Arkansas Derby Notes - Charlatan Division

[nicely nicely]

Here is a link to the sheets, race shapes, and brief comments for the first division of the Arkansas Derby.  

With Charlatan\'s presence, it\'s probably more of an opportunity to get a thread going to discuss sheet patterns than bet.

http://www.thorograph.com/equibase/arkderby1div.pdf

[bluechip21]

I appreciate your analysis.

Regarding your comment on Gov Morris. You make an interesting point about not being raced between the Futurity and that Tampa race. Looking through Todd\'s past few pre-derby seasons, it seems that he would usually have at least one more race before the first Saturday in May. Off only a 3 point top, a slight move forward is about all you can ask for here. So he\'d need for Charlatan to get left at the get and pulled up for him to have a shot. That said, if building tickets trying to beat the mighty Bob, he is the obvious \"next best\".

Another horse you highlighted was Winning Impression. Looking back at Dallas\' back to back derby place horses in 2013 and 2014, this one has a very similar pattern to Commanding Curve and Golden Soul (more so GS than CC, with CC paring then moving forward to a new top). But the point being that they paired the 2YO top of around the same number (5 vs 6 in this case) and moved forward. I wouldn\'t be shocked to see this one get up underneath.

It\'s a difficult decision to make with Charlatan in this horizontal sequence. Do you single and press (heavily)? Single and spread other races looking for prices? Or, waste a small percentage of your bankroll trying to beat him?

[johnnym]

Very cool
Question:
How did you add the notes to the sheets?
Is that a program or special feature?
I’ve been driving my self crazy trying to find a way to bring all my handicapping information to one central area to better analyze it.
Ty
John
P.S
I really want to try and beat him, but who is gonna go with him?

[nicely nicely]

It\'s a built-in function of Adobe Acrobat Pro.

There are other, less expensive or free, PDF programs out there where you can add notes by keyboard or a stylus pen. A simple websearch will yield many options.

[bluechip21]

I have the same problem Johnny. I thought the Miller horse would send with him but now he\'s out. Maybe the Maker horse adding Kendrich tries to run with him?

... I think our only hope is if Declan takes a right handed turn out of the gate.

[ajkreider]

As the notes mention, unless it\'s sloppy, hard to see WI making any noise.  

If there\'s money to be made it\'s sneaking someone into the tri. It\'s a big enough field that even a Charlatan/Guv/Anneau would pay something.  But I\'d roll the dice with Mosa sneaking in.

First try on dirt was a bust - they threw him into a G2 - but obvious talent there second out on this very strip. Will he bounce, probably - but 30-1 ML makes it worth a flier.

Basin has value, and I get the slop angle.  But more worried that his two big numbers were sprints.

[kitkat23310]

The number is the number. I think value may come from the race after this first division and the last race of the night.  Im wagering pick 4:   charlatan with all with King Guillermo and Silver Prospector (throwing out last slop race) with all in last race.  not only do i think this ticket will be a great shot to win but tons of potential value up for grabs especially with Mr Freeze.