Race 9 American turf

[johnnym]

Every horse is within 2 points on the turf.
None have won on the CD turf.

All have decent patterns some patterns maybe be blurred due to dirt efforts.
Fastest turf # is a 8

Lots of Cali speed shipping in, add the 12 shipping in from Gulfstream who has twice beaten the 11 who may have the best pattern but has a case of the wides.

Set up for a closer?

Do you keep it simple with Appleby?

Like to hear some opinions on this one.

Johnny

[P-Dub]

#4 Formidable Man. I\'ll toss the San Vicente, he looks pretty good running a very nice number last out. It was a pretty big move forward, but he\'s had 5 weeks. Can be forwardly placed and get a jump on the closers. An absolute use for me at 15/1ML

#5 Appleby horse with fast Euro numbers. In a big field I\'ll see if I can beat him, a must use on any horizontal ticket as the favorite

#6 Neat ran well over a yielding turf 2 back, backed up last time. For me an underlay at that 6/1 ML

#7 Stay Hot paired both 3YO numbers, at some point he\'ll move forward. Right now he\'s a touch slower, but if he does move forward he can spice up the verticals. Fresu a really solid jock and he\'s 10/1 ML.

#8 Lord Bullington has run 2 solid numbers his last 2, and has some solid late fractions if the front ones back up. Another at a nice ML number 15/1

#11 Cugino 10/1ML broke thru that fast debut number last out. Gets blinkers as I\'m guessing Shug wants him to focus and finish a bit better. 3 place finishes and a win in 4 starts.

#13 Can Group 15/1ML take out the Stakes dirt route and he looks pretty decent. Solid turf number albeit ground loaded last out. Seems like a minor awards horse here

#14 Agate Road 5/1ML ran 2 fast dirt races, but his turf numbers are meh. An absolute underlay for me here

14 horse field, I mentioned 8 with 2 I consider underlays.

That leaves 6 horses as contenders

#4 Formidable Man 15/1ML
#5 Legend Of Time 7/2ML
#7 Stay Hot 10/1ML
#8 Lord Bullington 15/1ML
#11 Cugino 10/1ML
#13 Can Group 15/1ML

The tote will clear things up on race day. As of now, if I had to pick a horse or 2..........

#4 Formidable Man has run against graded company twice with dismal results. That should help the price. Would like to have Saez take back a bit and not engage the front runners. If he can sit in the pocket and stays clear, he gets first run and can hold them off unless the Euro does what Euros do when they come here for a turf race. Which is explode like a friggin rocket down the stretch

[P-Dub]

Since Johnny got me started, I\'ll do a few more.

Assuming I can get up by 9am..........

#6 Best Actor 5/2ML an obvious contender

#7 Kapuna 6/1ML ran a very fast number last out, and he\'s run that number BTB last year right here at CD.

#8 Strava 8/1ML has a nice running style for this, competitive numbers and has run his fastest races right here at CD.

#10 Five Star General 8/1ML very competitive numbers, not crazy about the quick turn around and he usually is on the pace in this speed laden field.

There is plenty of speed signed up here. Kapuna has shown speed in several races, but sat 5 lengths back and closed to win going away. Anything close to the ML and he\'s the play for me

[P-Dub]

Just a wide open race.

#4 Motorious 7/2ML is fast and an obvious contender, but he\'s been off since running in the BC. Can he run his fast one off a layoff?

#7 Our Shot 10/1ML is one of several in here that can run fast enough to contend. That last one was very nice

#8 Mischief Magic 4/1ML faced off against the #7 last race, his first here from Europe, and ran a slightly worse number due to ground. How do you ignore a Euro on the turf?

#10 Big Invasion 5/1ML is another running competitive numbers. Contender

#12 Arrest Me Red 10/1 has run fast enough on turf and synth to be a factor here

#14 Cogburn 8/1ML scored for me at Saratoga paying a nice $17 as I watched it with Frank D in the backyard. Another good enough to win

Another wide open race with no less than 6 solid contenders for me and not a lot of speed. Tough race I\'ll go with #7 Our Shot for the upset and I also like #12 Arrest Me Red. We\'ll see what the tote looks like

[P-Dub]

#1 Three Witches 8/1 ML ran a fast one in her last, not the first time either.  

#7 Alva Star 5/2ML has pounded out several races fast enough to take this. Usually on the lead, she came from off to win the Madison holding off the closing Vahva. An obvious contender but no bargain

#10 Vahva 3/1ML paired her 3yo top in a fast race, does she turn the tables today??

The 2 favorites look tough in here, with the #1 a possible upsetter if she saves ground and the others go wide.

[RICH]

i am looking strongly at twirling point, i see a move right now, lots of ground loss on those outside posts

[johnnym]

Does Cali speed hold up over what looks like could be a soft turf course?

Looks right up the Euros alley.
Considering he has the lowest #..

[TreadHead]

I dont think anyone would disagree, the CD turf is as aberrant a surface as we have seen the last decade.  I\'ve lost count of the number of shocking results and stakes winning horses who couldn\'t win another race anywhere else after their CD score.

Then we\'ve got the surface replacement issues of the past 2 years, the rail used to get really bad after/during rain, but now we are to believe this problem has been solved I think?  2/3 of an inch of rain forecast for Friday aftn into Sat early morning, so it will definitely be moist.

Im inclined to lean less on horses that ran their best figures on tarmac style turf in places like SA and GP, but it all feels like a crap shoot on this surface.

Overlooked angle in younger turf horses is dam turf ability and siblings.  Motion\'s 2 has a very nice turf dam who ran 4s at 3yr old and a \"never went backward\" pattern.  This one is on my tickets.  Twirling Point does also fit this profile a bit, tho both the dam and sibling ran their best at 4yrold.

[shanahan]

I have Cugino and Appleby a full pt clear of the rest.  I\'d box  in Set # 10 IF Jose Ortiz was more than a  3% winner at CD.  Wonder how that is possible?

[RICH]

yeah, cugino ran 2 points better than the winner did last race on that wide trip, same thing could happen here, he needs to run a 7 to beat that trip and win or come close the way i see it

[johnnym]

Good to hear from you
That Jose Ortiz stat took me by surprise as well.

Good Luck

[johnnym]

Agree
I don’t see him getting inside this race either

Even though his last race he kinda blew the first turn

[P-Dub]

Rich the first thing I noticed was the nice pattern with Twirling Point.

Absolutely can move forward here,

[Molesap]

Since 2019, Jose Oritz is 182-27-20-28 at CD. If you break up into dirt and turf, he is 129-21-13-22 on the main and 56-6-7-6 on the grass. Not stellar, but much better than the 3% at CD in the last 12 months that TG indicates. Still, he has not been very good at CD recently.

[Molesap]

Agree with most of your analysis P-Dub but how about Coppola? His last was not very good, but he has bounced back from subpar efforts before. It looks like he may have reacted from that effort in March, which was a pretty good number for him - hopefully the two months since is enough for Coppola to regroup. He drew a good post and is the inside speed - that might play well in a field without a whole lot of zip. He is 2/2 on this course and his best race came over this course a year ago. He should be in front turning for home. If the rain softens the turf, it may make it more difficult to close. In terms of raw numbers, he has some that are competitive, but he is a bit slower on average than the best here. I suspect you will get double digit odds and he could make some noise if he can find his best form - being on the lead may help that.