Paulick on late money

[Boscar Obarra]

https://paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/view-from-the-eighth-pole-will-racing-address-impact-of-computer-assisted-wagering/

I\'ll add this .  No one on the inside  looking to make a score would be waiting until the last 30 seconds .   And they aren\'t betting that kind of money  based on any \'value\' scenario.

[prist]

Is the wager log provided in the article just for FAST BUCK? I\'m thinking there was plenty of time there to look for other inefficiencies. All you need is a second ... or two. ;-)

[prist]

There goes my admiration for the NYRA. Article states they\'re part owner of Elite Turf Club.

Edit: Oops. That\'s NYRA Bets as co-owner.

[BitPlayer]

Tweets from those who should know suggest that the late action brought the win odds into line with other pools.  For example:

https://twitter.com/BSouthstreet/status/1509659992483196972

[BitPlayer]

I know, starting last summer, NYRA cut off the CAW groups from win pool betting after 3 MTP.  Based on info o_crunk provided on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/o_crunk/status/1509730311076298757

it looks like the move may have cost NYRA about 10% in win pool handle during the Aqueduct winter meet.

Boscar, you seem pay attention to NYRA betting patterns. Have you noticed any reduction in late odds changes in the win pool?

[Boscar Obarra]

Not sure when o_crunk posted, but I think I was the first one on the planet to mention the win pool thing at NYRA, day 1 . Right here on the TG board

 Of course the win pool has completely changed character since the cutoff.

 I find it a bit odd too, that they haven\'t adapted better.

[Boscar Obarra]

Most of the time,  a punch like that will be an adjustment to the other pools, that\'s a given .

  The question is, how did the other pools get to where THEY were.  Something the twitter crowd seems to have overlooked.

  Knocking the win price down at the very end like that  never made a lot of sense on the face of it ,  you\'re just encouraging normal  people to bet at the higher odds before you get down.  

  Maybe  they\'re afraid  of folks piggybacking their \'smart\' money, if they bet too soon.

[rezlegal]

Stronach is also part owner of Elite! The tracks really really care about the bettors!

[Boscar Obarra]

speaking of first on the planet

didnt watch the last two days, but seeing some differences in the pool distribution  today.  new meet, maybe they changed  something


EDIT:  gonna keep watching , this 5th race was old school exacta smash

you like that 2-1 over 36 -1 , coming back$ 52

was 136 before they crushed the 5 AND the 2 in the ex

[prist]

Tampa Bay Downs

Track officials say there\'s nothing to get excited about. It\'s just another \"delay in the cycling of odds.\"

Whatever.

[Socalman3]

prist Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tampa Bay Downs
>
> Track officials say there\'s nothing to get excited
> about. It\'s just another \"delay in the cycling of
> odds.\"
>
> Whatever.

Wow...really amazing video...am glad somebody saved it for posterity. How soon will racetracks just stop showing the odds to avoid this embarrassment.

Also, I went back and looked at the PPs.  The horse in question was a clear front runner -- a sprinter running against routers -- so he really figured to get the lead.  The risk on those sort of horses is that they get a bad break.  There used to be a method of late posting of bets where if you put the bet in with a teller close enough in time to the break, you had time to watch the break and still cancel the bet.  So, just hypothetically -- somebody could have made a $5000 bet with the teller -- waited to watch the break - and then not cancel since the horse got the good lead.  However, if the horse had not broken well, they would have cancelled.  The bet doesn\'t make it into the pool until the cancel period is over.  Does anybody else remember this or am I off in right field?  Talking to younger people about betting with tellers is like talking to a dog about lettuce.  Anyway, this extreme version we see here of the late odds drop could be as a result of a large bet made with a teller just before the gate sprung.

[Socalman3]

incorrect message

[Boscar Obarra]

Interesting theory, but not sure you can cancel a 5000 bet all at once at a teller. If someone knows differently ....

  Might be possible to do it at a hub though.