If Neoequos Sneaks into the Derby

[nighthart]

I know Neoequos\' numbers are a little light when compared to some of the others, but his pattern shows the potential for a move forward and his pace charts indicates he might grab a fairly easy early lead.

If someone drops out before the draw and he gets in and gets a nice inside post inside of the other early speeds, who knows? Maybe he runs away and wins or at least hits the board at a price.

[ajkreider]

I could see him getting a piece.  But he couldn\'t hold his spot in either the FOY or FD, and we\'re going longer now.

[T Severini]

Forgive editing a post for a new topic. But before the new Topic does anyone think that Sovereignty equaled his Fountain of Youth 1.3 in the Florida Derby?  If you do you\'re gonna be enamored with the Florida Derby.

VIRGINIA DERBY ANALYSIS...

First off you can\'t begin a rundown of that March 15th card without noting the inordinate number of Maiden and Low Level Allowance races on that day. There wasn\'t a lot going on, which complicates matters. Which is not to say there weren\'t fast Maidens out there.

From this perspective the entire Virginia Derby Card boils down to one race... The Virginia Derby. Certainly the Derby Lovers here noted that American Promise set two track records on the day.  Promise set one at 9 furlongs and he set one at 8 furlongs also. The judgement includes what he did to Getaway Car. (Promise beat him up and took his lunch money.) For the Virginia Derby American Promise gets a higher Tony mark than Sovereignty and Tappan Street for their Florida Derby.  What\'s a Tony Mark worth?... Squat!

By the way, on that hot surface after laying down some fractions...
American Promise finishes in :37:82

Neoequos is a hard tryer. In the middle of the prep race analysis now. In fact, will start with his last race, the Florida Derby. Certainly, Neoequos has got big second circuit potential if placed judiciously.

Now the above stated, Neoequos did all the heavy lifting in the Florida Derby. He kept Madaket Road honest, went out and caught him. The Florida Derby colts ran about the same fractions as the Florida Oaks fillies. White Abarrio ran his two turns substantially faster. Granted 4.5 hours earlier. However, the more I review the Florida Derby the less I like it, but for Neoequos and his heavy lifting.

Neoequos will be facing some Derby speed if he gets in. Expect him to improve, but dont see a Derby race where he gets it his own way. Don\'t see that at all.

The Florida Derby was a shit race. The first two finishers found a soft spot there with the pace battle. Don\'t think Sovereignty was fully cranked and don\'t believe there was much else in the race other than the top four. (Nothing else mattered.)
 
Tappan Street finishes in :37:12
Sovereignty   finishes in :36:97  (Thats Tony Math and he says meh ... check it if you want, just remember Tony flunked math.)

The Turf Course on Florida Derby Day was like Buster Poindexter (hot hot hot) a course record set and some very fast times. White Abarrio\'s race was quite good, the other two turn dirt races were meh. By the 14 race everything likely changed, but Cox has never won a Derby. To call him a Derby winner is more alternate source.

Thats the Florida Derby prep rundown... Virginia Derby next.

[Roman]

Hoping Built goes. Got his bounce out of the way,  and might keep Baeza out,  who looked good last time out.

[jbelfior]

I have Built at 56-1 in Pool 5. That was my thinking in mid-March. My late April thought is I don\'t think the Derby distance does him any favors.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Fairmount1]

Built is OUT

Pat Day Mile

[Fairmount1]

As for Neoequos winning the Derby, his trainer is 1 for 53 the last 5 years in graded stakes events in Kentucky.  The race is full of early speed and sets up for a horse to come from off the pace.  I can\'t see it.

[jbelfior]

Makes more sense. He\'s not the only one who shouldn\'t be going 1 1/4.

Maybe Baeza gets in .....and becomes the biggest underlay in the history of the Derby.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Roman]

I have him also in that pool. Pat Day Mile for him.

[Molesap]

Likely hoping to use this race as a prep for the Preakness, Cornucopian goes at Aqu Sunday in race 7. The race is at a mile and has a number of other horses that did not fare all that well in their latest Kentucky Derby prep including Sand Devil, Garamond, My Mitole and returnee Keewaydin.

[Silver Charm]

Paul Braverman is a part Owner. They are live. They are sending

He also has one in the Oaks