Kentucky Derby becoming a negative key horse race

[Roman]

When was the last time a derby winner won there last race?
Saw they retired Rich Strike today, thought he would never win another race and almost proved me wrong in the Lukas Classic.

Going to sell at Keeneland\'s HORA sale.

Mandaloun won again after being elevated to the win position after Medina Spirit DQ,
but it seems like the derby winner the last couple years have not reproduced there efforts.

[Roman]

https://www.drf.com/news/rich-strike-withdrawn-sale-stay-light-training

Un-retired. Horse racing\'s Tom Brady!

[ghostzapper]

2 names that come to mind are Monarchos and Mine That Bird.

[kencbs]

Both of Pletcher\'s winners-Super Saver and Always Dreaming

[Molesap]

Records of official Kentucky Derby winners post Kentucky Derby since 2000:

Mage 3-0-1-1
Rich Strike 6-0-1-0
Mandaloun 6-3-0-0
Authentic 2-1-1-0
Country House 0-0-0-0
Justify 2-2-0-0
Always Dreaming 5-0-1-1
Nyquist 3-0-0-1
American Pharoah 5-4-1-0
California Chrome 16-9-3-1
Orb 4-0-0-2
I\'ll Have Another 1-1-0-0
Animal Kingdom 7-2-3-0
Super Saver 3-0-0-0
Mine That Bird 9-0-1-2
Big Brown 4-3-0-0
Street Sense 5-2-2-0
Barbaro 1-0-0-0
Giacomo 8-1-0-3
Smarty Jones 2-1-1-0
Funny Cide 31-7-4-8
War Emblem 5-2-0-0
Monarchos 3-0-0-2
Fusaichi Pegasus 3-1-1-0

[johnnym]

Seems as if you point a young horse for a huge effort it sure takes its toll.

[Gary Irish]

The list of Derby winners since 2000 is an eye opener. I agree the demands placed on a young horse to win this race often stress that individual.

But having won the big one, there is a lot of pressure to not tarnish the individual. He reached the pinnacle - the amount to be gained by continuing to race diminishes, at least to some extent.

The horse is a winning Lotto ticket. Who wants to (or can) wait? Off to the stud farm.

[Perfect Drift]

What is really damning about American racing is the glory bestowed upon the winner. It\'s really ruinous to game. Also, even if you turn your head away from the subsequent race record of Derby winners their stud careers are also abysmal. A couple of solid sires, that\'s it. I\'ve posted some info below. The concept of owners like Mike Repole (wannabe commissioner of racing) touting a $10 million purse for the Derby is ludicrous and a conflict of interest. There are far bigger problems than giving more money away to rich owners. Anyway, some stud info:

Mage: TBD
Rich Strike: TBD
Mandaloun: Year 1 $25k, Year 2 $20k
Authentic: Year 1 $75k, current $50k
Country House: always $7500
Justify: Year 1 $150k, Year 5 $100k, now private
Always Dreaming: Year 1 $25k, Year 4 $10k
Nyquist: Year 1 $40k, current $85k - $30k jump for 2024
American Pharoah: Year 1 private, Year 2 $110k, current $50k
California Chrome: Year 1 $40k, sent to Japan, current $26,750
Orb: Year 1 $25k, Year 5 $10k, sent to Uruguay - no fee listed
I\'ll Have Another: immediately sent to Japan for private fee, now in CA $10k
Animal Kingdom: Year 1 $35k, Year 5 $10k, sent to Japan for private fee
Super Saver: Year 1 $65k, Year 3 $35k, sent to Turkey current â,¬12,500
Mine That Bird: GELDING
Big Brown: Year 1 $35k, currently in NY for $5k
Street Sense: Year 1 $40k, been as low as $35k, as high as $75k, currently $60k
Barbaro:
Giacomo: Year 1 $12.5k, Year 9 $3.5k, now in Oregon for $2.5k
Smarty Jones: Year 1 $10k, dropped as low as $4k, currently in PA for $3.5k
Funny Cide: GELDING
War Emblem: dead, sold to Japan after racing, only sired 119 foals
Monarchos: dead, Year 1 $15k, final fee $4k
FuPeg: died this year age 26, Year 1 $125k, within 7 years $7.5k until death

[TGJB]

Wow.

[Fairmount1]

Outstanding Post Perfect Drift!!  The Chosen Vron just returned to win in 2 weeks just moments ago. A little off topic here but throwing this out there.

The Derby is not a problem as it stands now.  If they want to raise the Derby purse I don\'t care one way or the other.  But the Preakness and the Belmont, I think more money would help.  

No one cares, but I want the current timing of the Triple Crown to remain.  It is about the only thing left that keeps the public at large interested in the sport over a 2 or 5 week period depending on how the Preakness goes for the Derby winner.  

So, here\'s what I would do instead of a $10 million Derby purse.  

Make the Triple Crown bonus similar to years ago with this twist.  

A Triple Crown winner earns a $10 million bonus.  

A winner of the Derby-Preakness earns a $2 million bonus on its own.

A winner of the Derby-Belmont earns a $2 million bonus on its own.

A winner of the Preakness-Belmont double earns a $2 million bonus on its own.

If a horse wins all three, they are only eligible for the $10 million bonus.

I didn\'t put much thought into the exact dollar amounts but that is a strategy to keep the best horses firing at the Triple Crown instead of skipping them with excuses about timing, blah blah blah.

[Roman]

Nice Molesap, says something about the sport this century.

[Roman]

Nice work also, is Mike Repole the commissioner? And of what?

Should probably start a new thread, but is Rick Dutrow a blind wager no matter what. Was going to bet the horse he had in the last today at 14/1 , but he was bet down so hard , I thought the last flash would be under 2/1. Kept my money and lost by not playing.

Question for TGJB, does his recent runners seem Like they warrant further surveillance as mentioned in the Using figures to catch cheaters?

His horses have been running lights out, and seem to be improving first start after a claim or barn change.

Not implying anything nefarious is happening, just wondering.

[Michael D.]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------


> No one cares, but I want the current timing of the
> Triple Crown to remain.  It is about the only
> thing left that keeps the public at large
> interested in the sport over a 2 or 5 week period
> depending on how the Preakness goes for the Derby
> winner.  



I think this is correct. If they spread this thing out, the general public loses interest. There is pretty much one thing in horse racing that captures the attention of all types of sports fans, and for some reason horse racing intelligentsia wants to change it. Why not change everything else, and keep this the same?

[PG2023]

Gee, I don\'t know. Maybe based on the data in Molesap\'s post? The Triple Crown ruins the best horses in every crop and it leaves you with a classic like this year with an under-achiever loaded up with drugs staggering home followed by a Japanese horse off a 6 month layoff.

The data is VERY clear that the majority of horses that run in the triple crown over the last 25 years rarely make it through their 4yo season if they make it at all. There is already a shortage of horses. It seems right on brand for this sport to keep an ancient schedule that ruins their best bred athletes. No one I know that isn\'t a horse racing fan, and most casual racing fans as well, ever cares about the preakness and the Belmont only matters if there is a potential triple crown.

[Michael D.]

PG2023 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Gee, I don\'t know. Maybe based on the data in
> Molesap\'s post? The Triple Crown ruins the best
> horses in every crop and it leaves you with a
> classic like this year with an under-achiever
> loaded up with drugs staggering home followed by a
> Japanese horse off a 6 month layoff.
>
> The data is VERY clear that the majority of horses
> that run in the triple crown over the last 25
> years rarely make it through their 4yo season if
> they make it at all. There is already a shortage
> of horses. It seems right on brand for this sport
> to keep an ancient schedule that ruins their best
> bred athletes. No one I know that isn\'t a horse
> racing fan, and most casual racing fans as well,
> ever cares about the preakness and the Belmont
> only matters if there is a potential triple crown.



The Preakness and Belmont get more coverage than the average big stakes race, much more. How often do the others show up on ESPN, or a morning talk show? Hardly ever. And I get asked about the Preakness and Belmont all the time. Never had a casual fan ask me about the Woodward.

What\'s the data on all of the horses that have raced in the triple crown vs the pool as a whole? We saw some ugly stuff this summer that had nothing to do with the triple crown.

Also keep in mind triple crown type horses, especially the winners,  are more likely to have stud value than the average horse, and thus retired earlier.

Anyway, I\'d love to see the data. Always willing to change the view.