Belmont Sires

[richiebee]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-register/stallions/166534/violence (sorry I seemed to have posted a \"dead\" link).

No secret that Tapit has been the dominant Belmont Stakes sire over the past few
years, having produced four Belmont winners since 2014.

Forte is by Violence. Violence\'s stallion page is linked above. Go to the Equibase
statistical summary on that page and check out Violence\'s average winning distance
numbers. Looking at the bottom of the page, one can compare Violence\'s numbers to
other Hill N Dale stallions such as Curlin, Ghostzapper, Good Magic, Midnight Lute
and Mucho Macho Man. One will notice that the average distance stats, both
starting and winning, seem to range from mid 6 to mid 7; Tapit\'s page not
surprisingly shows an index in the high 7s.

Has Forte already outrun his pedigree? Do you trust a son of Violence to get that
extra 1/8th mile in the Belmont?

Not pretending to be Tesio or Rasmussen, just saying.

I would have attached TG Violence sire stats but am restoring access to TG info in a
piecemeal fashion it seems.

[Tavasco]

Hey Richeebee, regarding your so-called \"dead link\" I think the restored blog includes a technical bug whereas we can\'t add a link to a post. Nicely Nicely may have an opinion about my hunch.

Secondly, I have already rushed to judgment on Violence and the endurance or long-distance capability of his get. Barring a stamina-loaded mare I will toss his offspring from any race longer than 1 + 1/8 miles.

In regard to Forte, the idea that a young colt has already or will soon outrun its breeding typically refers to runners stretching from sprints to routes.  IMO, Forte is a magnificent racehorse and a top-notch router probably best at a mile and an eighth. He could be a superior miler or win the Belmont that is yet to be seen. So, for the time being, I am against either.

However, in TAP I trust. and if there is a prop bet Forte vs National Treasure in the Belmont I will fade Forte. The curious horse, Prove Worthy, appears to be bred for a marathon not only because he lacks speed. Ha!

Lastly, Arcangelo deserves the steam, and Tapit Trice deserves the favoritism in my book.

[big18741]

Interested to see odds Forte goes off if he starts.Would\'nt shock me if he was 3rd choice.Seem\'s nobody likes him on top.

He\'s not for me on pedigree but feels like a pace factor.Unless Tapit Shoes is a send from the rail it feels like Forte is going along with NT.Hoping they go sub 1:13 for 6f\'s.If not my tickets are likely toast.

TT and Arcangelo look good on paper for the distance,but need a little pace.
No clue what to do with AOE at 12f\'s and blinkers on.Leaning against a new top.
Hit Show a little interesting but the Cox pair have to save some ground.
RR One a ground saving suck up candidate from the back if the pace is honest.

[Molesap]

I also think Tapit Trice will be favored - would not be surprised to see Forte drift a bit.

In the last nine editions of the Belmont Stakes run in at 1.5 miles, two sires have accounted for half of the exacta finishes and almost half of the trifecta finishes. Tapit has four winners, two seconds and two thirds, while Curlin has a first, two seconds and a third in the same time period. Note that a horse by Tapit has finished in the money in every 12f Belmont Stakes since 2014 except in 2022 (where there was no horse entered by Tapit). Also, Awesome Again has had a couple in the money finishes in the last seven years. Sires of recent Belmont trifecta finishers have been the following:

2022 - Uncle Mo, Curlin, Exaggerator
2021 - Tapit, Oxbow, Twirling Candy
2020 - pandemic version omitted
2019 - Awesome Again, Tapit, Shanghai Bobby
2018 - Scat Daddy, Lonhro, Tapit
2017 - Tapit, Curlin, Union Rags
2016 - Tapit, Giants Causeway, Tapit
2015 - Pioneerof the Nile, Tapit, Curlin
2014 - Tapit, AP Indy, Dynaformer
2013 - Curlin, Awesome Again, Malibu Moon

*Note two horses, Tapit Shoes and Tapit Trice are by Tapit. Four horses this year have Tapit as the damsire - Arcangelo, Il Miracolo, Hit Show, and Red Route One.

[pip4126]

Does anyone have any thoughts on this race? I keep coming back to Fort Bragg with blinkers on and back in Bafferts barn. Note he also has Arbian Lion.

[JEB]

Looks like the pace should be hot. I like General Jim, Fort Bragg, and maybe Gilmore

[jerry]

The dominant cross is TAPIT and FAPPIANO.

[big18741]

Forte running 2nd was a kick in the nuts.

[P-Dub]

big18741 Wrote:
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> Forte running 2nd was a kick in the nuts.

Sure was killed all my verticals. had a decent win ticket on the winner but ripped up everything else