Hopeful Stakes and Torrey Pine Stakes

[Fairmount1]

The Hopeful for 3yo colts at Sar today.  

A few facts:

1.  Bob Baffert scratched his $2 million horse Muth not long before the card started today.  

2.  The Hopeful has been set on the calendar at September 4th for a while.  Last Grade 1 of the meet on Labor Day for many, many years and closing weekend probably forever I\'d guess.  

3.  The Hopeful has been set at the 7 furlong distance for a while.  (Since 1994).

4.  This year\'s Hopeful was won by a 54-1 shot for Gary Contessa with a MSW Delaware win.  The horse cost $12,000.  

5.  Bob Baffert stated that \"It was coming back a little quick and I looked at that field and it\'s pretty salty.\"  He is also quoted that he is going to run Muth in the American Pharaoh at 1 1/16 miles.  \"It\'s two turns.  I think it\'s [Hopeful] coming back quick from the Best Pal and I want to re-route him - give him more time.\"  

6.  Bob Baffert shipped the horse all the way to Saratoga knowing the date of the Hopeful in relation to the Best Pal and knowing the distance in advance.

6.  Last year\'s Hopeful winner Forte tested positive in the Hopeful Stakes but the results were not released or made public until it was leaked in early May in a story by the NY Times.

7.  Contessa beat Cox, Pletcher, Pletcher, Baffert, Asmussen, Asmussen, and Lukas for the grade 1 win today.    

Conclusion:  I will let the intelligent minds that read the board put together their own conclusions from here.  

______________________

The Torrey Pines for 3yo at Del Mar on Sept. 2nd.

A few facts:

1.  Bob Baffert scratched his horse Faiza who drew the 9 hole in the one mile dirt race (two turns with a short run into the first turn).  

2.  Bob Baffert essentially stated the 9 post position as the reason for the scratch.  \"Impossible to win from there\" is the quote to Scott Hazelton cited in a bloodhorse article.  

3.  The 10 horse out of post position 8 after scratches won the race.  

Conclusion:  I\'ll let the great minds that read the board make any conclusions if they so choose.  

______________________

In 2021, Baffert scratched Medina Spirit and Private Mission from the Pennsylvania Derby and the Cotillion at Parx.  He cited the post position for Medina Spirit as a reason for the scratch.  \"I don\'t like the way he drew\" he told Tim Wilkin.  

Post positions 6, 7, and 8 in the 8 horse field ran 1, 2, and 3 in that race.  Hot Rod Charlie was in the 2-3 path in front almost all the way around and drifted out to at least the 5-6 path at the TOS and down the Str.  

Baffert is a Hall of Fame trainer that didn\'t know that the outside post was favorable for Medina Spirit?  It would be mind boggling if you actually believe that.  And further that the 2 scratches listed above from this weekend for similarly flimsy and nonsensical reasons are actually why he scratched.  

As for Medina Spirit, he died less than 3 months later (from date of Pa Derby) on December 6th following a workout.  

I\'ve always figured he just had bad luck with that horse.

[Fairmount1]

2023 Saratoga 2yo Stakes Race Results.

2yo Fillies.

1.  Schuylerville Stakes.  Becky\'s Joker, 21.20-1.  Gary Contessa.  6-5 Wine of Tap fourth for Pletcher.

2.  Adirondack Stakes.  Brightwork, 5.10-1.  John Ortiz.  5-2 Here U Come Again 2nd for Brad Cox 5L behind.  Asmussen last at 4.40-1.

3.  Spinaway Stakes.  Brightwork, 3.00-1.  John Ortiz.  0.45-1 to Ways and Means 2nd for Chad Brown.


2yo Colts.

1.  Sanford Stakes.  Yo Yo Candy, 46-1.  Daniel Velazquez.  0.35-1 Gold Sweep 2nd for Asmussen after a terrible break and didn\'t come close to prior speed figures on at least some figs.

2.  Saratoga Special.  Rhyme Schemes.  1.05-1.  Norm Casse.  Lukas, Pletcher, and Asmussen up the track as winner won by 9 plus.  

3.  Hopeful Stakes.  Nutella Fella, 54.50-1.  Gary Contessa.  Cox, Pletcher, Pletcher, Baffert, Asmussen, Lukas, Asmussen all up the track.

_______________________________

What kind of odds could a person get before the meet that:  Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Steve Asmussen, Bill Mott, Wayne Lukas, Brad Cox would win NONE of these races?  

Maybe HISA is doing something.  Maybe NYRA is looking harder at their 2yo graded stakes races.  Maybe I\'m just a conspiracy theorist as people like to say.  But take a long look at these results and tell me you ever would have predicted the big guns wouldn\'t get a single one of these.  

_______________________

Oh you want some historical context.  Gotcha.

I went back to 2015 just to get a feel for this issue.

There have been 47 2yo dirt races in that period for the 2yo series for fillies and colts:  Schulerville, Sanford, Adirondack, Saratoga Special, Spinaway, and the Hopeful. (the Sanford did not run in 2020).  There were 48 winners of these 47 races as there was a dead heat in the 2016 Spinaway.  

Of these 47 races/48 winners:  Pletcher, Asmussen, Chad, Mott, Lukas, and Cox won 23 of those races.  Nearly 50 percent of them.  And every year since 2015, one of those six trainers won at least one of the six 2yo graded stakes for open company (Asmussen won Three of the Five races in 2020).  And since 2020 more specifically, they accounted for winning 11 of the 17 races.  

I guess this year was an abberation.  Oh, and Baffert scratched today because he didn\'t know the date of the race or the distance of the race.

[Roman]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> Oh, and
> Baffert scratched today because he didn\'t know the
> date of the race or the distance of the race.


I would add that he shipped across country for said race with a 2 million dollar purchase, tell me that is not some B.S.

Not a conspiracy theorist, but those are facts. The difficult part in the intelligence gathering world is knowing the set of facts of an event but only knowing the beginning and the end of the story. The in between is what is hard to figure out. It's like having a result chart with no notes. You know who started and how they finished, but no idea how they ran. I want to know how the trainers are "running".

[Fairmount1]

Winning Beyer Figures

1.  Schulyerville.  75.  (2nd place 67)
2.  Adirondack.  89.  (2nd place 78, 3rd place 70)
3.  Spinaway.  84.  (2nd place 83, 3rd place 71)

1.  Sanford, 71.  (2nd place 65)
2.  Saratoga Special, 86.  (2nd place 65)  
3.  Hopeful.  72.  (2nd place 69)
_________________

Summary:  ZERO 90 Beyer figure horses in the stakes.  Go look at today\'s PP\'s and get back to me on that one.

Only 4 2yo\'s ran over 80 Beyers in these races.  Only 11 horses ran 70 or over.  

How are the trainers doing in MSW races?  Oh, ok, guess that\'s the easier competiton.

Asmussen had horses earn 85 and 79\'s at Sar, FTS on Dirt 2yo\'s.  No others over 70.  Gold Sweep just not the same at Sar.  

Pletcher had 10 horses earn figures over 70 on Dirt as 2yo\'s including 96, 95, 88, 83, 80.  But none of those were in these stakes.

Cox had 6 horses earn figures over 70 but only Here U COme Again with a 78 in these stakes.  Had two maidens earn 83, 83 in wins.  2yo\'s on dirt.

Chad had 4 horses earn figures of 92, 90, 76 and 74 in MSW races.  2yo\'s on dirt.  Ways and Means earned an 83 in the Spinaway.  

Where did all these fast horses go?  Why couldn\'t they reproduce these numbers.  Guess they all bounced.  
____________________________________

Either Andy Beyer has some very serious explaining to do about his figure issues being so slow in these stakes or so fast in the maidens?

OR...OR....and more likely

The rules are different for these stakes races and someone has some explaining to do about what\'s different for these races.  yeah, we won\'t get answers but we aren\'t stupid as the powers that be think.  

Oh, And Baffert scratched b/c of timing and distance issues after shipping the horse.  Scratched about as late as possible before the card started. Mission Beach earned a 63 in the Hopeful compared to a 72 on debut.  He sent a horse across the country that he DID run to go out and get a 63.    

Jerry, would love to know if your 2yo numbers in these 6 stakes are similarly low compared to the same horses prior numbers.  And compared to how other horses from these barns are doing in MSW races at the meet.

Back to work tomorrow so others will have to take up the chase.  But it seems pretty interesting and obvious.  Would also love to see if Craig Milkowski has similar to what I\'m seeing with the Beyer figs.

[TGJB]

Very interesting stuff.

[jerry]

The whole meet sucked.

[jerry]

It's still a cold case.

Racing has gotten weird. Linda Rice? Move ups? Winning off of one weeks rest? Tying for the trainers title? 26% win clip? That's not coincidence.

You know that scene in Diner where Kevin Bacon is sitting in the car with Mickey Rourke and he turns to him and says, "Do you ever get that feeling there's something going on that you don't know about?"

I don't know what the duck is going on but I'm putting my pencil down for a little while. My wife asked me if it was a pretty day at Saratoga today and I told her it was almost over. I played a pick 5 and went for a walk on the beach. Came home to Funky Monkey at 54-1. A perfect ending. Only the Sopranos was better.

[jerry]

And Dr. Strangelove

[HP]

Great posts Fairmount. Thanks. HP

[P-Dub]

jerry Wrote:
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> The whole meet sucked.


My first trip to Saratoga and the meet sucked.

Correlation??

[pip4126]

The Saratoga meet finally ends. 12 Fatalities. Total handle down 9%. On track handle down 6.1%. 65 turf races were moved to the main track. Average field size 7.6
So how does NYRA improve? My suggestion is go back to 4 weeks of racing. Install a synthetic track (what\'s the purpose of two turf courses?) and when a race is taken off of the turf reward the connections with an incentive to prevent scratching.
Am I off the wall with these suggestions? I would like to hear other suggestions or solutions.

[richiebee]

jerry Wrote:
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> It's still a cold case.
>
> Racing has gotten weird. Linda Rice? Move ups?
> Winning off of one weeks rest? Tying for the
> trainers title? 26% win clip? That's not
> coincidence.

Ah yes Linda Rice one hit wonder/overnight sensation. Took out her license in
1987, over 2000 winners, has been leading trainer at all three NYRA venues
(including Saratoga 2009).I also think she was leading trainer last four meets
held at NYRA.

I think what you meant to say is that Linda benefitted from the record number
of off the turf races; if even half of those races stayed on grass Chad
likely wins outright.

[toppled]

They\'re not putting a synthetic track in for a 40 day summer meet.  The purpose of 2 turf courses is not to wear out a turf course at a meet with a lot of scheduled turf races.  This was the wettest meet I\'ve seen in the 35 years I\'ve lived in the capital district. Hopefully, it is an aberration and is not the new normal.

[Roman]

Not a fan of the synth. Has it's purposes, but racing at Saratoga isn't one of them.

[jerry]

What was/is most striking about her success lately has been the number of jump ups after horses were switched to her barn. Did you miss that part?