Even Blind Squirrels

[Tavasco]

Find Nuts Occasionally.

Is an old saying implying the unlikely rarely, but not never, end up with a prize or something to that effect?

I\'m been betting and touting Japanese horses on this board for at least a decade. I\'ve been beaten black and blue in U.S. races and been vindicated @ Dubai & Meydan.

Once again I have a prospect in the B.C. Juvenile. Jasper Great from Arrogate\'s first crop out of a good mare.

I won\'t be able to lay off the unbeaten colt at anything near the double-digit morning line odds. Arrogate was probably great because of PED\'s but it\'s a fun tradition for me now.

Heard it here first.

[Gary Irish]

The dam Shop Again did produce the good Baffert Runner Power Broker by Pulpit.

Ever since, she has burned a ton of sales money.

2012 filly by Malibu Moon $1M - earned $73k

2015 filly by Tapit $500k - earned $26k

2016 colt by Pioneerofthenile $200k - $6k

2017 filly by Curlin $325k - unraced.

But hope springs eternal. Good Luck.

[bluechip21]

I still cannot believe how breeders / buyers continue to pay top dollar for horses trained by Baffert. It\'s like they time and time again do not learn their lesson. The answer is right in front of them and yet they still for over money hand over fist.

[Tavasco]

The BC site seemed to imply Shop Again was something. Being by Wild Again a BC race winner. But as Gary points out she has simply burnt money as a Dam.

So I went to Equibase to see how she fared in competition. A Florida bred, she debuted @ SAR in 2004 and took until 2006 (some 16 races later) to win her first race. A 40-45k maiden claiming race at Belmont. Trained by H. Jerkens and ridden by Chantal (Lady Godiva) Sutherland. Claimed by James Imperion out of that race.

She left New York for easier pickings and found just that at Prarie Meadows and Remington. Eventually getting fast enough to win a minor Stakes and Allowance race in good time.

Apparently with a questionable racing future and the advancin=ng years she was sold to a Japanese buyer as breeding stock.

Bottom Line as you point out

She is/was a tomato can!

Whatever hope I had in Jasper Great, is a tiny fraction of what it was. How he won a stakes race at a major Japanese track (by 10 lengths) really clouds the picture probably reducing the amount of my bet to the minimum.

[Gary Irish]

Yikes!

I did not mean to impart my own personal biases onto your runner. He could be anything! I merely stated facts.

I use the pedigree site much too much. It is a habit I am trying to lessen.

My personal bias is against sire sons of Unbridled\'s Song, who famously had bad feet. He has been a wonderful sire ( a great damsire) but not a great sire of sires. Liam\'s Map has risen to the top of his sons.

While I regard Arrogate with the same doubt as the others, nothing has been determined. He is off to a slow start, that is all.

[statuette]

I just saw on YouTube Jasper greats race visually impressive Jasper Race

[drbillym]

I am leaving all Japanese entrants out.  They have had years of failure and I suspect an underlying problemwith their overall approach.  

My best wager will be on Koala Princess.

[shanahan]

Perhaps the goal was to breed her to The Green Monkey - but two wrongs wouldn\'t necessarily make a right.

[Tavasco]

Koala Princess in a race with none of the fillies attracting too much attention. @ 6/1 I\'ll join you. I like everything about this one. Love the sire\'s (More Than Ready) progeny on the turf. Add to that the Dam\'s Sire Lonrho is/was a super sire down under.

Versatile, ran from the front in her sprint debut and from off the pace strongly stretching out. IMO, Rosario rides more correctly than mistakenly. Thanks for the idea DB.

[drbillym]

But I do like the horse named Japan.  Lost to Gufo in Sword Dancer with a terrible trip-woulda won easily.  Next in Joe Hirsch did nothing, but his regular jockey stayed behind.  Check out Japan\'s results with Ryan Moore rather than Lordan.

[statuette]

O'Brien horse?

[confused]

What was the distance of that race?  9 furlongs? A mile and 3/16s?

[statuette]

9 furlong's

[Fairmount1]

Shop Again\'s dam Shopping was an Allen Jerkens/Hobeau Farm runner also.

In addition to Shop Again, she produced Trappe Shot ($700k+ earner) and Miss Shop ($1.1 million + earner).

[Tavasco]

In uninflated $\'s.  As uninspiring as the dam may be, she won\'t be running and the colt truly could be any kind and may or may not tun his race. One reason why I love this sport so much.

Thanks for the added data Fairmount, just doing deep research or considering the grey at the price?