While Your Focused on Tracks NOT Running How About The Ones That Are - Fairgrounds

Started by Silver Charm, December 22, 2019, 07:42:16 AM

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Silver Charm

Rain wiped out a decent Card yesterday. However there were a few interesting things and races that occurred.

1) Brad Cox has a deep stable. TONS of new clients and quality stock. He is also WAY over bet in every race. He is the Chad Brown of Saratoga. The Jason Servis of GP. He got me once with a 10 post firster that I took a stab with. His 2YO filly who blew away the field in the Stake (3rd race?) Looks like the goods.

2) Mark Casse sent out some LIVE ones and I POPPED. While this might he considered a B Track for him with GP #1 dont be fooled. War of Will built a Triple Crown resume here

3) Assumussen was overbet and a little cold. He had a lot of good 2YO last year. Expect them to be here and Oaklawn.

4) Mike Maker did his usual and snuck in to town and took down a purse. Joe Sharp is sneaky quiet. Tom Amoss won the double. This will be a good meet.

And BTW did I tell guys about 3 weeks ago Navarro sucked at GP. Lol had to get that one in. Happy Holidays

shanahan

Could not agree more - good fields yesterday, bad news with the rain of course.  Maker horse had no business winning that one.  None.  Not close on the figs anyway...and t wasn\'t even for Ken and Sarah.
Doesn\'t look like the big crowds are there at FG yet, but I\'ll make a trip for sure.  Too long between between the French Quarter restaurants - you\'ll recognize them, they stand between the topless bars and t shirt shops which now populate the whole Quarter (at least last visit).
On the other hand, a visit to the WWII museum in on the agenda - I\'m told it\'s terrific.

Silver Charm

There are some good horsemen and horses there. The last TWO Kentucky Oaks winners have come out of here. Gun Runner ran here. The grass course stays in good shape where GP can get a bit choppy with year round use.

Bet Twice

Speaking of the Kentucky Oaks, Out for a Spin bounced badly there off her win in the Ashland, but could be tough in this race.  Took some time off and came back with a decent prep 6 weeks ago.  I could see her getting back to that top, which would make her very tough here.  Getting weight and is 12-1 ml.

Will protect in exactas with the 1 and 8.

The 1 could easily move forward as a 4 year old for new trainer Stidham, coming off a lay-off.

Tough to say which way the 8 will go, but is quite fast at her best.

Thanks for the annual gift TGJB, always a fun week.

Molesap

Moonlight Garden seems tough to beat at a price that will likely be around even money. Her worst races in the past year have been as good as the best races from most of these. She comes into this race with 28 days of intervening rest and has two works since her last. Cox had been able to get three good runs that would likely win this race if she ran back to them and two OK runs that are still competitive with all of the field. She has a record of 3-1-1-1 at FG and 11-3-4-2-at the distance. Connections are about as solid as they come â€" in my book she is the most likely winner. However, as Bet Twice noted, Out for a Spin looks like she could be an overlay here if her morning line odds hold up. She jumped up with a huge win in the Ashland at big odds, then flopped in the Kentucky Oaks. She was then put on the shelf for six months and came back to ran a nonthreatening third in what to me, seemed like a better than looked effort while earning her second best lifetime figure, which is competitive with most of the field. Given she is about to become a 4YO in a week so she may have matured in that six months off, I think there is a reasonable chance she still has a forward move in her. If she does, she should be competitive in this field. I do not see her getting back to her lowest figure from the Ashland, but do see her improving enough to hit the exacta. I also think she could be the controlling pace and speed is always dangerous on the front end. For any exotics, I am leaning heavily on these two - so ultimately I agree with Bet Twice for the most part here.

BitPlayer

A lot of people agree with you.  Out for a Spin opened at even money and looks like she will be 2-1 or 5-2 based on doubles.