This Derbiy Field is LOADED with Early Speed

[Silver Charm]

Rodriguez (Baffert knows no other way)  
Owen Almighty
East Avenue
Nyqeueos (if he draws in)
American Promise (just worked 45)
Thats 25% of the field who need the Lead or Stalking, Pressing wide

Doesn\'t mean we see 44 and 1:08 but it\'s gonna be a scramble to tie Clubhouse turn. And when they hit the Track Kitchen as D Wayne used to say (Charismatic) hit the Button Chris (late Chris Antley).

Sovereignty worked strongly yesterday. Sub 1:01 is not a chest pounder but 1:13 stretching it out is. Tappan Street was easing up in 1:14 and 1:28. And a deeper track at PM.

Will East Avenue but used as Rabbit? It\'s probably Baffert and Lukas running 1-2 turning for home. Thwy have what 11 Derby Wins between the two of them. All they need is 440 more yards and it\'s 12.  Who gets the Mystic Dan Trip?

Happy Easter Everyone!!

[TreadHead]

Side Note: I got breakfast at the Keeneland track kitchen (open to public) last weekend and it was every bit as good as anything you can get in a restaurant at less than half the price.  Highly recommend if you\'ve never been, and it\'s also a fun walk thru the backstretch to get back to the gate.

6.50 for a giant plate of scrambled eggs, sausage or bacon, biscuits and gravy (perfectly done), and home fries.

[Silver Charm]

Well since you brought it up there are always a few ham and eggers in the Derby. Probably 10 of them with no shot. Out of the other 10 four will hit the Super.

Field Size is HUGE. The fewer and fewer races means facing adversity has to be dealt with instead of a 5 or 6 horse field prep where it was maybe avoided. I mean someone can come in like a Mage and fire a career effort only to be never heard from again. Get some value for the Risks you’re taking. Thw Derby can be \"illogical\" as Dr Spock used to say.....

[johnnym]

My gut tells me one of them just may hold on for at least a piece.

I can see a similar race to last years derby, SAVING ground wins the race.

Happy Easter to all.

[Roman]

All the winners sans Baffert in the last 10 years have not been heard from again. If there is not a stand out in the race, the trip a horse receives becomes much of a factor than pace.

Ever since they went away from earnings to points to determine the derby field,  the sprinter / miler types have not gotten into the race.

I don\'t think they even give points to any race under a mile anymore.  I preferred the earnings to get into the derby,  but understand why CDI changed it.  They can control the points a race is awarded, but not the purse.

So when a race like the Delta Downs Jackpot for 2 year olds,  has a million dollar purse,  and the winner pretty much secures a spot in the derby, CDI does not like it,  so points it is.

The earnings system brought together the best 3 year olds of the crop.  Now they bring in set of horses that have competed in chosen races.

Who would you rather see in the race, horses who have won some nice races up to a mile , or a horse like Madaket Road who has basically gotten into the derby by getting minor placing in prep races. Even though it seems he is going in the Pat Day Mile.

What about making the points only for first and second place, in any stakes race run, giving the most points to Grade 1 races and the least amount to listed stakes races?

[T Severini]

Very interesting Derby. F.Y.I... Tony has the Tfigs, first time since the 90\'s. Most any horse in the Derby is going to have a positive pattern. On TFigs, (Not factoring speed attrition), only see two clear tosses for the Trifecta. One upon being too slow, the other upon the Trainer\'s own disclaimer. Many are sitting on pairs or coming off a forward move on a pair. Very contentious for placing. The Tfigs are employed for this purpose... odds-based ability recompense.

Tony thinks it\'s clear which horse he intends to key. (FFS Stop with the third person Tony!)  Ok, but the key horse is an odds-based play as well. A trip based speed 3 can win, but you have to factor the number of horses firing speed based 3\'s. There are only a couple horses that have run fast enough to win multiple times. Journalism and Sovereignty. (Won\'t pick bones on the latter\'s last fig.) With many of the others you have to determine if the career top is bona-fide suggesting repeatability.

To this eye Journalism is a legitimate favorite. Haven\'t seen Journalism\'s last work yet. It was postponed due to the weather Saturday. To this point he has NOT worked on the surface and I want to see that before making further determinations. Workout pending, I don\'t think I\'m going to let Journalism beat me out of the exotics and will protect top and bottom with a light play. East Avenue has \"matched\" his 2YO top. (Won\'t pick bones with the last either.) but East needs to get one more work in as well I believe.

One of the horses is floating over the track. Floating... gently floating and if his god damn jockey doesn\'t fuck this up it will be historic.

On a related note, don\'t think I\'ve ever won the Kentucky Oaks. I\'m not sure I\'ve ever bet it because Friday for me has been a track evaluation day and I haven\'t been off work for it.  Now it\'s a bucket list item and will take a crack at it. I see my target. I don\'t like Brad Cox. The bullseye will be on that favorites back. To be continued...  

Agree, it\'s ludicrous to favor races individually so a two or three career race horse gets in by finishing second in one major graded event at the end of the Prep schedule. Total B.S.

[Roman]

Tenma in the Oaks T?

[T Severini]

Not sure about the Oaks yet. Good Cheer looks \"odds on\". Looking at it right now. Going to review how Baffert has faired this meet before making up mind. But Tenma figures at first look. Also want to factor front end with Quietside as a barometer. Simply Joking has caught my eye.

When a good trainer talks its good to pay attention. Owen drew outside after Lynch made his comments. Owen broke on top in the Bluegrass and got out hustled for the lead and then tried to rate. He carried the confrontation to East and it was too much. Despite finishing 6th he did not cave. He\'s gonna have to go some to not get pushed wide and behind. Good little horse but daunting task in this field to change style and become a second flight stalker.

If feels like Krazy Kaplan, but I hear you upon pace not always developing. Silver Vet will have a lot to say about that and likely Mike Smith.