Fierceness, Derby Decisions

[Fairmount1]

I would think that almost everyone handicapping the Derby in a serious manner would have to decide what they will do with Fierceness, the likely favorite in the Kentucky Derby if he makes it into the gate.  I went back and watched his replays and many have said when he faces adversity, he throws in the towel.  I\'m not sure I agree with that necessarily as in both his losses, he put himself into a position to win after less than ideal issues but after that threw in the towel.  Is it possible that in both of his losses, he wasn\'t ready for the stretch out?  Or wasn\'t ready off the bench for his best effort?  I\'ll leave it to you if so inclined to assess his trips in helping with your decision.

His TG pattern will certainly be one to assess once the field is known and the data is released that week esp after post positions and how it will stack up against others along with the Derby patterns some of you have fine tuned.  

On the trainer front, I did a little bit of research into some of Pletcher\'s stats with Derby horses.  I\'ll share what I found meaningful here.  I\'ll let you decide if it helps you decide USE or TOSS once Derby Day arrives.  
_______________________

Todd Pletcher has won the Florida Derby 8 times including with Fierceness this year.  I went down this path b/c many have stated that his horses run better in Florida than elsewhere.  Here are his prior winners and how they fared in the Kentucky Derby.

Scat Daddy, 1 1/4L winner of Fla Derby. 18th.
Constitution, Neck winner of Fla Derby.  Did Not Start.  Hairline Fracture in April and Off Derby Trail.
Materiality, 1 1/2L winner of Fla Derby.  6th.
Always Dreaming, 5L winner of Fla Derby.  WON.
Audibile, 5 1/2L winner of Fla Derby.  3rd.
Known Agenda, 2 3/4L winner of Fla Derby. 8th.
Forte, 1L winner of Fla Derby.  Scratched Morning of or before Derby.
Fierceness, 13 1/2L winner of Fla Derby.  Kentucky Derby Finish TBD.

5-1-0-1.  Can anyone go back and look at these 5 from a TG standpoint?

Todd\'s overall Derby record has been well covered through the years.  He is/was known as a guy that can get them to the race but couldn\'t win it.  He has won twice in the slop with Super Saver and Always Dreaming.  Based on people saying his horses weren\'t prime contenders to account for his losses, I took a look at his horses that were under 10.00-1 since and including 2001 to see how this looked.  I didn\'t use 2000 when he had horses that were part of the \"field\" that went less than 10-1.  He has only had the favorite one time and Always Dreaming did win that year.  These are his horses that started as individual entries at under 10.00-1, their Derby finish, and how they fared thereafter in racing.  I looked at their post Derby record to see if the idea that he can get them to the Derby is true but that there isn\'t much lemon left to squeeze thereafter.

Balto Star, 8.30-1.  14th.  8 for 29 thereafter with 1 dirt stakes win.
Bandini, 6.80-1.  19th.  2 for 3 as a 4yo but no more starts at age 3.
Scat Daddy, 7.20-1.  18th.  No more starts.
Dunkirk, 5.20-1.  11th.  0 for 1.
Super Saver, 8.00-1.  1st.  0 for 3.
Gemologist, 8.60-1.  16th.  0 for 1.
Revolutionary, 6.40-1.  3rd.  2 for 6 with 1 stakes win, Pim Sp at age 4.
Verrazano, 8.70-1.  14th.  2 for 8 with those 2 stakes wins at Mth as 3yo incl Haskell. Transferred to AOB for Turf tries as part of those 8 post Derby races.
Danza, 8.70-1.  3rd.  No more starts.
Carpe Diem, 7.70-1.  10th.  No more starts.
Always Dreaming, 4.70-1.  1st.  0 for 5.
Audible, 7.00-1.  3rd.  1 for 4.  Win was an ungraded stakes.
Known Agenda, 9.90-1.  8th.  0 for 1.
Tapit Trice, 4.53-1.  7th.  0 for 3.

14-2-0-3 with horses UNDER 10.00-1.  And the post Derby record if you eliminate those first two from his very early days, it is 5 for 32.  A few of those starts were for AOB with Verrazano.  And some of these horses became stallions.  But the strongest contenders for the Derby don\'t show a lot of success post-Derby which makes a case for how hard he has to push them to just get to the Derby. And maybe by that point they are up against it to run the biggest race of their life in a large field at a distance of a mile and a quarter.

Notable Scratches.  Todd has had some strong contenders for the Derby that didn\'t even start in the race.  That included Constitution cited above.  Also, on the list and all three were likely to be favored I think is a fair comment:

Eskendreya, Never started again.
Uncle Mo, 1 for 3 thereafter in 2nd half of his 3yo year.
Forte, 3rd in Bel, 1st in Jim Dandy, 4th in the Travers.

Is this the trainer you want for your Key Horse in the Derby for the favorite?  Will his Derby record affect the Derby odds and the horse will be a higher price than some are thinking now?  Is 5 starts lightly raced enough to have one more monster effort?  I\'ll let you decide those questions although this is only a tiny component as handicapping the actual race with PP\'s is certainly a large part of decisions of what to do with the horse.  

As always, no warranties on this work but it is very, very close if not 1000% accurate (maybe a typo in here).

I\'d say Derby season is upon us!!

[Fairmount1]

Another piece of research that some may find interesting and may or may not helpful in thinking about Fierceness.

A quick rundown of Pletcher starters that were 10-1 to 20-1 odds in the Derby yielded this result.

13-0-0-0.  I did this based on the names of Pletcher horses from memory so I may have missed one but I don\'t think so.  It is close enough though to state there is No Value on him at these odds in the Derby.  

More Than Ready, 4th
Circular Quay, 6th
Any Given Saturday, 8th
Cowtown Cat, 20th
Devil May Care, 10th
Stay Thirsty, 12th
Overanalyze, 11th
Intense Holiday, 12th
Materiality, 6th
Patch, 14th
Mo Donegal, 5th
Charge It, 17th
Kingsbarns, 14th.

Not Good, Not good at all.

[johnnym]

As far as Fierceness goes, in the Champagne Stakes he had a terrible start.
Got behind horses and was done.

In the Holy Bull I don’t see the excuses the majority of the other folks say he had at the start.

From a TG point the -# at 2 was a concern until, I went down the rabbit hole with your request.

Scat Daddy: 2007 Ky Derby won by Street Sense who ran a -2 at 2 years old and then paired it in the Derby.
Scat Daddy pattern was as follows. He ran a 1 at two bounced of that to a 5.
Paired his top in the FOY and the FL Derby. P.P.X Pattern

Materiality: 2015 Derby came in with a solid Pattern and actually the fastest number with a -2 in the FL Derby got a 2 in the KY Derby.
Pattern was a Top Top Off.

Audibile: 2018 Derby came in with a real nice pattern 1 -1 0 Top Top Pair

Known Agenda: 2021 Derby came in with a 11 then a 3 then a 1 bounce in the Derby to a 6..Top Top X

[ajkreider]

Fierceness almost certainly got a new top - thinking somewhere between a neg 2 and neg 3.His pattern won\'t look like any of these.

FWIW, Scat Daddy had a significant equipment change going into the Derby.

I\'m also not sure how good the numbers are from Materiality\'s year.  The track at GP was ungodly slow that winter.  His neg 2 in the FD was 4 seconds slower than what Fierceness just ran.

[johnnym]

Forgot
Always Dreaming: 2017 Derby has a very strange pattern. Had a 5 as a two year old.
Then ran a Pair of 9s to then run a new top in the FD -0.2
Then in the Derby ran a 1.2-
 X- Top Pair

[trackjohn]

When Always Dreaming won the Florida Derby in the post parade he looked absolutely stunning on the track. I was standing outside on the rail outside the Ten Palms before the race...TP was walking to his seat...we made eye contact and I said \"if he runs to his looks he\'ll blow this away\"... After the race he passed me looks at me smiles and I said \"there\'s your Kentucky Derby winner\"...he nodded and says \"if he runs like that he will\"... Then he went down to the winner Smurf circle with a huge smile on his face.

I haven\'t seen fierceness run in person so I can\'t comment on how he looked but Fairmont is 100% correct TP\'s Derby results over the years is poor  his results with double digit odds is horrendous
.lclearly there\'s a lot of analysis to be done before the first Saturday in May

[grinder]

An interesting and informative post regarding TAP\'s historical stats for his Derby starters. I also agree that this race goes through Fierceness, as to whether you toss him or key him. He has clearly shown that on his best day that he can run a TG number that would easily trounce his competition.

However, I believe that his success our failure will be determined in the opening quarter mile of the Derby. If he gets away from the gate cleanly and lands in a forward position with no outside pressure, I believe that he will run his race which should get him the win. But, if he has a troubled start (ie. bumped, steadied and lands in a tight spot early, he has demonstrated that he will get rank and not settle which will take him totally out of his game.

After watching the tape of his defeats, he was away from the gate poorly, had early trouble in both instances before he landed in bad spots and was no factor. I have no doubt that after the Holy Bull, he spent many extra mornings getting gate schooled, which led to a much cleaner break in the Fl Derby.

Additionally, his post position draw will be critical to his establishment of an early forward position , as if draws inside with speed to his outside, he could easily get cooked early or buried behind his rivals.

In the end, it will be a fascinating race to handicap and bet.

Good Luck

[trackjohn]

Agree 100%... I was speaking with a fellow TG gentleman this afternoon...my comment was \'he\'ll either bury this field or he won\'t hit the board..I\'m leaning to him burying the field but
ALOT can happen in the next few weeks (including the pp!!)


John

[Roman]

Fierceness\'s sheet looks similar to Bandini\'s.  Bellamy Road lost off of his huge fig in the Wood. It is obvious that his best chance is if he sets the pace. It would be a great time for another owner to purchase a \"rabbit\" that has enough points to run and ensure a 44 and change for the half, and 1:09 and change for 3/4 for most of the others to have a chance.

[Tavasco]

IMO that is Cox and look no further than the Blue Grass where Chad Brown used a rabbit to set up a win for Sierra Leone.

Step One - what is one\'s objective in the Derby? If you want a SCORE don\'t use Fierceness. Simple

If you want to cash a ticket find a couple of accomplished colts who will finish strong in the last 1/4 mile and Stab at a couple of horizontal bets.

[jbelfior]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> IMO that is Cox and look no further than the Blue
> Grass where Chad Brown used a rabbit to set up a
> win for Sierra Leone.
>
> Step One - what is one\'s objective in the Derby?
> If you want a SCORE don\'t use Fierceness. Simple
>
> If you want to cash a ticket find a couple of
> accomplished colts who will finish strong in the
> last 1/4 mile and Stab at a couple of horizontal
> bets.

I\'m a bit confused here. Why would you toss the most likely winner. There are other ways to go to make a score other than straight win wagering or horizontals.

What about verticals? Let\'s say that one of the accomplished colts you refer to is Just Steel. He\'s likely to go off at 20-1 or better in a 20-horse field. If you played/keyed him first and second in exactas, would you toss Fierceness?  


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Tavasco]

Joe,

Hey, thanks for commenting. I think it boils down to one\'s definition of a \"SCORE.\" It\'s a subjective term. My point is simple - having all the money bet on the favorite returned as profit to the winning ticket holders boosts payoffs.

I agree with you. Tossing Fierceness is not required for a big winner. even with Fierceness on top of a vertical winner, it will probably make for a winning day.

In summary, I was just having a thought when I posted. One that reasoned Fierceness is not a lock to repeat his last race as Fairmount pointed out! So the potential for a very large payoff no?


Oh whose/which version of Hey Joe is/was best?

[johnnym]

I believe the year Always Dreaming won the super paid over 70K

That’s a nice score in my opinion.

We are all in the hunt for the big score
Let’s not overlook what maybe obvious.

Try and get some bombers underneath

There are some live ones I feel.

Enjoy the conversation
GL

[Fairmount1]

With the draw happening tomorrow, I\'ve been really trying to zero in on my decision with Fierceness of whether to KEY or TOSS.  After all, he is the fastest horse in the race.

I saw an interesting stat from @Horseplayernow on X that the last 12 Derby favorites are 12: 6-3-2-1.  So, one has to use Fierceness right?  On the other hand, favorites in the Derby who lost in their 3yo Derby prep season are 1 for 17 since 1993.  The lone winner was Street Sense who lost in a 3-way photo I believe in the Bluegrass.  The other 9 winning favorites were 26 for 26 in their pre-Derby starts.  These stats came from @TravisStone who posts some excellent information at times.  But these somewhat juxtaposing stats don\'t sway me one way or the other for my decision on Fierceness.  I\'m more interested in this horse and his trainer\'s ability to get him to the winner\'s circle.  

I went back and I looked at the PP\'s for Dreaming of Julia as I have been daydreaming about how to really make this decision.  She ran the fastest figure in the history of TG back in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in 2013.  In the Kentucky Oaks, she went off at odds of 3-2 (which at the time and now I think is a bit higher than I expected), she got bumped around at the start, and finished with a solid run albeit too late as the others got the jump on her in what was a heck of a field.  What happened with her has ZERO bearing on what happens with Fierceness.  But again, I was just hunting around with a Todd flop with the fastest horse.  This lead me to search the following as I thought about TAP some more:  How does Todd do after winning a graded stakes and putting them back into a graded stakes?  More specifically, what percentage of the time has he won consecutive graded stakes on DIRT?

It was quite a little task to figure this out as it doesn\'t just pop that feature up in the popular program most use for trainer stats.  Regardless of that, here is what I found over the past 5 years plus*:

Pletcher has 40 horses that totaled 71 starts attempting to win Consecutive Graded Stakes on Dirt.

71 starts-19 wins.  26.7%.  Very solid win percentage.  

However, those 19 wins were won by only 7 of those horses as follows in that scenario:

Forte:  6 starts-4 wins
Life is Good:  6 starts-4 wins
Malathaat:  7 starts-4 wins
Nest:  5 starts-2 wins
Tapit Trice:  2 starts-1 win
Prince Lucky:  1 start-1 win (*Asterisk above.  NOTE: this is beyond 5 years but his PP\'s showed up under broader parameters of the search so I have included him which is favorable to TAP\'s record in this situation).
Coal Front:  4 starts-3 wins

The other 33 horses that won a graded stakes on dirt and attempted to win another graded stakes on dirt in the very next start were 0 (Zero) for 40.  Interestingly, of those 33 horses only 1 of them attempted it more than twice and that was Fearless at 0 for 3 in that situation.

Once Todd figures out a horse is not capable of winning at the graded stakes level twice in a row, he generally didn\'t try it again.  On the other hand, with the really good ones, he would keep firing them and they collected wins.  But the number of those horses is few as listed above.  

So, is Fierceness in the category of Forte, Life is Good, Malathaat, Nest, Coal Front, or even Tapit Trice and Prince Lucky?  Or is he one of the other 33 horses that couldn\'t win consecutive dirt graded stakes over the past 5 plus years?  Well, he is already included in the stat as he has failed once and is 0 for 1 on the list.  

There\'s more to the decision than this but barring a perfect draw outside of all the other speed, I can not play this horse.  Even with a perfect draw, I still can\'t play the favorite for Todd stretching out 2 furlongs in a field of 20 at odds of 5-2/3-1 give or take.  

I think the horse is very, very talented obviously when he gets the perfect setup.  But based on these statistics I cited along with Todd\'s Derby history in the prior post, the added distance, his 2 losses, and the likely favorite\'s role, I can not play this horse.  I also believe the pace will be hot and will be a disadvantage for the colt as the field stands at the moment.  If he wins, I\'ll tip my cap to the horse and Pletcher for an outstanding job.  But my money will be against him and I\'m going to Toss him altogether UNLESS he draws absolutely perfect to my mind (and I\'ve already set out what that needs to be) and then I will likely just watch the race without a wager. But I highly doubt he gets that Perfect draw I would require.    

Hopefully, JB doesn\'t roast me for using wins and not TG figures for this stance or the pace scenario.  But hopefully, it will lead to some discussion on what others are doing with Fierceness.  

As always, no guarantee on these stats as it was quite the task by pencil and paper for a good part of it but they are very, very close if not 100% accurate.  


**Second Asterisk**  Vino Rosso was one of the 33 listed above and his record in the scenario described was 0 for 1.  However, in addition to that one attempt, he did cross the wire first in the JC Gold Cup but was DQ-ed (Code of Honor put up) and then won the BC Classic in the next start.**

[RICH]

tossing, DI to high, fast numbers though