Woodbine Mile

[grinder]

Given the current weather forecast of significant rain tonight in the Toronto region,  the turf course will probably have some give to the ground for tomorrow\'s turf races.

As GS will be carrying co-top weight in the race, even if she pairs her last  effort, she could be vulnerable in here. Also, based on her race on a soft-turf course at Belmont last year, she may not like a less than firm course.

The dynamics of the one-turn mile may help RB, as he is slightly faster than GS at the weights and will only lose ground on one turn. However, he is a stone-cold closer, and his running style often results in less than ideal trips.

After looking at the race, I think that there are a few live long shots that could get a big piece of the race.

El Tormenta (20-1) - He has essentially paired the same number in his last four races at Woodbine. However, in his last race, he was bottled up inside on the backstretch and turn and then blocked and shut-off when he was making a move in the stretch. He made a belated close when clear late and galloped out well. Therefore, his last TG number is better than it appears. He should also save some ground in this race, as he has drawn inside and loves this course. I also like the rider switch to Da Silva.

Awesometank (8-1) Based on her assigned weight of 116 - her last TG number makes her almost as fast as the M/L favourites. However, she is coming off a top and could react, but is usable at double digit odds. She ran very game in the Beverly D and held on for a clear second to Sistercharlie. I also think she will like the turn-back to a flat mile and softer ground should not be a problem.

Admiralty Pier (30-1)- Drawn on the extreme outside, but could be cycling back to a big TG number he ran at Tampa in February.  

Good Luck.

[Bet Twice]

JB’s mention of this race made me take a look.  Agree that the favorite seems vulnerable.  My thouhgts:
 
1. El Tormento (20-1)  I won’t try to talk anyone off this horse at those odds, but he’s not for me.  I watched the replay of his last, and didn’t seem all that bad â€" he wasn’t winning regardless of trip.  Breeding suggests he’s better suited to sprinting, and pp’s don’t show otherwise.  Projecting a 3-4.

2. Lucullan (8-1)  Consistent horse but “ouchy”.  Expect him to run a 3, and at the weights and possible inside trip makes him a borderline contender with a ~2.  Will use underneath.

3. Silent Poet (15-1)  I’d expect a bounce, although doesn’t have.  Can’t see a forward move.  Another whose breeding and record would point to preferring shorter.  Projecting a 3-4.

4. Synchrony (6-1)  Consistent horse.  Projecting a 2, and a use underneath.

5. Get Stormy (8/5)  Agree with JB’s implication that she is vulnerable, and at the odds will bet her to bounce.  Could obviously win, but will let her beat me.  Will use lightly at the back-end of tri’s as a small bounce could still get her a piece, and would hate to have two longshots in the first two slots and miss a payday on her account.  Projecting a 3.

6. Awesometank (8-1) First race in North America (and with Lasix) was good, but in line with what I’ve typically seen for the euros (1-2 points better with Lasix and faster pace) so I don’t expect him to bounce, and could actually move forward 2nd time in NA.  Should be forwardly placed, so thinking a decent trip.  Expecting her to run a 2-3, which, at the weights would be 0-1.  My key.

7. Raging Bull (3-1)  Very strong contender â€" Chad, fastest last fig, decent rest, etc…   I don’t love the running style and potential for being wide.  No reason to think he won’t run a 0 again.

8. American Guru (30-1) Could definitely make a case that he is circling back to his top, which would make him very strong here.  Would have liked to have seen a little better in his last two, and don’t love the low % trainer.  Big overlay at anything close to those odds.  Tough call, but thinking 1.5-3, which would be ~.5-2 at the weights.

9. Made You Look (12-1)  CB’s other entry.  I don’t expect him to move forward, but not impossible.  Thinking a 2 is most likely, which would be ~1 at the weights.  Has some tactical speed so may be able to work out a trip.

10. Emmaus (20-1)  I don’t see him improving, and would expect a 3.5-4, which at the weights would be ~2.5-3.  Tough to take from the far outside.

11. Admiralty Pier (30-1) Another that you could argue is circling back to his top.  I don’t love this pattern, especially from the far outside, and the low % trainer doesn’t add confidence.  Thinking a pair of his list, or slight bounce, is more likely, so a 3.75-5, which equates to ~2.75-4.  Maybe a slight use underneath.
 
Prior to any scratches, will be constructing bets as follows:
Exactas and Tris:
Heavy on the 6,7 in the top two spots, lighter on the 8 and 9.
Using the 2,4,5,11 in Tri’s only, mostly in the third position.

[Socalman3]

Agree with all that this is a chewy complex race.

Looking at the figures, these horses are generally pretty close and figure to run close to each other.  For the record, I am playing the pick 4 and hitting the ALL button on the race.

El Tormenta -- Not for me today.  Could he be a part of the Super, yes, will i have him if he wins in the pick 4, yes.  BUT, this horse just seems like he cannot break through his usual 3.5.  Plus, he often takes up and it would seem to me he is likely to take up again today.  He wasnt anything special as a 3yo and it seems like his 4yo improvement is already there and if anything he is at risk of tailing off.

Lucullan -- very hard sheet to read, but lean away.  A lot of slow pace races make reading the sheet harder.  This does not figure to be a slow pace race.  hard to say if he is ouchy, or a horse that had one campaign, took a break and this is third off the layoff.  Don\'t love him, but don\'t hate him.

Silent Poet-- like this guy a lot.  Take careful note of when he first time got lasix.  Since he has gotten lasix, he is undefeated on the Woodbine turf including a G2 at 7 furlongs which i like as a prep for a one turn mile.  Third back from a layoff, last out was first time breaking through 3yo top.  The only issue is spacing.  I would be in love with this horse if the race were 2 weeks from now.  Is the 3 weeks too soon, could be, but not automatically so.  If this horse is 15-1, he is a phenomenal price.

Synchrony -- throw out at your peril.  Reliable as clockwork.  Will run his 2 and has a jockey that will get every ounce out of it. Prep race was perfect.  Only problem is that this race is a G1 and there are horses in here that can easily pop figures better than a 2 and if not squandered, this guy can\'t beat them.  Cannot see him missing out on the super, though.

Got Stormy -- a lot written about her being vulnerable.  I will join that choir, but explain why.  It is not running two consecutive 1s in a short period of time. It is because both those races have unique features that inappropriate flatter her apparent ease and run away with them.  Both had phenomenal pace set ups for her.  The first was a restricted filly and mare race that is an incredibly weak race and winning it by 4 is not anything special.  The 4stardave was obviosuly a tough race, but it was crazy pace wise and she was the beneficiary.  I am suggesting that she is just not going to get the conditions she got when she ran the only figures that make her competitive.  Today she needs to try a new configuration for the first time and doesnt figure to have the easy set up.  High weight. Obviously she could surprise, but not with my money...she is just another horse in this one.

Awesometank really hard sheet to read.  One american figure first lasix with weird pace situation.  She could bounce.  If she pairs, with the light weight, she is very competitive.  Am not tossing her, but would not key her.

Raging Bullwish this horse wasnt in the race.  His last fig was pace aided, but he also had license to run that well.  Worked down to a good fig end of 3yo year, fig progression as a 4 yo suggests he is properly developing/improving.  The knock on him is that he comes from behind so likely to have trouble or squander effort.  Also, he hasnt won yet in unrestricted company.  All of his wins were against 3yos only.  All of this is why I am feeling comfortable to hit the all button in this race, but also nervous the the Super might not be as rich as it could be.  If Synchrony and him definitely need to hit the super...it could still pay something, but there are a lot of horses and there needs to be some price horses to make it pay.  

American Guruis this horse a trap? looks amazing at 30-1.  Never tried stakes company, but raced against G1 grass miler Voodoo Song giving him 4 pounds and only lost by a nose (but for that this horse would be 5 wins for 6 tries).  Only real loss was first race back from a long layoff and easy to forgive.  Second race back is weak from the figure perspective but it was an easy wire job.  If this horse gets back to his form under Jerkens, he is right there.  Third back from the layoff a charm?  Hoping he lights up the tote board -- the 64k question to be answered is whether he is the same horse as last year or not -- but you get rewarded to find out.

Made Your Look ouchy horse -- only had a three effort campaign as a 4yo and trying his third effort as a 5yo.  Not inclined to think this is a good set up for a new top.  Figs are good enough for him to be close, but looking elsewhere.

Emmausdid not take to first lasix last out.  30years ago, second time lasix was a massively rewarding angle.  Lasix doesnt always take first time out.  this horse\'s 3yo and 4yo figs without lasix are excellent.  Second time lasix and he could improve right into the picture here.

Admiralty Pierthank god for the all button. This is one figure horse.  That buried figure at Tampa is obviously dangerous and this does look like a place he could fire.  However, that fig is not supported by the rest of this guy\'s sheet and it could easily end up being an isolated figure.

Summary -- loving the all button for the first leg of the pick 4.  Got Stormy has the obvious issues discussed.  Raging Bull as second choice, while very strong, hasnt beaten older horses yet in his career and this is a tough spot to start. Synchrony always fires, but doesnt \"go to 11\" so somebody else could beat him. American Guru at 30-1 is the obvious light up the tote board candidate -- but Silent Poet and Emmaus also have license.  Really want to play the super here, but hard because it is hard to see Raging Bull and Synchrony out.  Maybe try something with those two plus the longs mentioned here.

Good luck all.

[Bet Twice]

I’m curious how folks would bet this race given my analysis.  Assume the handicapping is spot on, how would you bet it vertically?

A horse=. 6,7
B horse= 8,9
C horse = 2,4,5,11

I struggle between spreading deeply to cover every possibility vs. trying to nail it and risk missing.

Would be curious how others would approach it, and again assume the handicapping is accurate.  I haven’t looked at other races so won’t be betting horizontally.

[Socalman3]

Bet Twice Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I’m curious how folks would bet this race given
> my analysis.  Assume the handicapping is spot on,
> how would you bet it vertically?
>
> A horse=. 6,7
> B horse= 8,9
> C horse = 2,4,5,11
>
> I struggle between spreading deeply to cover every
> possibility vs. trying to nail it and risk
> missing.
>
> Would be curious how others would approach it, and
> again assume the handicapping is accurate.  I
> haven’t looked at other races so won’t be
> betting horizontally.

You are asking the question that I struggle with the most and particularly in this race.

Here is an idea on Trifectas based on your views:

A
A+B
A+B+C

36 bets x 3 units

A+B
A
A+B+C

36 Bets x 2 unit

A
A+B+C
A+B

36 bets x 1 unit

If a unit equals 50 cents, then the total comes out to $108.  Take note, these bets overlap. If it runs AAB, and you made those bets, you would cash for 6 bets of 50 cents each.

This is just an idea -- i totally struggle with this issue.

[Bet Twice]

Nice call, hope you cashed.

[Bet Twice]

Thanks for the response.  That’s more or less what I did, with some exactas as well.  Moot point as I had the wrong horses, but illustrates something I struggle with.  Do you go all in on your top picks or try to spread.  Guess it depends on the race, but would love to hear from others on how they would handle this’s particular scenario.

[firmturf]

I apologize for responding days later but didn\'t want my response to be about the WO Mile contenders but rather the format of the ticket you describe.

If a horse is an A I can\'t have a ticket where that selection is off the board. The entrant is an A for a reason, because I think it has a high percentage of winning or his odds are drastically over inflated. I don\'t want my A horses to run 1/2 and be light because I spread and played them to finish behind B & C horses.

A
A
B

A
B
A

A
A
C

A
C
A

[skitimber]

But this way, unless I\'m missing something, B and C identical.  Maybe add ABC?

[firmturf]

In this scenario there are two \"A\" horses so both have to hit the board. If I play an A B C then one of my A\'s is 4th or worse. (If I believe in my A horses they should hit the board - not saying they always do!)

[johnnym]

Also would you not put more $$ on your A-B tickets?

[firmturf]

Certainly. The A/A/B would be the largest ticket then A/B/A then A/A/C and so on. This is all dependent on the budget the player has for the race/wager.