Bloodbath. Pletcher at Gulfsteam and Brad "Baby Face" Cox

[Silver Charm]

Pretty much took a beating yesterday at the races and with the Hurricanes going down. Gave 80% back of what I won Friday which was an unexpected great day. Nothing worked yesterday Pretty Ana won but I didn\'t bet her. Passed on the Golden Rod and put $10 in the Jockey Club. More on that later.

Figured the Seabiscuit went thru Mandella, D\'Amato and Glatt. But Glatt, after a 14 month layoff had run a 4 point top then a 2 point down to 4. Compare that to Brown who had run no better 7 or a 6. And was like 7/5. But I shifted away from Glatt thinking others looked as good and he might go backward. I bet big om Carsons Run and got hammered.

So why was I passing races at CD? I bet McPeeks runner in the 5th pretty good. Figured I knew something....which I didn\'t. But after I witnessed Brad Cox have a 2YO run !:20:77 and the Track Record is 1:20:50. I kinda shut it down. THIS IS A JOKE RACING!!!! This guy will have a 50% win percentage at Fairgrounds. When this goes on people dont bet more, they bet less. You think I\'m that F-ING STUPID?

Gulfstream Winter Meet cranks up. Pletcher has always been a force. But I suspect now even more. No nemesis Chad Brown to deal with in dirt maidens like maybe at Saratoga or NY in the Fall. Cox has his own underworld operation going on at FG and Oaklawn. Pletcher has seen his Win Percentage drop from 24%-25% to 18%. He has good horses. He has I\'m sure an Army of $400,000-$500,000 of horses for people like Repole that need to hit the track and win. Think more late starting Mindframes, Speak Easy and on and on. I\'m not sure who his #1 Derby horse is and when was the last time he didnt have any? I\'m going to enjoy the good weather and the Meet. Hope I see some of the crew down here

[billk5300s]

Don’t forget Saffie Joseph.  Today is 12/5 and he’s killing me.  It’s at the point where you need to pass the race if you don’t like his horse.  With about 3 mins to post Ragtap Girl is 3/5 and looks very common and not worth the favoritism.   I’m not following my advice and going with Shiloh in the 10th.

[Silver Charm]

Things are beginning to pick here in the Tropics. Decent Day of Racing at GP with a Christmas Feast of Gambling opportunities next weekend at GP and FG and the College football Playoffs

There are two \"inquiring minds want to know\" maiden races tomorrow and Mr Todd Pletcher is in both of them. Dude can train a horse. All anyone needed to have done was watch his work last Saturday on Cigar Mile Day where TWO comebackers ran GIANT in Stakes. Tizzy and Locked.

In the 7th Mr Pletcher teams with Irad on a firster who breezed twice from the gate at PBD on Nov 29th and Dec 6th. And then again with Irad in the 9th on another firster who also breezed twice from the gate on Nov 29th and Dec 6th. Wait a minute two gate works on the same day at the same distance. You thinkin what I\'m thinkin? Both drew outside. Figure to get that Classic Pletcher at GP lay 2nd and stalk galloping trip and are by win early Sires.

One twist is Brad \"Bugsy\" Cox is launching a Turf War with the 1 in the 9th. His Win Percentage this year is 27%. I can only image the last 90 days. Risk Factor with Casse is NOT going off at 15-1. Also coming in off TWO Gate Works and by a win early sire. Several others in here with good Trainers and every reason to POP.

In the Tropical Park Derby its a last chance for 3YO\'s and Shug teams with Irad for West Point on Cugino which means he will be hammered at the windows. Except that string of 8\'s means he isnt any faster than like half the field. And two of them are much faster (Weaver off of sprints) and Echo Lane should he draw is a little faster. He is also in the 13 hole and the 5 wins were on Lasix. He isnt getting Lasix tomorrow. Cugino has two siblings who were solid on grass. Battle of Normandy who went from an 8 as 3YO to a 3 as a 4YO. Veronica Greene not to be confused with Mo Greene....lets not ruffle Bugsy, was also pretty good. It feels like now or never time for Cugino particularly with the last breeze. But at odds on? Lynch to his inside will be twice the price, is drilling bullets, has proven he can go with Cugino and maybe that freshening help him grow up. Sire Index who I think Lynch trained, is slooooow! But most are babies. Watch the Tote......

[Molesap]

This weekend looks better than the previous ones as I have been disappointed with offerings so far. Last weekend, their \"Championship Meet\" featured 31 thoroughbred races and 1 Arabaian stakes race that featured just a handful of dirt races, about 10 turf races and the rest of the card (15 out of 31 races) were synthetic. And almost half of those featured claiming levels less than $20,000. The Championship has not featured too many \"Champions\" yet as far as I can tell. This weekend does look much more promising.

Also a reminder for those that use the TG Byk PP\'s - they have the Springboard Mile at Remington Park tonight (Race 12 Friday at RP) and then the Tropical Park Oaks (Race 8 at GP on Saturday).

[Silver Charm]

Yes the Byk #\'s are helpful. Saffie JOseph is the fastest of the bunch. But bounced hard last time ran a 7. However is the loan speed so is it a here we go again.

Somebody pounded that Jack Sisterson runner early. The price is square now

For the record I bet Pletcher last race but it was small. When the female broadcaster said there was NOT a clean lead change in the last work I became cautious. Non lead changes cause me to run.

Post Race-no I did not have it. That was a good price and ride by Irad. His runners price benefited by the late hammer on Saffie. Fast race

[Silver Charm]

Some small fields at Fairgrounds which means prices are probably not going to be generous.

Track Phantom never ran real fast last meet as young 3YO but he won some races and made a little money. Had a decent layoff, returned getting FTL. Got a good number and get Lasix again. Son of Quality Road figures to improve but at a Grade 1 or 2 level he absolutely needs to. Mad Hatter has Saudi Crown who ran 14-0-35. Reportedly had some training issues before BC and ran like it. That 0 was generous  and they came that day in 26:3. Nothing in that race came back to do anything.

Golden Gamble won easy last time out and got a good number. But only shows one slow breeze in 4 weeks. Mad Hatter has been pushing the training for this and for a runner who goes wide might catch a break with a small field that has very little speed. Look we are talking about a guy who had a 2YO run TEN LENGTHS faster than what Track Phantom just ran. Anything goes here

Tumbarumba in the Harlans Holiday looks strong on numbers in this field but can you bet confidently on a horse who has run 2nd 4 times in last 5 races? And may be at distance a tad further than he likes? I can\'t. The only one who has run 2nd more than Tumbarumba is Bobby Dibona. 6 in 13 starters. Steal Sunshine is 2nd fastest. Likes GP but is 0-5 at the distance. Saffie lures Irad so anything goes. Even though Tuscan Sky is slower than the others. Remember TP is 26% at GP and 26% with JV. Both in over 3,500 starters. Gets a couple of lbs is training lights out for this and can be couragious on the rail and in a fight. 5-2 or 3-1 is worth the risk against salty bunch

Major Dude is not going to be that 5-1 ML. Those last 3 good races off the Layoff were with Lasix. Not happening tomorrow. But he is training up a storm and pulls weight. Win for the Money is consistent and is fastest. Is 2 ofr 2 on this turf course with a DQ. Training like he is ready. Grand Sonata hasnt run that fast but has gotten rich doing it. Spots weight but can navigate an inside trip and if he jumped up this 5YO would not shock

The Janus is interesting and provides value. Arzak has been a little erratic this year. And if he wins at short price and you had him good for you. There is decent amount of speed in here and its all on the outside. Brad \"Mad Hatter\" Cox has two in here and is 37% 1st after the Trainer change. And 37% Blinkers Off. Figure that one out. Anyone who saw Knicks Go and Caravel running World Records after the barn change knows anything goes here. There is a Sleeper in here who will be a good price. Ran a nice number last out. Returned from an extended layoff a New Horse. He was gelded. He is on all my tickets.

I close out a Teaser with Penn State minus 2.5. Let the action begin

[Silver Charm]

The odds swings or how people see the PP\'s and wager is becoming half the battle. Fan Duel puts lines out there to Bet Games once the game has started. Is horse racing actually doing this for a Select few?  I\'m just kidding but not really.  

Tuscan Sky goes off at like 4/5? Get real.The bet was Tumbarumba to Place. Kidding...maybe!! Golden Gamble with only one breeze in 4 weeks that was in like 1:05 was 3/5 and TVG announcers bring up \"another Thorpedo Anna\". Major Dude paid what $6.60? He was never going to be 5-1.

Roman\'s horse Coppola was 7-1 on the load and 7/2 half way around the turn. The Sleeper I mentioned was the 1. He was 12-1 ML and was down to 5-1 on the Load. I made a small win jet anyway but also boxed an exacta. Won\'t say what because it would be a redboard but how did I notice the Roman\'s odds shift. Just saying


Saudi Crown was 1-9 then 1-5 while Track Phantom was 9-1 then 5-1. Crown wins and pays $4.20 and Phantom was 5/2.  

Thanks to Kevin Jennings and SMU that was easy money while multi tasking with horses. It was a good day. Looked at Santa Anita PP\'s last evening and that Card looks tough. Merry Christmas everyone

[Gary Irish]

I get the idea you are trying these nicknames on for size to see if one sticks. In the manner of throwing spaghetti against the wall, lol.

I like Bugsy, but as Elliott Gould (Harry Greenberg) remarked, not to his face.

Twenty dwarves took turns doing handstands on the carpet.

Merry Christmas everyone.

[TGJB]

Gary, lay off the mushrooms.

[Silver Charm]

Thanks for the Merry Christmas wishes. Actually, I think they all apply, but if I had to pick a favorite it would be \"Mad Hatter\" because he once Teamed with Louis “Lepke” Buchalter to run Murder Inc. And if the goal is to obliterate everyone else and kill the game, including the Players, well job well done so far.

But I also want to be clear I have no actual evidence or proof of wrongdoing. As Hyman Roth said, \"I am a retired investor and a pensioner\"....And so that was the end of that racing officials said.

Tomorrow at Santa Anita there are 3 Grades One\'s and 3 Grades Two\'s. That is about as good as it gets these days. Machine Gun ships in with one in the Malibu who only has two career starts but went 1:08:4 and 1:15:2 and got good competitive numbers. He is 32% with Pratt and running at a clip of 32% Tops the last 90 days. keep in mind the Track record is 1:19:3 I believe held Spectacular Bid. Don\'t laugh. Bentornato figures to bounce so it gets pretty wide open after that. This race will be a pass and you know the reason why.

I try and learn from my mistakes and when I previously analyzed and posted about the Seabiscuit on November 30th I mentioned Glatt with Mi Hermano Ramon along with D\'Amato and Mandella as the race going through them. When it came time to pull the trigger I passed on Glatts horse figuring he could not squeeze his 3rd consecutive Top out of him 3rd off the layoff off the 14 month setback. Sure enough he did and he needed it. The Lesson \"If you get 10-1 to find out its worth the risk\". Johannes should trounce this field. Pass

Now the Mathis Mile is where things get interesting. King of Gosford is 6/5 which seems a tad short but he looks really solid. 1st, 2nd (King of Gosford) and 4th in the Hollywood Derby ran in a line on the rail and 1st jump tipped out and got the win and 2nd jump tipped out and got 2nd and the next rode the rail and was 4th. Fourth place beaten a length was Stay Hot. Stay Hot looks like he is cycling back to an improved figure which he will need to beat King. They both might better suited at this distance. Three of Kings 4 wins this year were down the hill. But he has stretched out nicely and reunites with Pratt. Peter Eurton tabs JJ Hernandez for Stay Hot who is a 32% Jock for him. There is hardly any speed in this race. Pratt figures to have a garden spot trip. But I cant recommend 6 or 7 to 5. Being hard headed take the better price. You dont want to be betting favorites all day here now do you....

[Fairmount1]

Silver,

You make mention of the fact that a certain race is a pass and you know the reason why.  Most races today are not worth betting often due to field size or lack of depth within the field if it is of significant field size.  

For different reasons, one race that is not a race I would bet today is the La Brea.  Baffert has four entrants.  Their record while in Baffert\'s care is a combined 13-11-2-0 with the 2 losses being to other Baffert fillies.  Baffert defenders say he gets the best horses.  A glimpse into that idea and it being not quite true is that Hope Road was 3-0-2-0 under John Sadler\'s care and now she has won 4 races by a combined 16 lengths under Bob\'s care.      

Now, this alone does not make the race not worth betting but for me it is a pass.  I\'m not interested in trying to figure out which other other Bob or which other other other Chad is going to win on these big days.  I made a commitment to avoid super trainer races with multiple horses and I\'ve been sticking to it.  These big days are no longer getting my horizontal dollars usually.  

At Fair Grounds, Elliot Walden might hold some info that would be helpful.  It is a firster filled 2yo event.  Race 8 is a MSW $58k event with all 11 horses being treated with Lasix.  Will Walden trains the 1 who was bred by WinStar but is owned by Cypress Creek Equine.  Asmussen trains the 8, a homebred for Cypress Creek Equine.  And Silver\'s good pal Brad trains the 10, a firster owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club Inc and Siena Farms.  This one has been firing bullets at WinStar and then at Payson.  Most recently a work at FG for Brad but was this one with Todd down in Florida?  Or someone else who would be at Payson b/c I don\'t think Brad has a string there?  Is the horse here b/c of Lasix?  I think this one goes favored despite the ml suggesting otherwise.  This race is also a pass for me but I will watch keenly to see how the wagering goes and how the race unfolds.  I won\'t be surprised if and when Silver\'s \"Bugsy\" wins this one.

Race 9 at FG is an interesting one and if you want to see how Lasix on or off matters in different ways for different horses, take a look at this field.  I will be wagering here.  But I\'ll leave it at that and let you do your own handicapping on an ok race to bet.  

The game is very, very different these days and as stated, most races are not worth pushing money into the pools.  

Last, on Xmas eve, Tampa handled over $6 million.  The prior week their weekdays handled around $3 million.  THe brilliant minds of horse racing let the NFL and NBA make all that holiday money.  I mean why would they possibly want to have huge handle on days when guys would definitely want to push their money into the pools.  Racing keeps failing despite those of us that wish it would thrive.  

Tis the Season!

[prist]

Re: Malibu Stakes

I don\'t see any value coming from the top two off the ML. I landed on STRONGHOLD. He has a competitive top, the pattern looks strong and he should be double the price of the two favorites. I hope to get at least 5/1.

Re: Pincay Stakes

Either the ML is way off, or I\'m way off. KATONAH looks like a $4 horse to me. I settled on 7/5 as a fair price.

LAMMAS could be interesting. He\'s doing his best racing as a 7yo. I think he\'s worth around 3/1 coming off the bounce.

Enjoy the racing today, fellas.

Thanks for the data, Jerry.

[Silver Charm]

Prist I looked at your Katonah this morning on the replay and Detorri had to have some worn out arms after that BC Mile. He had to ride him hard the whole way but he did finish with some interest and has solid numbers compared to the rest of the field so he is play for me.

Fairmont I avoid twice as many races as I bet. Maybe three times. Supertrainers. Small fields. Cheap horses. If they want my wagering dollars give me a product I can Bet. Or I wont

Machine Gun is a scratch in the Malibu but the problem is the bounce horse who was the 1 and he was gonna take money he is also scratched. Imagination was NEVER going to be 12-1 and now he wont be even close now. His line is improving. Raging Torrent probably throw out that BC Sprint non effort. He has beaten some really good horses including The Chosen Vron. Training well and oddly given a gate work so they may gun.

Machine Gun just won by 10 at FG in a race taken off the turf at 3/5. TOTALLY washed out. ABSOLUTELY ZERO chance I would bet this race.  

Lepke \"Louis\" Buchalter got sent to Sing Sing and put in the Chair. In racing these guys get sent to Union Avenue and put in the Hall of Fame.......

[Fairmount1]

The \"other\" O\'Neill . . .  

A one-time, MdnClm20k winner for Purple Rein and O\'Neill.

[prist]

Brutal. I have no clue.