My ROTW - Tampa Race 7

[shanahan]

Taking JB\'s challenge, inspired by Roger\'s longshot plays, and a nod to Alan, here goes:
As of 9:00 am here in DFW, there are 14 entries and the outsiders are AE of course.
# 5 Drama Chorus sits at 12:1 with a major JKY switch in his 3RD start.  Best fig by anyone in the field in their young careers.  Pletcher\'s entries will take the $$ and justifiably so as both are price y - if you follow \"Racing with Jason\" you\'ve heard is take on auciton price and how much it was over the breeding fee.  Well, TAP # 6 was 9 x fee of $85k, and TAP # 8 was 16 x fee of %15K.  Ortiz and JV are logical plays for the player.  However, neither sires are known 1st timers with just 6 & 8 % respectively.
# 5 Drama chorus at 12:1 ML looks good to me.  Exactas with 2(scr),3,6,8
I see just now that 2 and 14 are out.  Replacing 2 int he EX with 12 for Glyshaw who likes the first time action and the sire himself is 13% 1sters.
Play 5 up and down with 3,6,8,12

[TGAB]

I won\'t talk anyone off a 12-1 shot with just 2 races under their belt. That said Padilla\'s Msw stats are stronger 1st out and I think the horse ran to that. Five point bounce five weeks later is suspect, but young horses can snap back quickly and with three more weeks recovery time, this guy could to.

I like the other horses you mention and am always leery of Pletcher w/1st timers especially on big race days. His 1st out stats speak to his prowess in this spot and auction prices as you note imply that despite the relatively low 1st out stats the horses had a positive physical appeal.

Good luck.