EVERYBODY KNOWS...

[Roman]

Mo Donegal took the overland route , 8 wide, Rich Strike  stayed inside, had not a straw in his path on the rail. Winning move for Leon, but ground loss doesn't matter! Right Jerry?

[Bet Twice]

I think people are reading too much into this.
Trainer has no history of jump ups, and highly unlikely to try something new at one of the most scrutinized events of the year.
I would think "super trainers" unlikely to be using in preps given the scrutiny around the sport recently.  Not an expert, so it's possible, but would think people are pretty fearful and on best behavior.
Horse ran a 9 last year on dirt and didn't move forward on poly.  Maybe he didn't like the poly and his preps would have been better on the dirt.  Pattern not horrible, reasonable to expect a forward move.  Fast pace, great ride, and he got faster from 2 to 3.
Not suggesting I bet him, because I didn't, but there doesn't need to be some conspiratorial explanation for him to win.
I'll be interested to see the numbers coming out of the race.

[jerry]

No rebreaking by super trainer horses.

True only in that Eric Reed is not a super trainer. Otherwise, watch the replay again. Leaving the far turn the horse gets pinched in tight and checks before squeezing through and rebreaking. I actually allow for the possibility that this horse is just mean and getting sandwiched between horses just pissed him off and he ran rank crazy from then on.

Interesting point you make regarding super trainers not being able to ply their trade, a.k.a. doping, and that in turn leveled the playing field for clean trainers. If that is true, then it would be sheer madness to risk any wager on the derby simply because none of the data going into the race would be reliable because most of the horses would be "off dope" and who knows how they'll perform.

The only surprising thing about the Three Techniques race was his price. Of the 12 horses entered in the race, 6 had run within 1/2 point of a 1. He was one of them. If the result of this race was due to more stringent oversight and therefore a more level playing field, why didn't that show itself in any of the other races where chalk ruled?

The Lukas reference is irrelevant. Secret Oath was the second fastest horse coming into the race. He figured, regardless of his trainers graded stakes drought.

Yes, there was a fast pace that gassed any of them that ran close to it but there were plenty of better horses on paper that didn't. Poly/dirt? Maybe but it's not as though this was his first try on dirt.

The bottom line is on paper he was by far the slowest horse coming into the race and, as noted by our host, didn't deserve the slightest consideration because he was so hopelessly overmatched (has anybody figured out how he was 21st on the AE list with just over $74,000 in winnings?), and yet he won. Huh. Let's ask the experts.

[jerry]

Great. Now we're calling into question the accuracy of the figures. JB, can you handle this one?

[Flighted Iron]

Was it the math or the money why your pal only chose the second spot?

[jerry]

I respect your comments regarding Eric Reed. Regarding the strength of the field, not so much. This was a very strong field and, for the most part evenly matched, with several great patterns coming into the race. So many that the analysis had to add another category, B+.

[jerry]

You talking to me? If so, where in anything I've written did I suggest that?

[jerry]

I don't envy the figure maker.

[P-Dub]

Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> Was it the math or the money why your pal only
> chose the second spot?


Money meaning......

[arcadia123]

I agree with you in that I don\'t think Reed did anything inappropriate with Rich Strike.

I ask rhetorically; does any substance exist that could improve a horse from a single win of a M30K race with those running lines into a Kentucky Derby winner?  

If Reed did have some magic to inject, why would he not use it to get the horse some derby points and not chance having to be 20-something on the list hoping to get into the race.

I tip my hat to the Rich Strike and the connections.

[Roman]

His dam ran a 9 as a 2 year old, and ran a 0 at 3, so a 9 point jump was in the genes. Horse won fare and square, great ride by Leon, terrible ride by 15 other jockeys.

[Roman]

No , TGJB, sorry. It was a snark comment, of course ground loss matters, and it did greatly in the derby.

[sekrah]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Great. Now we're calling into question the
> accuracy of the figures. JB, can you handle this
> one?


Nothing new for me, I\'ve always called in the accuracy of the figures on horses who ran extreme slow or extreme fast fractions and make my own hand adjustments. You can\'t make up lost time and there\'s some races where they go so fast early, it would be several points faster if Jerry had recorded the figure to an earlier pole.

One of the most extreme ones I can remember that I brought to his attention, was when Sharp Azteca looked like a play on Belmont Day after he \"paired\" in the Pat Day Mile, but it was clear if the race was measured to 6f, he had run 3 1/2 pts faster and would be a bounce candidate on Belmont day.

Oh look, I found it!

https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,102811,102829#msg-102829

[sekrah]

Roman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> His dam ran a 9 as a 2 year old, and ran a 0 at 3,
> so a 9 point jump was in the genes. Horse won fare
> and square, great ride by Leon, terrible ride by
> 15 other jockeys.


I put the last one at 7 3/4, and he probably moved up to a 2 or 3 here, with most of the rest of the horses being compromised by the pace, ran far from optimal energy dispersion.

The Derby had a faster opening half mile than the Pat Day Mile.

People are looking for conspiracies where none exist. A plodder that was due (and ripe) for a developmental move up caught the perfect pace and trip. End of story. Again, slow the race down by 2/5ths at the half mile mark and he finishes 6th-8th, and no one cares that he moved up. Everything broke right for him.

[jbelfior]

He out kicked 3 horses that were 5-10 lengths better than him. Not one, but 3.

Checks midstretch behind a tiring Messier, then rebreaks.

If they do find something what would be the better option for CD....go public with it and blow up the Kentucky Derby result (again!!!) or sweep it under the hay?


Good Luck,
Joe B.