Derby

[jerry]

This is going to be a sprint to the first turn I don’t see Fierceness winning. There are other .23 quarter milers inside of him. If he isn’t wide he ran the first quarter too fast. I think he’s a miler like his dad. He reminds of Quality Road. I also think he’s not going to be persevered with to the end. He also reminds me of Essential Quality.

Just watched the Bay Shore replay. I don’t know how big Fierceness is but I think he can be intimidated. He got bumped around at the start and got rank. He ran at Hades and Hades put him away. There was no fight once Hades regained the lead.

I think this race is going to play out more like the Louisiana Derby. .23 contested first quarter. I don’t like any of them in that group.

Catching Freedom finishes. Sierra Leone looked good in the Bluegrass but Chad’s horses seem to top out in their final prep. Have any of his horses ever moved forward in the Derby? Same with Cox. Hoping this time is different.

I can’t get a good handle on Forever Young. I think one of the best points in the seminar was that the trainer ships in to win. I’m betting he’s around at the finish.

Endlessly is improving and comes in from a good trainer and a synthetic to dirt angle which has yielded some of the larger jump ups.

Honor Marie and Stronghold round out my top 6.

[Tavasco]

Jerry at this point I\'ve landed on the same horses you note. Then I read from the DRF site the Trainer of T O Password said he expects him to run mid-pack and finish strong. BTW, Forever Young is expected to wear a hood.

After his work two back when he went sub :47 while his countrymate crawled early while finishing fast. I began thinking T O was the one who might go :45 so I could toss him.

The problem is Daisuke Takayanagi, the trainer says he won\'t wear blinkers and the Jockey and horse now seem to be on the same page. I consider his sire King Kamehameha a strong stamina influence. I now imagine both Japanese colts could end up in the super, which is more than I had planned to invest.

I\'ll be watching Alysheba Stakes closely on Friday and if T O Saint Denis runs big I think I\'m headed for tilt.

[jerry]

I think JB might have done this review in the past. Over the last 19 Derbies, not counting 2020 because of the timing of the race, Pletcher, Brown and Cox have the following record for Tops, Pairs, Offs, X’s. (2 of those Pletcher tops are technically pairs. They’re small forward moves.) Regardless, it’s the 33 X’s that stands out most.

Pletcher    3 | 12 | 2 | 33
Brown       0 |  2 | 2 |  3
Cox         1 |  3 | 1 |  5

Pletcher has an abysmal record in this race and he’s come into it with some fast horses who were considered contenders.

The record for horses not trained by Baffert coming into the race off of a negative number isn’t promising either.

The clear value play here is to go with history and play Fierceness to X.

[Roman]

Forever Young has a beautiful pattern.  A couple of nice pairs of fast races. Don\'t know what he beat in Dubai, but a pair of 1\'s is solid and a point or two improvement makes him scary. A tad of an underlay at 7-1, but worth a win bet for sure.

Couple things about his Saudi race, he looked hopelessly beaten and when I watch the replay , I still can\'t believe he got up at the wire. Chased down a nice sprinter / miler type in Book em Danno, after breaking poorly , not changing leads , and it was reported that he did not ship well right on top of the race.

As for the hood and dislike of any kick back from the racing surface, look at his last race as a two year old. They apparently run on a very fine sandy  track in Japan and it looks like he is running in a cloud of dust for the entire race .

The 0 for 19 starters from Dubai to the derby Stat is blown out of proportion I think. The horse has the numbers, 10 furlongs is well within his scope, has done everything that has been asked of him . Being wide does not bother me as he can run all day, and hopefully doesn\'t get stopped in traffic as he is a freight train that needs some time to get going. The long run into the turn should set him up nice. Japan\'s best shot yet. Let\'s see if he is good enough.

On another note, he would love Belmont Park and the 12 furlongs, but not this year. If there was a Triple Crown attempt and success,  would there be an asterisk attached for the change in distance for b3ing held at Saratoga?

[statuette]

I just read this “ Besides 1+1â,,2 miles, the Belmont has been run at the following distances: a mile and five furlongs in 1867â€"1873; a mile and a quarter in 1890â€"1892, 1895, and 1904â€"1905; a mile and a furlong in 1893â€"1894 and again in 2020; and a mile and three furlongs from 1896 to 1903 and 1906â€"1925.”

[jerry]

Obviously trying to beat the heavy favorite so rationale bias disclosed up front.

FIERCENESS might have the second fastest prep race ever. I only know of MENDELSSOHN’s being faster (-4.2). MENDELSSOHN was eased and finished last in his Derby (although he was coming in off of a 9pt. jump up).

Pletcher’s Derby record is riddled with fast horses with nice patterns who flopped. Here’s a rundown of all of his horses who came into the derby off of a top. The first number is their prior top. The second number is their last prep top. The third number is their Derby number followed by the amount of the new top in the last prep race and the result of the new top. T, P, O, X.

Effort distribution for Pletcher horses coming in off new tops
2010-2023 (x 2020)

TAPIT TRICE             4 | 1 | 5 3pt. Top | O
KINGSBARN              Â 5 | 3 | 13 2pt. Top | X
MO DONEGAL          Â Â 4.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 1.5pt. Top | P
KNOWN AGENDA          3.2 | 1.2 | 6.3 2pt. Top | X
SAINTHOOD        Â Â Â Â Â 8.2 | 6.3 | 7.2 2pt. Top | O
BOURBONIC       Â Â Â Â Â 10.2 | 4 | 8.3 6pt. Top | X
DYNAMIC ONE     Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5 | 2 | 14.2 3pt. Top | X
SPINOFF                 4 | 2.1 | 7.2 2pt. Top | X
AUDIBLE               1.1 | -1 | 0 2pt. Top | P
VINO ROSSO            7.2 | -1 | 1.3 4pt. Top | O
ALWAYS DREAMING         9 | -0.2 | -1.2 9pt. Top | T
DESTIN.                 7 | -0.3 | 2 7pt. Top | O
MATERIALITY  Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.3 | -2 | 2 2pt. Top | X
DANZA                 7.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 5pt. Top | P
WE MISS ARTIE        11.1 | 3.2 | 5.1 8pt. Top | O
CHARMING KITTEN       6.3 | 2.1 | 6.1 4pt. Top | X
DEVIL MAY CARE        4.2 | 0.2 | 6 4pt. Top | X
DISCREETLY MINE     Â Â 4.3 | 3.2 | 11 1pt. Top | X

Top        1
Pair       3
Off        5
X          9

FIERCENESS will probably have to X to lose but it would not be unprecedented for a Pletcher horse to do that.

[yesthatwouldbeme]

Tavasco - Interested in where you landed with TO Password after watching his stablemate almost pull off a big upset yesterday?

[PonyBologna]

I\'m on Mystik Dan heavily in the Derby. I like the inside draw and I don\'t think the Southwest figure was because of the slop. I have futures on Track Phantom and Epic Ride but not really confident in those tickets. I can\'t discount the most talented horse in the field so I singled Fierceness on top of my exotics but don\'t have him anywhere underneath. He either wins by daylight or doesn\'t hit the board.

 Good luck to all!

[P-Dub]

#2 Sierra Leone is solid but the price a little short for me 9/2

#3 Mystic Dan ran a fast one in the mud 2 back, backed up a little last time. Contender at 17/1

#4 Catching Freedom is a little slower, but a great pattern to move forward. Every race has been better than the last, 8/1 currently seems light for a horse that needs to step up again today

#6 Just Steel ran a fast one at this track last November. Paired that his 2nd this year and ran a fast one last out. The son of Justify can get a big piece of this at 22/1 as long as Asmussen doesn\'t park him wide throughout.

#8 Just A Touch banged out 3 solid races this year, feels like more of an underneath horse than the winner 11/1....but didn\'t Mage do that last year??

#11 Forever Young ran 2 really good ones this year, can he be the first Japanese horse to win the Derby??  They struggled for years in the BC until they started winning some. At 6/1 not in love with the price at all but certainly a contender

#17 Fierceness the 2YO champion has the 2 fastest figures in this race comfortably.  If he fires his best shot at 3/1 or close to it, they are all running for minor awards.

Final Thoughts
#17 Most likely winner currently 3/1
#6 Best Upset chance if he gets a good trip currently 22-1

#2 and #11 are very solid but I just don\'t see the value

I would key #6 and hope he runs today.  Use him with the others listed in exotics.  Def worth a win bet.........and I\'m sure that some hopeless looking horse will somehow find his way into the Super

[P-Dub]

Picked the wrong horse but did cash a P3

Great weekend and as always, fantastic job JB with the numbers.

[KK4510]

Watching the head on view, Forever Young’s jockey lost his whip when bumped by Sierra Leone also was Tyler Gaffalione sticking his arm into Forever Young’s jockey at the wire? Looks fishy

[Roman]

Biased because I bet Forever Young,  but does anyone else think Sierra Leone should of came down?  Rough weekend for me as I decided to key the 11 on top of 2,3,4,8 and now regretting not boxing on the tri and super.

Same thing Friday with Just FYI.
Congrats to TG, on the success in the Oaks.

Tried a new approach this year and kind of limited the hype and the FUD that goes a around alot this time of year.

[Roman]

No doubt.  Should of came down.

[Tavasco]

To: YesThatwouldbeme

See my PM to You

[TreadHead]

SL should have 100% come down there.  An absolute travesty (that didn\'t impact my tickets)