Preakness Pass

[grinder]

It certainly has been an odd week to say the least, trying to decipher the musings of the trainer at issue and whether this time it was another completely innocent oversight or something more nefarious.

Regardless of the results of the split sample test results, and what other revelations may emerge from the relevant parties in the future, bettors have a decision to make tomorrow. How do I bet the Preakness with the information available right now?

I\'m passing the race. Given the absolute non-effort of Beautiful Gift in the Black-Eyed Susan, I have no idea what to expect of Baffert\'s horses in Preakness and who does?

This crap has to stop one way or another. If we stop betting - maybe they would notice.

[TreadHead]

I wouldn\'t read much into Baffert\'s BES horse not running well.  One of the dangers of being dogmatic about TG numbers and patterns is that you might be ignoring incorporating horse flesh evaluation, which could be a big piece of the story about what figure the horse might run today.  I heard any number of analysts on podcasts this week talking about how small and short-legged Beautiful Gift was and that the distance would be a definite question.

[T Severini]

grinder Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
I have no idea what to expect of Baffert\'s
> horses in Preakness and who does?
>

Can\'t remember the last time I saw a Baffert Favorite in a Graded Stakes run up the track like that. Clear X

I Believe \"Beautiful Steroid\" was wide, never made the lead and seemed to be without that edge.  Clearly Baffert can\'t risk a positive right now.

Only Baffert on the Card.

The Black Eyed Susan has suddenly inspired and filled me with an angle!

I\'d like to know per Tgraph what percentage of Baffert Graded Stakes Favorites X

[Dana666]

You get a sinking feeling after that performance.  One caveat though--there seems to be an ungodly rail bias there. You\'d think Medina will be on the rail. I don\'t blame you though.  Pimlico is a screwy track to begin with. Baffert has a horse in Race 1 tomorrow, Hozier. The rest have been removed from his barn.

[Fairmount1]

Grinder,

I agree with your thought re: this race being a poor race to wager upon.  

If not for the Baffert/MS circus extravaganza, I see Concert Tour as a superstar play for several reasons I wont get into.  But given the eyes upon the barn, the multiple tests, the MS positive test after Derby, and the performance today far back in the BES by Beautiful Gift, it is hard to take that stand.  

Another reason (besides the circus surrounding Baffert horses that may mean they don\'t have their usual \"prep\" for the race) is the lack of wagering on these two horses so far in doubles and the win pool.  We all have a pretty good idea what the wagering public does when we look at the PP\'s.  MS and CT look like 8 to 5 and 5-2 with Bourbon around 5-2 to 3-1 to my mind.  And certainly no way I see MB as the favorite on paper.  The win pool at last report I saw had Midnight Bourbon at 5 to 2, MS at 7-2, and CT at 4-1.  This speaks volumes.  

As some of you may recall, Baffert won with Gamine, Du Jour and MS on Derby Day.  A horse who didn\'t win was Defunded in the Pat Day Mile.  The horse ran a monster race:  The chart says 6 wide turn, 6 path upper, flattened, beaten 4 3/4 lengths behind Jackie\'s Warrior as the 2nd choice at 3.10-1.  There is no way that horse should have been 3-1 in that 11 horse field.  In the G2 American Turf, Du Jour went off at 5-1 in a 14 horse field (3rd choice) and Baffert won that one by a comfortable 1 1/2 lengths.  (anyone recall Hellmers \"interview\" when Bob said he isn\'t set up for turf race in his barn LOL).  Baffert said in a 30 min interview the week after the Derby (before the big news) that he thought he would be the KING OF THE UNDERCARD.  He thought all 3 of those would win but Defunded just wasn\'t as good as those he commented in the interview.  My point is his horses got hammered when they were well intended.  And those two I cited suggest that someone is attempting to cash in when he thinks they are READY, SET, GO.  

So for neither CT nor MS to be the favorite speaks Volumes.  Now maybe they are able to get one or both of these horses their usual \"prep\" for the big race.  Maybe they are not.  But the betting suggests right now that they aren\'t and someone knows it.  

Some may view this as an opportunity to toss both and really take a swing.  But then I\'m reminded of Firenzie Fire who was under the care of Servis but has continued to grind out wins under a different trainer.  So it is hard to say how this all plays out esp with lack of pace in some people\'s eyes.  

Personally, I have no confidence I have an opinion that could be wagered here with the circus and lack of betting on Baffert and the BES (lack of) effort.  I\'m with ya grinder, I\'m passing the race.  Baffert is sitting back in California and telling people he is Not Winning Jewel 2 it seems.  Maybe by race time, he says they are GO.  Who knows.  I certainly don\'t.  Now if I find something at Arlington or Canterbury this weekend, I might pick on a few races there.

Good Luck to those brave enough to say they know what happens in the Preakness and successfully wager.  I think it a complete farce they are letting this guy run horses. . .

[TGJB]

Richieâ€" do you know how much money it would take to move a horse from 3-1 to 2-1 in a TC race? In this case Medina wasn’t one of the Derby favorites, and there is of course the scandal (and doubts about him because of it) as well. And another Baffert who was higher thought of all year pre Arkansas Derby.

Yes, when Baffert likes one everybody knows it. And he still went off a price in the Derby. I wouldn’t put much weight on the betting.

[Marlin]

About 10,000 Mattresses, when some dude name MAC makes a sales refund money back guarantee.

[MonmouthGuy]

Anyone else see similarities between Risk Taking and Cloud Computing? Draw a line through the Wood and he has a bettable pattern. Will be my key.

[HP]

I will pass. Looks like lose/lose for horse racing.

If Baffert wins (and I think he will) it will generate some sympathy for him. I will skip the diatribe, this is bad for racing.

If Baffert loses it will amplify all this and they will be talking about drugs (not like us, where one might say he backed up off an effort). After the mess they’ve made with Lasix, this does not fill me with optimism either.

Good ones on the undercard. Enjoy the day!

[confused]

The only way to bet a suspected drug trainer is to bet him, because you never know.  If he wins his 25 to 30% you win 25 to 30% and you\'re happy to take it.  And, by the way, they hit at all prices.

[hellersorr]

I just don\'t see how Concert Tour is 7-2 with twenty minutes to post.  To me he\'s 3-2, not 7-2.

[hellersorr]

Uh, let me know when Concert Tour finishes the race. . .

[Roman]

He’s passing the quarter pole now!