Baffert Should Be Afforded Due Process

[statuette]

It’s funny I feel the same way I use to feel about the trotters

[Caradoc]

JB,

We are not a point where we can say with any confidence what effect the Beta had on MS.  One reason is that what we know about this matter is what Baffert has chosen to reveal. That’s it, period. We have no veterinary records. We have no testimony from any veterinarian as to what MS was given, why, and when. And some of what Baffert has revealed is gossamer, like the groom urination story, which Mary Scollay effectively debunked in the interview I posted earlier this week, and which Baffert has apparently now abandoned. In the same vein, we have no basis to conclude that the photo he supplied of a horse showing a skin ailment is MS, or even if it is of MS, when it was taken, although some good legwork by Natalie Voss has concluded that the metadata indicates that photo was taken on Tuesday May 11th, two days ago, well after the Derby. So in sum, we know virtually nothing in terms of the relevant facts of the horse’s condition at various points, including on Derby Day.

If by the effect was negligible you mean that even in its intended use, Beta would not have moved up MS as Clenbuterol or EPO would have, ok. But at the same time, we can’t even say at this point that MS could have raced without the benefit of a powerful corticosteroid that was administered 72 hours before test time. It\'s possible he has some serious inflammation or a hind end issue. Maybe not but again, why haven’t the vet(s) who treated him been produced and the vet records provided? And what else was he being treated with, so that we are able to determine what interactions there might have been between Beta and other medications/treatments, another relevant consideration? Since Baffert seems to be largely in crisis-management mode, it’s hard to understand why we haven’t been provided with all that evidence if it’s exculpatory.

I realize you aren’t here to defend Baffert and I’m not here to prosecute him either. But to give him any benefit of the doubt requires us now to believe that before the biggest race on our calendar, with a purse of approximately $1.5M, potentially millions of dollars of stud fees at stake, a race he had won six times prior, and with a raft of drug positives that he promised to reverse, even going so far six months ago to trumpet that he was hiring an independent veterinarian to provide additional oversight for his barn (which never happened, by the way), that he was so grossly negligent as to treat an ailment with Otomax, a product that contained what he knew to be a regulated substance, a fact which appeared on the Otomax label.  It’s a lot to swallow.

[TGJB]

Everybody needs to read what I have said more carefully (I.E., my point about IF Medina runs well in the Preakness what it would say about the (non) effect of the drug in the Derby).

To my knowledge the groom pissing story wasn’t about this occurrence, and I’m not aware of anything saying Baffert himself put the ointment on the horse or was even aware of it. He may well have been 3,000 miles away. Which doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be DQ’dâ€" but it means that point is irrelevant.

For the rest I’m tired of repeating myself. He had a positive with Gamine last year, same weekend, same testing regimen, same drug. He’s not an idiot, he’s not suicidal. And he would have to beâ€" with absolutely minimal upside.

[PonyBologna]

I can\'t believe anyone would buy the \"he isn\'t stupid\" defense. Yes, he is. He\'s cheated even after being caught cheating. That sounds pretty stupid to me.

[TGJB]

If he cheated he is stupid. See? We agree.

[DenverDoc]

I’ve been using TG FIGS for 2 years and finally am compelled to say something on this board.  TGJB, your reasoning makes sense to me.  Since the risk/benefit isn’t worth using the ointment even close to the race, the only thing that makes sense assuming Baffert is a rational person is that Medina had a joint injected with the steroid recently, and they kept using the ointment as a cover story if it was detected.  At least that’s the only way it makes sense to me.

[TGJB]

IF it got detected?

A) he knows from Gamine last year it WOULD be detected.

B) no cover story would keep the horse from being DQ’d. So he wouldn’t get the win or the money, and would get a fine, suspension and disgrace.

Yeah, why not.

[makrmark]

so you are dismissing the servis/navarro playbook where what they were giving would possibly trigger false positives for small amounts of dex,etc? It just very suspicious to have multiple minor contaminations in a short period.

[Strike]

October 20, 2020. Filly Gamine was disqualified from third to last in the Kentucky Oaks on Sept. 4 after testing positive with 27 picograms of betamethasone. Baffert did not appeal and was fined $1,500.

Hopefully, this case will go away as easily as that one did assuming the split comes back positive (and I think it will -- I am sure a positive test on the Kentucky Derby winner was retested 100 times by the lab).

Please -- no appeals.
Please -- no lawsuits.

[TGJB]

I’m not dismissing anything. I’m saying there is no scenario IN THIS CASE where it’s intentional that makes sense.

I mentioned it before, but us Met fans remember Jerry Mejia, our closer who got nailed three (3) times for the same easily testable steroid and banned for life.
That’s the closest thing I can think of to what this would have to be. But as I said before, that guy had less to lose and more to gain. And was no genius. Presumably he’s bagging groceries somewhere.

[Caradoc]

It is one possibility, but absent seeing the vet records and Baffert/Zedan (btw, where is he in all this?) making all treating vets available to speak on all relevant topics, all of this is guesswork at best.

In short, this is another explanation as to why he doesn\'t have to be stupid to have \"cheated.\" The horse might have needed Beta to make it to the starting gate, or even to pass vet inspection, and Baffert might have learned from the Gamine episode some methods he believed would conceal the administration. I\'ve lost track of how many times over the years I have read on this board some version of the \"cheaters are decades ahead of the testers.\" He might have rationally concluded that he could escape detection.  Who knows? All I know so far is that what we have been told is BS from Bobby, which makes it hard to credit any of his explanations, even that the horse was ever given Otomax.

[PonyBologna]

Wait, this isn\'t his first foray into the doping scene, is it? I seem to recall one or two or a dozen other stories like this (Merneith, Gamine and the aptly-named Charlatan come to mind.) Each one taking place after he had already been caught before. I believe there is ample evidence that he is, in fact, stupid. Criminals aren\'t known for their immense ability to stop themselves from committing crimes, especially when they repeatedly get away with it.

[makrmark]

not to mention EGO...this put him top of the list with derby wins

[richiebee]

JB:

Again, I am pretty certain that under \"absolute insurer\" rules the \"I\" word
...\"intent\" ... is not taken into consideration.

A trainer who did NOT have an extensive record of overages might get the benefit
of the doubt or leniency in a case such as this, Baffert will not.

[Strike]

If I was the CEO of Merck, I would not be happy that Baffert has thrown Otomax into the mix of what possibly caused the positive. He says the treatment began on April 3 and stopped on May 1. The hind end photo (not dated but believed to be May 11) shows what appears to be significant dermatitis -- implying the product after a month plus of daily application just doesn\'t work.