The 146th Kentucky Derby Field

[ajkreider]

If there\'s one thing the last 15 years of the Derby has shown, it\'s that ground loss has little effect on the winner.

Last year was the first year in forever that that horse with the best figure didn\'t win -  meaning that ground loss doesn\'t cost a horse the win in the Derby.

Find the horse that will run the best fig, and you found the winner.

I will bet against, but not because he got a wide draw.

[Strike]

17 Post for KY Derby 0-41. Of course I am sure none were 3/5 morning odds -- still in a field of 18 for this race -- no thanks.

[Molesap]

Assuming the field stays intact (which nowadays seems like a big assumption) with 18 horses they will leave the first gate and last gate open, so Tiz the Law will actually be in gate 18 (and if just one scratches, I think they leave gates 1-2-20 open so he will likely start in gate 18 anyways). It will be Honor A.P. in the 17 hole then trying to buck history 90 years of history. With their new fancy starting gate, it seems fitting that the first Kentucky Derby winner from that gate will be from post 17 - the only post yet to produce a winner in that race. They just used the new gate in race 2 o Tuesday for a 10f MSW at CD as a test and from the head on, you can see that post 1 is still offset from the rail so if they had a full 20 horse field that horse literally starts right at the rail and has to make a right turn while most of the horses on the outside are making a left turn.

I think you have to weigh the chances of a horse being caught wide from an outside post with the chances that a horse will bumped around on the inside. At least with the ground loss you know what you are going to get most of the time - you take your chances on the inside. In the Derby, these two things tend to counterbalance each other in some cases. Also, depending on the horse, the length of time in the starting gate could be a negative factor. They will load in pairs with 1-9 simultaneously loading with 10-18. So if you are in those early loaded gates, you will be standing for a longer period of time. It is difficult to predict who will be the recipient of a bad trip â€" who would have ever thought Thunder Snow would come out of the gate like it was the rodeo? Some horses have had fabulously clean trips from the inner posts and of course having a bit of gate speed helps here but it is always a crapshoot.

If you look at all the races in the 2000’s, winners have come from all over the place except the inside. The last winner from the inside three posts was Real Quiet in 1998. Here are the number of winners from each post in the 2000’s. It is interesting that 5 and 15 have 1/3 of the wins between them:

Winners â€" Post Position
0 â€" 1,2,3,6,9,11,12,14,17
1 â€" 4,10,18,19,20
2 â€" 7,8,13,16
3 â€" 15
4 â€" 5

Here are the number of winners for each post position since they instituted the starting gate at Derby in 1930.

PP-Wins
1-8
2-7
3-5
4-5
5-10
6-2
7-7
8-8
9-4
10-9
11-2
12-3
13-5
14-2
15-5
16-4
17-0
18-2
19-2
20-1

[jbelfior]

The early King G, Ny Traffic, Authentic matchup will be interesting. I\'m thinking they run the same race for him as they did on his comeback in Tampa. Puts JV in a stalking position which may not be Authentic\'s strength. Paco may not be far off of that. TTL will have more ground to make up on the turn than he did in the Travers and will be wide while doing it.

I\'m looking for a strung out field as they approach the quarter pole. Someone with a clean inside trip coming from out of it may get lucky on Saturday.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Marlin]

Post positions get a bit too much discussion here @ KY Derby time.  Yes, Way out bad, way in bad, but most all OK.  It really depends on the horse.

I recall watching people circling the GYM parking lot searching for the closest spot so their walk to the door is shortest, before running on the tread mill for 30 minutes.  Really?

Might as well, start watching data on pre-race warm ups & count calories burned by horses before race to see whom will has enough reserved energy for 1.25 Miles.

Putting it in perspective in ODD Derby year.

Happy Hunting to all & yes, looks like can be a big tote board this year.

[BitPlayer]

I think the effect of ground loss is often offset, at least in part, by the benefits of a cleaner trip.  I analyzed some Derby stats a couple of years ago and found that, among horses who ran reasonably well, horses in the 2 or 3 path going into the first turn ran between three-quarters and one point better relative to their previous top than their counterparts getting a rail trip.

[TGJB]

Someone should tell Borel and Cordero. I think they won 6 Derbies 1w1w.

Watch the Cannonade Derby some time. 24 horse field, from dead last.

[boardedup]

I agree w Tampa, but it seems like Tampa form struggles to be repeated in KY?  But it’s 2020 who knows?  I do like the King G though, little bit of the 5 underneath likely for me as well..

[Tavasco]

A lot of detailed work. But the configuration of this years starting gate is different than in previous years so apples & oranges. IMO.

[BitPlayer]

Just to clarify a couple of things:

2w and 3w on the first turn were better than 1w.  4w and out were not.

The traffic difference I found was only a point or less.  Since being wider on the first turn usually leads to being wider on the second turn, there is still generally a benefit to being inside on the first turn (e.g., 3w3w vs 1w1w is 2 points of ground loss at 10 furlongs and more than offsets the 1 point benefit of less traffic).

Here\'s my data (please forgive data entry errors) for the points system years (2013-2019) in the format you use for your Derby studies.

Turn 1 path (number of horses)
% Top
% Pair
% Off
% X

1w (36)
8.3
22.2
27.8
41.7

2w (30)
23.3
23.3
20.0
33.3

3w (35)
11.4
28.6
22.9
37.1

4w (21)
9.5
14.3
14.3
61.9

5w (10)
10.0
10.0
40.0
40.0

[leamas57reborn]

I bet therefore I am

[wrongly1]

Really please why do these crap pot ideas always come out prior to derby?  Yes, trip makes a difference.  Wow, thanks for the news bulletin.  How on earth does that data help you?  So Authentic ruins himself to get the rail.  Oh joy but no telling how good the EPO juice is!  Storm the Court gets the dream ride to grab the rail and that will prove you point?  You pay money for the figures not this nonsense!

[kencbs]

Also 50-1 Mine That Bird (which I\'ve thought about almost every day the last 11 years or however long it\'s been)

[P-Dub]

wrongly1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Really please why do these crap pot ideas always
> come out prior to derby?  Yes, trip makes a
> difference.  Wow, thanks for the news bulletin.
> How on earth does that data help you?  So
> Authentic ruins himself to get the rail.  Oh joy
> but no telling how good the EPO juice is!  Storm
> the Court gets the dream ride to grab the rail and
> that will prove you point?  You pay money for the
> figures not this nonsense!


I see your channeling your inner P-Dub.

[TempletonPeck]

Everyone bitches all year that there aren\'t more/better/meaningful posts, then when someone posts something data-driven, you call him an idiot.