Breeders Cup Classic

[jimbo66]

Not sure how many out there have reviewed the sheets yet, but in looking at the Breeders Cup Classic, just wondering how any thorograph user can bet against Ghostzapper.  If you put any validity into the numbers, he looks faster than the rest by a margin.  Pleasantly Perfect either doesn\'t like Delmar or has the \"Post-Dubai\" flu and looks like a great bet against in the exotics.  

I guess the Frankel not performing in the Breeders Cup is the angle to bet against Ghostzapper or perhaps the 1 1/4 distance since he is a full to City Zip and both distance races with the huge figures were not true distance races (Monmouth carries speed and the track was sloppy, while the Woodward is 1 turn).

Just looking at the race, I see Roses in May out there setting the pace, pressed by Funny Cide, with Ghostzapper sitting a comfortable third.  Approaching the far turn Castellano says \"go\" and he sweeps right by those two and I don\'t see anybody coming to get him.  The race has more closers/plodders than true speed horsss and stalkers, so not only is Ghostzapper the fastest horse by a lot, but also figures to get a soft trip, barring stupidity from Castellano.

Anybody else look at the race yet?

[HP]

I have not looked at the sheets but I can say right now that I will not bet a dime on this horse.  With the Eyes of Texas upon him, I have faith that Frankel\'s BC form featuring short priced and underperforming horses will continue.  HP

Can we agree that if he loses it could be because of the distance, Pleasantly Perfect running a peak, or him simply not holding that form. It doesn\'t have to be because of suspicions about Frankel.

[HP]

I agree.  But...

The guy has a substantial track record here, and it\'s VERY bad.  You could argue that it\'s all a coincidence, or he doesn\'t have the advantage of spotting his horses or whatever, but I DO have some faith in the numbers and the results don\'t make sense.  

The other thing that doesn\'t make sense is that if you track his horses, if you had to make a single comment about Frankel, you would have to say \"his horses HOLD THEIR FORM.\"  They run their number EVERY time out.  There isn\'t much of a \"form cycle.\"  How is it possible that, with few exceptions, they manage to poop out at the BC, right on schedule?  

Don\'t most guys crank up for these races?  Don\'t they schedule things to be ready on the big day?  What could account for getting it wrong so often if it\'s not the quality of the horses going in (and it\'s NOT the quality of the horses going in)?  

I don\'t believe that much in coincidence.  I backed his horses last year, the ones that I thought had a chance, and this was in California, where he is no stranger.  With my money off his back, he\'ll probably win every race...

HP

[Tony]

I will absolutely bet against GZ. I might be wrong but how many times in the BC does a horse look like a monster and not win. Strange things happen at the BC which is a day to swing for the fences. I am looking for a price that can run a negative 2 or 3 which is not that many in here.

[cfm]

I should probably know this, but has there ever been a winner of the classic that has not been a mile and a quarter?

HP,

I agree.

It just seems to me that I haven\'t been particularly fond of many of his BC horses that took a lot of money over the years. I thought many were overrated/vulnerable for one reason or another.

I would have to go through all the results over the years to be certain. I know last year I disliked both his sprinters and Peace Rules on the turf. This year, I can see why Ghostzapper would be either the favorite or second choice, but it wouldn\'t shock me at all if he came up empty \"at 10F\" against a full field of Grade I horses. If I get a chance I\'m going to look back and look at all the BC races I handicapped carefully (still have most of the old DRFs). Maybe I\'m just wrong about this.

[HP]

I could be wrong too!  

GZ will be first or second choice so I don\'t know how bad it can be if I miss the Classic, but I\'m looking for another Cat Thief-type result if those two (w/Pleasantly Perfect) are the choices.  

I\'m employing a different strategy this year.  I\'ve had a few good scores but overall I think I should have done better.  The year Da Hoss nipped Hawksley Hill almost killed me.  So this year I\'m going to wait till after the draw (and if I can stand it, until the night before) and treat it like just another day and go with what I come up with at first blush.  

This year I may even PASS a race!  Crazy, I know.  Good luck in your calculations.  

HP

[Upper Nile]

GZ is a half bro. to City Zip not a full bro.  City Zips\' sire is Carson City. GZ\'s sire is Awsome Again.  I\'m not concerned about the 10F.  GZ ran a huge # last year and has only gotten faster w/o regressing and I don\'t expect him to regress this weekend despite the trainers record on BC day.  Midas Eyes is another one who ran a huge number last year as a young 3yo and has paired that top and has moved forward in his last.  Both are well rested and both when all the wagering is done may offer more value than expected especially Midas Eyes.

[jbelfior]

Cfm---


I believe there are 2. ; Black Tie Affair and Skywalker.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

HP,

I generally seperate the contenders from the wannabees hoping to find a vulnerable favorite or two. In the races where I think 1 or more contenders is getting overbet, I often bet more than 1 horse to win (and sometimes box them in an exacta). I think the races are generally so deep and competitive it\'s hard to have a strong opinion. I don\'t mind rooting for one of 2-3 horses when they are all 10-1, 20-1 and above. You can be almost certain I won\'t have any cheap chalk on any of my tickets. If I can\'t get past the chalk, I\'ll just watch the race.

[Michael D.]

hp,
if you were on the velazquez bandwagon back then, you would have had the DH-HH exacta...... good luck in the BC.

[HP]

I was surrounded by people who made plenty.  My stubborn-ness has worked against me many times.  It\'s the kind of thing you have to get over fairly often in this game.  At the time I knew Velazquez was Leo O\'Brien\'s son in law and that was about it.  I think I\'m paying closer attention now.  Good luck to you too.  HP