at Fla Derby, slow pace; horse that beat him is gone.  Has he peaked or is he still at or near the head of the class.  This one is a very, very hard read for me so inclined to avoid in win spot at this price.  He did like CD.  When he crossed the wire at FOY, I told friends he could win the Derby.  Struggling with my opinion of him here.
19-Chunk of Gold-30.  Probably not a post they wanted.  Cheering for the little guy.  Not sure if he is up to the task for the win.    
20-Owen Almighty-30.  Wishy washy connections.  See 15.
AE-Baeza-underlaid or not, I would want him over Journalism out of that SA Derby.  Lightly raced, galloped out like a monster there as in his prior two starts.  Thought he had a tough SA trip in a different way than Journalism.  Was run down but depending on the odds if over 12-1, I\'m interested.  I want the best 20 horses in the field and he is one of them.

Odds front:  1st choice, Journalism.  2nd, 3rd, 4th choices:  Guessing it goes Sand Man, Sovereignty, Burnham Square.  

Longest shot on the board:  Owen Almighty?

Now on to all the other races to chase. (Yes, I\'ve seen the TG\'s for these Derby horses, namely Sovereignty, and purposely tried to avoid pointing out their patterns).

[T Severini]

Fairmont... agree with you on get the best and most hyped horses in. It\'s what makes the Derby. If the favorite is best the exotics can still be good.

Krazy Kaplan is a fireworks concern in my vicinity. Go with full throttle up were the commanders last words on one of the ill fated Space Shuttle missions. On the draw, it\'s hard to imagine a result that that would induce a hotter pace than what was just drawn. Now it\'s up to race day track evaluation. A chuck of the speed is tight inside. It appeared Citzen Bull was training for tactical placement. Maybe he still can, but he\'s also got to scoot some early now. East is committed to the lead in my opinion and now has to clear the chunk of speed drawn inside of him: Citizen, Neoequos, Rodriguez and American Promise. Owen Almighty is in the same boat. He can\'t allow the field to obstruct him and must go and go quick.

Tony like horses that overcame trouble and ran good enough to win. In this race that\'s Journalism, The Whitham and East. Having upgraded the Bluegrass. I believe it was a better race than many think. The B.C. Juvenile that Citizen won, East lost all chance at the start. Still, East will have to scoot from the 12 hole early. We\'ll see if I discerned his quick step accurately. Even if I have, there\'s going to be some good horses running at him late.

[Silver Charm]

Nice right up. I am not as questioning on Sovereignty. Mott will have him ready.

[Roman]

It always seems that when you expect a hot pace, they end up going slower.  
Owen Almighty is going to try and rate. East Avenue is absolutely leaving, so will American Promise and Rodriguez , if all get out of the gate well. Neoquos and Citizen Bull are forward running types.

Can someone get to the front , and then give there horse a breather?
Or are we going to see a 44 and change half mile?

Coal Battle is a little slow on figs, but if he can improve,  the horse seems really handy and looks like he can handle traffic really well. Think the rider moved a tad early in the Ark. Derby into that hot pace, almost like he panicked a little. Really like the horse but sure he is fast enough.

Pretty wide open Derby on paper, can\'t wait to hear the seminar and JB\'S thoughts.

Krazy Kaplans gets a nice chunk of my money every 4th of July. Hopefully the derby doesn\'t.

[Fairmount1]

If looking for reasons to bet against Journalism, shout out to \"Alan\" aka \"@DerbyWill\" on X for a post that put me on this path where he detailed the most recent Kee and CD starts for McCarthy.

Since the first of the year, Trainer Mike McCarthy is 0 for 21 in Kentucky.  As stated by the X poster, it may mean nothing.  But if trainers and locations matter to you (and they do to me as long time readers would guess), there ya go.  

21-0-2-3.  

Odds on some these losers include:  2-1, 5-2, 9-2, 9-5, 2-1, 2-1, 9-5, 3-1, 5-2.  Four of those were favored with two of those favs hitting the show spot.  

_______________

Interestingly, during the Oct Keeneland meet (2024) and Nov Churchill meet (2024), his record at those two tracks was 24-6-1-2.  Again, it may mean something and it may mean nothing but certainly worth considering.  TG Seminar covering his horses\' figures in Kentucky this year might be interesting . . .

[johnnym]

With 6 days to go some thoughts.
As we know the best trip usually wins over the best horse.
Everything points to a faster than average pace but I hold some reservations about this.
As was mentioned 25% of the field is speed approx another 25 % presser
25% stalker and the remaining 25% closers. % numbers may not be exact but we get the idea. Horses should be able to find there trip.

1)Citizen Bull: Has to go and has run his best races on the lead with 3 of his wins coming from the lead. Leaning towards tossing.
2)Neoequos: Back of the lead pack lacks staying power. TOSS
3) Final Gambit: Love his PP draw and will definitely be saving ground going into the first turn and as long as the jock can hold it. Short on number power high on visual power with what I believe is the best closer. With a pace meltdown he can win it.
Like him A horse
4)Rodriquez: May Foal, Might just be getting good at the right time.Reports from the downs have been positive. Will save ground and a repeat of his last # or any move forward makes him dangerous. Will get the trip. Possibly a Key horse for me.
5) American Promise: Second May foal, last out he jumped up but it was around one turn. Coming in off a 7 week layoff and training fast. I believe he will be the pace see how long he can go. Leaning towards tossing.
6) Admire Daytona: Honestly have no idea still figuring him out. Like the other Japanese horse better.
7) Luxor Cafe: Any horse that has won 4 in a row has to be taken serious. One replay I saw shows he has a serious turn of foot. Has the running style to win this and his one TG # makes him competitive here. Will use
8)Jounalism: Broke his maiden in a 10 horse. Runs his race and his S.A derby trip and how he over came that was impressive. Has both the fastest Breyer figure and TG figure. Possibly my second key horse.
9) Burnham Sq: Was at the gulf when he won the Holy Bull and have been on him ever since. Strong closing kick with a solid TG pattern. Hernandez should not have an issue saving ground with the inside speed and should be right in front of Gambit. Saving ground trip possible jump on the other deep closers.
Then bluegrass is perplexing me as the track was tiring that day. Been training good. Definitely an A horse will be used
10) Grande: Received a better figure than the Wood winner. Lightly raced with great breeding.Johnny V not one to save ground in his middle age. Horse will be used underneath in tri and super
11) Flying Mohawk. Toss unless it’s wet.
12) East Avenue: A very perplexing horse to me could get the dream trip outside the inside speed if he can rate like he did in his last work.
If the track is playing towards speed derby day could be dangerous on the front end. Paired his two year top and all signs are he could move forward.
Still deciding as Fairmont said could hold on for a piece.
13) Publisher: Still a maiden with a new top last out in the Ark Derby with the silly speed duel. Could get a piece in the tri or super. Gets Irad.
14) Tiztastic: Other Asmussen Maybe he didn’t care for Oaklawn. Went to Louisiana picked up Rosario and came home a winner with a new top. Horse has never taken a step backwards including wins on the turf. Was put worked by his stable mate the other morning. Use underneath.
15) Toss
16)Coal Battle: Won 4 in a row until the Ark Derby which he still hung on for third. Showed a regression #s wise after. Definitely a hard trying colt who will be in the second flight. 30-1 on a horse who has only been out of the money on the turf. Will use underneath in tri and super.
17) Sandman: Won the Ark derby that set up perfect for him even though he came home kinda slow. Is 0-3 at the downs. Don’t see J.Ortiz saving much ground with him and May run the furthest of all the entries. Will make his run and wide much like Sierra Leon. Due to trip and being a Tapit don’t see him which are quirky I don’t see him winning but definitely an Exacta use horse.
18) Sovereignty: The second Go Dolphin who I believe ran his best race here while breaking his maiden. Solid TG pattern and I feel more tactical speed than Sandman. Definitely a win candidate
19) Chunk of Gold: Horse that got hurt the most by the draw I feel. Likes to be mid pack. Has run well on the rail but can’t see him getting there and saving ground. Has never been out of the exacta and training good. He was high on my list originally as an underneath bomber. PP may have canceled that.
20) Owen Almighty: Can’t see him being much of a factor after the mile. Trainer didn’t want to run him here case of Derby fever. Toss.

Apologies for any grammatical errors.
Good luck to all.
John

[Molesap]

Some interesting stuff there. I just went and looked at Michael McCarthy ‘s record at CD since 2020. Overall, he is 141-22-21-14 for a 22% ROI. Now, if you want to reduce that data down, how is he at CD in dirt routes? There he is 71-9-12-9 for a -13% ROI. Based on that, I personally am not going to worry too much about the ship for him.

[T Severini]

Citizen B. works tomorrow. Want to see his lone CD \"drill\".

Journalism worked and looked nice, however his only practice on the track will get time recorded as mediocre. Mike Welsch is not concerned and says it was a maintenance move but it doesn\'t illustrate pure track affinity. Can\'t read it as track love. I believe it was 1:01:4. Raises my eyebrows some, even factoring that many believe coming from behind will be best.

Rodriquez worked and looked good. Welsch said :59:3, video says 1:00 (Some of the Workout Tape indicated time not jiving with Welsch\'s stopwatch.) He came home in 1:12 per Welsh.

Sovereignty looked good in 1:01:8  (Looks like they time in tenths.)

The big work on the day to my eye was East Avenue and there is also a bit of a controversy. Welsch was adamant he went in :59 Flat and out in 1:12, outside of a workmate \"JoeJoe Go\" per the Video. However the Video lists his time as :59:4 (Meaning 2/5ths second) You may say, \"Whats the diff?... It\'s a work\" ... Yeah, but when the jester said Lemon Drop Kid would not possibly win the Belmont, he drowned in his own disbelief.  

 https://brunowiththeworks.s3.amazonaws.com/CD/2025-04/EastAvenue-CD-20250427_hq.mp4

[Molesap]

Thanks every who has made this an interesting thread - here are some of my thoughts. It is way too longand I probbaly tossed all of the winners, but I enjoy doing this type of research. So here are my thoughts a little less than a week out. It is not perfect and has some errors I am sure. Plus, I would not be surprised to see my thoughts change in the intervening time.

1-Citizen Bull-20 - liked his draw the least, but so will the rest of the world. Not sure if I heard anyone mention his name except when they were spitting it up out of their mouth- he is not getting any love it seems. Yes, his SA Derby was awful, but it may lead people to the conclusion that he was never that good in the first place and was able to take advantage of soft trips. The short answer is that maybe he is, but… His sheet looks eerily similar to Mandaloun, who regressed for no apparent reason in his last prep - then ran well enough to earn the victory via DQ of Medina Spirit while running a 1 in the Derby. I expected a move forward last time off a paired 3YO top but instead saw regression. The good news is that Baffert seems to be better when not coming in off a new top, but he also seems to do his best work with three preps, not two. Perhaps to make up for that, Baffert put three stiff works into him in 11 days - I do not ever remember him doing that and shipped him kind of late. That makes me wonder about betamethasone positives, suspensions, lessons learned, and revenge may be best served cold in a shade over 2 minutes. Going to use if his price holds as there are too many questions I cannot answer.
2-Neoequos-30 - outside of losing his rider in debut, has never been out of the money. Although his connections contend, he does not need the lead, he will likely chase the early pace but does not seem fast enough overall. He paired his last two and that pattern has a better chance of improving historically, but he needs to move forward a bunch. Oddly a couple of weeks ago, my offshore book had him posted at 300/1 - I grabbed a very small piece of that instead of buying a coffee. Despite that bet, I am not going to use.
3-Final Gambit-30 - has been DEAD last early in three of his four starts. His first call position has been 11th, 11th, and 12th - all over surfaces not named dirt. Ideally, he is going to fall back and likely hit the rail before the first turn after most everyone else has cleared. Yes, he is going to have to steer through most of the field late to get a piece. Now, he has to answer questions about surface, kickback, class and whether he is fast enough. The lore of CD is that the surface is kind to horses with turfy action. Strangely, I think he will be bet fairly hard, especially underneath off his sub 12 second final 1/8 at TP. That may make him an underlay in those pools. After Rich Strike, it’s hard to dismiss any of these types of horses but he has developed a bunch and is still too slow. If there is a pace meltdown, I may regret this decision, but I likely will not use.
4-Rodriguez-12 - this is the one that confuses me the most. He was apparently considered to be on Baffert’s B team seemingly capitulating to his higher ranked stabemates until he got a solo show of his own and blitzed a somewhat weak Wood field with soft fractions on the front end over perhaps over a strip that favored his style. My Mitole ran Sunday against Cornucopian and finished a neck back after getting beat by 44 lengths in the Wood. It is tough to draw any conclusions about that race as it was a three horse field as they finished second and third. I am not sure if it is an indictment of Cornucopian or how much it flatters Rodriquez - maybe a bit of both. His last race puts him in the area code, but he has had some development since his 2YO season and it does not seem like the conditions favor him here. I HATE passing on a Baffert horse, especially on his return to CD, but I say, no Beuno to senor Rodriguez.
5-American Promise-30 - I am sure most anyone reading this will agree that the two most volatile trainers out there are Lukas and McPeek. Both are fully capable of having their charges fall off the face of the earth in a single race, only to run huge the next out. They are not the most consistent trainers, but on the right day, look out. The problem is that most of us will pull our hair out trying to guess the right day. He ran huge in the Virgina Derby. Hard to evaluate as it was a one turn 9f effort aided by a track that was as fast as a highway (they set numerous track and stakes records that weekend). There is always some educated guess work that goes into making the numbers I am sure, the question is not so much was this an accurate figure as it likely is the best estimate of that effort, but the real question is how likely is it going to be repeated? At this point it l represents a ton of development for me and I make those chances very small. Plus, I do not think the pace dynamics work in his favor either. I am betting he does not come close to repeating that last race. I will not use.
6-Admire Daytona-30 - imports always a tough call and those “enhanced” foreign PP for the Japanese horses does not add much to solving the puzzle. They only time he showed speed was in the UAE Derby and they did not expect him to be on the front end. This one seems like a cut below Luxor Café and both seem a cut below Forever Young. His numbers seem middling and I am not inclined to use here.
7-Luxor Café-15 - this one might be the more serious of the imports. The Japanese horses have not come in this late before and he had not travelled to the desert first, so maybe he will be a fresher animal. Based on everything I have seen, he is not quite on par with Forever Young, but that one has turned out to be a good one, so those are big expectations to live up to. The quality Luxor Café beat in his last is suspect, but it was visually impressive. His last 1/8 in his most recent effort was rumored to be sub 12:00. Another positive note is that a couple of horses he beat previously ran well in Dubai. I find it interesting that he has been favored in every race he has run and he has always been less than 2/1 - four times he was odds on. Looking at the Equibase improved PPs. He has made up lengths in the stretch in every race except his debut. He looks like a stalker and could get first run on the closers. His one number gives him a legit shot if he improves, but that may be asking a bit much with the ship. I also suspect he will get some wagering dollars thrown at him. I likely will not use, even as a saver unless something comes down later in the week with more information to help sway me towards the cover side as it would be nice to see him put in a stiff work over the track. But his numbers on other services like Timeform US I see are in agreement with these to some extent - they just not good enough without improvement.
8-Journalism-3 - regressed in the SA Derby in a race he did not have to win. Seems like the long stretch at CD will help him some as his acceleration has been most pronounced on the straight away. His numbers match up well against the entire field and he seems like he has the right running style where he should be able to track the leaders and then deal his opponents that punishing late kick. On paper, he is one of the fastest closers. If he can stay relatively close, and gets a head start on the deep closers who are not any faster, he will be tough to run down late. There are not too many negatives for this one, except for the price. He is bred for this trip as well as any in the race and has been working smartly over the CD strip. While his last figure was technically an “Off”, there are only four other horses that figures faster than that one in the field. Given that he did not have to win that last race as this was the ultimate goal, I expect him to improve off that last effort. If he does, he will be very difficult to beat. He is my top choice at this point in time - by far.
9-Burnham Square-12 - he is coming in off a new top after pairing his last two, this may be a bit too much in terms of development and perhaps he fired one race too early. The number was good though and repeat of that puts him seriously in the mix. I’ve always thought that it is ill advised to assume a young horse is going to go backwards when he has never done that before. I think he is going to be in that middle pack and he can close. His last number fits with these but that was a move forward and not sure if he can move forward again, let alone repeat off a 25 day break. This is the type of horse that I often toss and then it comes back to bite me in the butt. At double digit odds I am going to use to some extent up and down as I don’t want him to beat me.
10-Grande-20. - I have always been a sucker for lightly raced horses. He took a significant jump last time off of paired tops getting a trip aided number that measures up very well against this field. The thing is he really did not make up much ground on the winner late and I was not impressed with Rodriguez in the first place. I know many people use a standard of less than 13 seconds for the final eighth of a mile as a gauge of a Kentucky Derby horse who may be able to finish out the race competitively, but looking back at the wood, eight of the ten horses finished in less than 13 seconds and half of them went in less than 12.5 seconds. If the entire field is doing that, I am not impressed. I have not looked at Pletcher too closely recently in the Derby, but I seem to remember that he was generally better off on short rest rather than four weeks or longer going into this race. Given Grande is by Curlin, I would not be surprised to see him blossom as the year goes by, but I am not inclined to use this one as I do not think he will be able to repeat that number. Plus, it has been a long time since the Wood had any significance in this race as I believe that out of 40+ starters from the Wood since 2003 where it produced the Kentucky Derby exacta, only one horse managed to make it into the money (Tacitus). He also has a couple of other negative stats working against him as he has just three lifetime starts and did not race as a 2YO. Yes, there have been a couple of winners this decade that broke that mold, but those types of horses have been few and far between. Not using.
11-Flying Mohawk-30 - he is reportedly working well over the CD strip but has never run in the afternoon on the dirt. He passed a few horses late in the J.R. Steaks but still lost lengths to winner. He was a full 0.6 seconds slower in the stretch than Final Gambit and lost to him by over three lengths and I am not suing that one. He is too slow relatively to these, but then again, so was Rich Strike. Lightning does strike more than one time in the same place, heck it hits the Empire State Building an average of 25 times a year, but will it “Rich Strike” in this year’s Derby? I am not betting on it.
12-East Avenue-20 - when evaluating horses in the Derby, try to imagine what is their path to success and see if they line up favorably with other horses that won or ran well in the Derby. I really could not find a similar sheet, but there is a world where East Avenue grabs the early lead and keeps going. No, it is not the most likely scenario but it is not an unreasonable assumption for this given set of data. I did a fairly thorough pace analysis and came to the conclusion that while there are many possible outcomes, the most likely scenario was East Avenue running about a 23.1 and 46.7 while on the lead. That is almost exactly what Medina Spirit ran in the Kentucky Derby. Given that he paired his 3YO top in his last, he could move forward here. There is a better chance the pace is contentious and the Derby pace is always hard to predict, but I will use him very sparingly and maybe grab a small piece underneath as I think that he is one of the pace setters most likely to hang on for a piece.
13-Publisher-20 - he is still a maiden but has run fairly well in multiple preps. He is coming in off of a new top and like many of the closers in the Arkansas Derby got the perfect setup. One of the things that has bothered me about all those preps in Arkansas is that the come home times have been relatively slow and generally there are some of the faster ones in the Kentucky Derby field. He has run early at CD in the past but his best races have come at OP. Sometimes those don\'t transfer well to other tracks. He has been behind a number of these previously and a few multiple times. Like a number of the horses that clothes I could see people using him on the bottom all the exotics but I\'m not going to touch him as I think his come home times have been too slow for OP. In fact, I am likely dismissing all of the entrance that took an Arkansas path this year.
14-Tiztastic-20 - he made a living from minor placements in a number of preps before breaking through and winning the Louisiana Derby. He came home fairly well late. He is yet another horse that is slow early and picks it up late. Based on his pattern, a forward move was expected after a pair, so the question is what happens today. He gets bonus points for winning almost at this distance but I suspect he will be relegated to minor awards at best. Probably not using much, if at all.
15-Render Judgment-30 - this one was a bit of a surprise entry to most and for good reason. He is another one of those horses that has a decent pattern of having paired his last two, but they are slow compared to the rest of the field. After breaking his maiden in his second start he has steadily improved. One of the problems I\'ve seen so far is that there\'s evidence that at least with this caliber of competition, he is too slow early to compete with the front runners and to slow late to compete with the light runners so I\'m not sure where that puts him in the field but certainly does not put him on any of my tickets.
16-Coal Battle-30 - great human interest story but there are many others who are faster than him in this field. He certainly fits right in the middle and sometimes shows speed and sometimes comes from off the pace so from that standpoint he has some versatility period he also has danced pretty much all of the dances since his debut having made 8 lifetime starts. While he\'s only had three preps this year he\'s had every one of those races within a 50 day window. This may be taking its toll on him as he regressed some last out - is he over the top? This one has earned over $1,000,000 which is five times higher than the trainer\'s next highest earning horse. I don\'t think he suited to this distance and it seems like he\'s a little off his game. I am not going to use him and none of his races were very fast.
17-Sandman-6 - got the perfect setup in his last race and made good on the fast pace closing up to win I have a couple of problems though with that race. First, I have not been impressed with the quality of horses coming out of Arkansas. That\'s could be a misguided judgment though for a variety of reasons as the Arkansas contingent handled the Baffert invaders with aplomb. Once Tiztastic left the state, all he did was win the Arkansas Derby. Madaket Road did better in the in the state than he did in Florida though, so the verdict is not yet out. Second, Sandman earned a good number for the last race, but it was a huge improvement over his next highest number figure and I really don\'t see him circling back to that number for a while. None of his previous numbers are good enough to win this. one for a while. If the pace comes out more contentious than I thought I could be closing late. If anyone pays attention to Jon White’s Derby Strike System, he is the only horse besides Journalism to have the optimal 0 strikes. He has a key third place finish in the Street Sense as a 2YO at CD - that race produced three Kentucky Derby starters in Sovereignty and Tiztastic as well. Plus, his overall record at CD is weak, so there is a question on how well he likes the track. Finally, he is goofy by all get out as Tapits sometimes are. He has loads of talent but can never seem to run straight. In his last win, he was all over the stretch and looking around. He will not have the luxury to be able to do that against 19 other foes. For class awards, I would vote him as the most likely horse to get taken down. You have to take a stand somewhere and I am likely not going to use him as I expect the 150,000 or so crowd members to make it difficult on him.
18-Sovereignty-5 - I was a bit surprised he was installed as the second favorite this low, but I do think he\'s likely the second best horse in the race. I would much rather have this one than Sandman even to cost me a tick or two in terms of price though. As we get further and further outside it does start too make the job of each one of these a little more difficult but in the past few years we\'ve had a number of winners from post this far out, so I\'m not going to worry about it too much and hopefully I get my fair compensation for having to start closer to the outer rail than the inner rail. I thought he looked great running down River Thames in the Fountain of Youth and unlike the Wood where it seemed everybody was closing late, he was the only one on the engine. I thought he was one of the bigger losers with the post position draw because there\'s not a lot of speed inside of him and he may have to drop back further than he\'s use to or show a bit more early speed to get better position as I suspect 5 out of the seven horses to his immediate inside want to run a similar race that would fit him. He has junior back, a key win over this track, paired quick figures with reasonable development, and great acceleration. He is the second most likely winner in my opinion. I will use him as my secondary selection.
19-Chunk of Gold-30 - could have paid for this one with a check out of my checking account - $2500 is a bargain price for a Kentucky Derby starter. He has rolled nothing but snake eyes since winning his maiden as he has finished second three more times. The trainer was a bit disappointed with the fact that he was as close to the pace as he was last time and they likely will drop him farther back and try to make one late run. While he\'s on the slow side he has paired up his tops and will likely move forward here with a good trip. That may be a bit more difficult from this outermost post. He has only had four lifetime starts - that has not been a recipe for success. Since 1937, horses starting in the Kentucky Derby with 4 lifetime starts are 51-1-4-7. Not the recipe for success I would be hoping for. Still, he has run well enough for me to sprinkle lightly in the lower exotics as he will likely be a forgotten horse and offer some value.
20-Owen Almighty-30 - these on again, off again decisions often don\'t result in the best outcomes for the horse I cannot blame the connections as I would be here if I owned him. From a just raw percentage standpoint you have a one in 20 chance of basically horse racing immortality. You need to take those shots when they come up and you just have to pray the horse comes out of it OK. That being said, he is the worst bread horse for this distance in the field. The average winning distance of his sire as 6.6 and his damn sire is even less at 6.5. As far as I\'m concerned, he is already outrun his pedigree, but I expect that to stop here. Drawing the 20 hole does not help but many of the horses to his immediate left are going to be slower than him out of the gate and while they may not have to gun him for the lead early, they will have to use some of his natural speed to gain positions so he doesn\'t go too wide in the first turn. I don\'t expect him to finish this race with any type of enthusiasm and in my mind, the most likely to pull-up. I am not using.
AE-Baeza-12 - this one might be the most polarizing horse in the field. If he makes it into the body of the race, he will end up with the worst post but again horses have overcome that draw in the past. In some ways, he was less than a length behind journalism and will be probably three times the odds on a developing horse. On the other hand, it seems like it might be too much too soon. I\'m not going to think about him too hard until he draws in and from a selfish standpoint, I hope he doesn\'t as then I don\'t have to worry about him. Should he be in the field? Absolutely based on his strong performance in the Santa Anita Derby. I suspect he\'ll be some sort of use if he draws in but will not make the top shelf.

[johnnym]

Serious work from Citizen Bull this morning

[Silver Charm]

Echoing Johnny M Baffert has been cranking the you know what out of him. With the inside Draw and Major early speed he should have position going down the back stretch I project inside rating. And all he needs to do is sit there.  Hold his spot and get thru with some punch left. And he is 20-1. Last years 2 YO Champ can rise to the occasion once again

[T Severini]

Citizen in :58:20 I think. He looked good, may be the work of the day. Will check later. Out in 1:12.

Seems to portend any thought of rating from the 1 hole is now history. Battle Joined. He\'s going. Of note, same last work The Vet employed pre Santa Anita Derby. (:58:2) In that race Westwood had him headed at a quarter. (Hot pace on a \"slowish\" surface.)

In Citizen\'s Past Performances he\'s been gifted the pace role in short fields against the Silver Vet\'s other entries, including the B.C. Juvenile, there on this home track on the day he was first scheduled to encounter East Avenue.  The strip that day was glib and Citizen got away with softish fractions when East lost all chance at the break.

The Santa Anita Derby was clearly the hottest pace Citizen has ever faced. If East has trouble again, you never know. Rodriquez certainly isn\'t going to ding dong with the stablemate. It\'s going to make a front end horse\'s attempt to win vastly more interesting.

Baeza looked good but worked slow

and Coal Battle looked good

Good Cheer merely galloped but looked marvelous.

The Japanese horses walked the saddling circle. They walked around it and walked around it and walked around it.  They looked very calm and serene walking and gazing. It was horse therapy.

There\'s been a revision in the Churchill Downs entries for \"Bobby the Needle\". His first entry of the meet is tomorrow, Tuesday the 29th, 7th race 3YO Allowance NW1X...March of Time, 8/5 Morning line favorite Irad Ortiz up.

His only other Pre Derby Day entry is Tenma in the Oaks.

Pretty light on the entries until he sends out 9 on Derby Day. Why the scrutiny?... Will The Needle take the risk necessary to secure history?

[BitPlayer]

I am a little concerned about whether Burnham Square can save ground.  In an interview after the Blue Grass, Brian Hernandez said something about Burnham Square not running well until he got him out in the clear,  There was also his odd run in the Fountain of Youth where he dropped back when between horses making the turn for home, then rebroke when he got to the outside.

[RICH]

dosage 9.0

long ago habit hard to break