The Wood Memorial

[Tavasco]

My preliminary take is remembering this classic prep was downgraded to a Grade 2 recently. Initially, I thought the downgrade was a function of the race winners under-performing in the classics. Maybe. I\'ve long thought that wintering in N.Y. was no advantage for triple crown preparation.

So outside of the nine dots for a minute. South Florida trainer Joseph Saffie Jr. ships two arguably in fair to good form runners, from warm South Florida to a cool NY. Many will opine that the climates are a non-factor.

Mr. Saffie may not have the celebrity or home-field advantage of locals Pletcher, Brown but seemingly he anticipates easy pickings if not Saturday then maybe at Belmont soon after?

In the heart of Corporate America, it\'s nearly impossible to get by Plectcher Inc. Asmussen is likely to get a piece as his trainees are as dependable as the U.S. mail used to be. Lastly, Mike Maker\'s undefeated N.Y. Bred has winningest Aqu jockey up. Congrats Dylan.

So where do the Floridians fit in? The right brain likes them the left brain doesn\'t or is that vice-a-versa? If they end up taking money I\'ll really be confused!

[confused]

The only advantage that horses have, moving up from Florida this time of year, is climate.  They should like the colder weather.  Easier to breathe.

Having said that, Morello took a big step forward off his layoff and will be very tough if he moves forward again, if only a modest amount.  His main competition should come from Early Voting with a similar pattern and Golden Code who has improved from start to start (something you should want to see from horses at this stage).

[ajkreider]

Didn\'t Saffie win the trainer title at GP this winter?

[Molesap]

58 winners - 12 ahead of TAP.

[Tavasco]

I\'m thinking I\'ll chance a small pool bet on Morello before the Saturday Race and close of betting.

Some Trivia - Tacitus (3rd place finish in 2019) was the best Ky Derby result of a Wood graduate since Funny Cide.

[statuette]

Wasn't there a horse from the wood a few years back ran a huge number then bounced in derby

[Tavasco]

Several disappointments, I remember Outwork best. Verrazano, I remember he got a lot of steam before a tough derby trip. Bellamy Road?

I got spoiled by the Peace Rules, Funny Cide, Empire Maker series.

[statuette]

Bellamy road that's it he was fav going off in the derby and he only raced in travers finished 2nd to flower alley

[richiebee]

Bellamy Road negative 5 TG (I think 120 Beyer) in the Wood.

[BitPlayer]

One fun thing about Morello with the new timing of the futures pool is that you will have a good idea of his Wood odds before the futures pool closes.  That will allow you to evaluate which is the better option:  a futures bet or a Wood-Derby parlay.

To keep the numbers simple, say he looks to go off at 2-1 in the Wood and is 17-1 in the futures pool (currently 16-1).  Since he would pay $6 in the Wood and $36 to win in the futures pool, in order to bet him in the futures pool, you would have to think that (off a win in the Wood) he is likely to go off at less than 5-1 on Derby Day.

Of course, there are aother possibilities to consider.  He could run a good second in the Wood and then still run in the Derby (a la Funny Cide), but your parlay would be dead.  On the flip side, he could win the Wood and then have an issue that forces him to miss the Derby, allowing you to keep you Wood winnings.

[ajkreider]

Frosted ran big in the Wood, I believe.

[Tavasco]

Generally, I bet against two front runners going around on the lead together to produce an exacta. Yeh, It happens from time to time and when it does I tear up my tickets.

I\'m getting a picture of Early Voting & Morello running off from the rest. There would seem to be some other early speed but I wonder if they can hang with the top two?

TAP may have entered Long Term just to encourage suicidal early splits to set up Mo Donegal.

I like one or both SkippyLongStocking and Barese to make solid late moves depending on how well their riders judge the pace. I consider both boys competent with a slight nod to Dylan off his recent form.

The line maker and apparently the betting public seems to think it is a simple contest with three deserving favorites and Voila. I suppose I overestimate the other contenders seeing only positive moves from the pricey contenders.

Too further complicate with so many Turf and sprint races before the 8th & Wood Memorial I don\'t have a sense of how the track is playing tiring? Inside speed bias etc?

Oh well a simple stab here for me, a straight Morello over Barese.

Good Luck!

[Tavasco]

KISS - Saffie runs 3rd and 4th.