Travers

TGJB,

I tend to agree with you.

I\'ve been looking forward to this race for awhile because I think Lion Heart is very vulnerable at 10F. IMHO, he also hasn\'t been nearly as good at Monmouth as some would believe. I don\'t think My Snookies Boy is anything special. LH was life and death to beat him once and had everything his own way loose on the lead the second time and still didn\'t draw off or earn a huge figure.

Second, I don\'t think Purge\'s preferred distance is likely to be 10F either. I think he\'s terrific and could easily win, but I\'d prefer him in a shorter race.

After those two, you really start fishing among horses that have their own flaws.

Either they haven\'t been running as fast against weaker competition, are coming off a mini-layoff (Birdstone), or are one run deep closers of the type that are usually underlays (Cliff\'s Edge).

All that said, I still believe that 10F is not the optimal distance for either LH or Purge and that both would have been highly vulnerable to another legit Grade 1 10F horse that was ready for a top effort and could get decent position early.      

It\'s going to take a price to get me involved, but under no circumstances will it be LH as the favorite. If I am wrong about the distance not being optimal, so be it.



Post Edited (08-27-04 18:43)

[sabowen]

Concerning jimbo66\'s analysis, does anyone else see a parallel between last year\'s Travers with the \"two fastest horses\", i.e. Strong Hope and Peace Rules, setting it up for Ten Most Wanted, and this year\'s race?  Jimbo may be right (but if it rains Lion Heart?).

[shanahan]

I have to go with more than # here...TCE is the one with something to prove, and a jockey who won\'t let the second-guessers tear him up after about Bailey being in the jocks room after the race.  TCE as a single in the pik 3.

[MO]

Based on TG figures and patterns, I think Purge is a huge bounce candidate. He bounced real hard after his 1st neg # on short rest, similar pattern applies today. However, if he pairs his last, he wins at a short price (2-1).

Lion Heart is the lone speed, and speed unchallenged invariably wins. His pairing of 2 neg #\'s shows that this horse has improved slightly since the spring, and as a 3yo, he should be improving. He\'ll be favored at about 8-5, thus no betting value on the win end.

Toss the Belmont and Birdstone is a garbage can who would be the slowest entry in the race. At 10f in the Belmont, he wasn\'t close. This (Travers) is not a 12f race.

Eddington can\'t get out of his own way. Bailey bails out for good reason.

The Cliffs Edge has paired a secondary top. I don\'t like the fact that he has not returned to his Blue Grass figure. I forsee another 0 or a slight regression. Could be on the board.

Suave is the 2nd slowest horse in the race.

Sir Shackleton appears to be the up and coming, improving horse. Nice pattern and another slight forward move puts him in the money at a nice price.

Wagering strategy: Bet Sir Shackleton to win and save with an exacta box using Lion Heart.

I\'ll have to see the post time odds, but I think Sir Shackleton and Suave will  probably be the only potentially bettable horses in the race (if you simply must get involved). Perhaps Purge is usable if he goes off the 3rd choice behind Cliff\'s Edge.

Neither deserves favoritism or even close, but IMO virtually everyone else \"with a name\" is somewhat suspect because of distance, style, or probability of firing their best shot.

I rarely bet favorites and other short priced horses, but I think it is \"borderline insane\" to take a \"suspect\" one. That\'s the quickest path to losses there is at the track.

IMO, there is no way that LH will like 10F and I doubt is the optimal distance for Purge either.

Maybe they can get it if the pace is not demanding.

Maybe they can get it on a track that favors speed.

Maybe they can get it in a field of horses that contains inferior opponents and others that have to come from the clouds against what could be a slow/average uncompetitive pace.

Maybe they can get it if some opponents are not 100% today.

However, 10F is not optimal.

IMO, if you are taking a short price there shouldn\'t be any question marks because I think it\'s virtually impossible to profit over the long haul otherwise.  

Birdstone hasn\'t been out in awhile and as far as I am concerned won the Belmont because it collapsed. I see no reason to \"want\" to bet him.

Eddington still hasn\'t show that he belongs at the top of the class and hasn\'t been inproving in a way that leads me to believe he will get there today.  

Cliff\'s Edge is a deep closer of the type that routinely gets overbet and usually  only wins when a race collapses.  

Furthermore, this is still 3YO racing. Some late blooming 3YO\'s improve sharply later in the season.

It would not shock me if either Suave or Sir Shackleton improved sharply. The others were already wound up for the spring classics. If they improve from here, it will probably be the kind of improvement that comes as a result of maturity (slow steady).

IMO, Suave and SS are more likely to explode forward.

Suave has the look of a late bloomer that wants 10F.

SS is lightly raced and has been improving sharply.  

You need a \"BIG\" price and a deep need to have action to take either, but you need to be crazy to take any of the others. :-)



Post Edited (08-28-04 15:21)

[cozzene]

Class Handicapper

No way seems a little strong; dont you think?

Cozzene

>>\"No way seems a little strong; dont you think?\"<<<

Remember, I didn\'t say he can\'t win. I said there is no way he will like 10F. :-)

When I look at his record I see a horse that had a tough time lasting for 9 furlongs let alone 10F when he got a tough trip. (San Rafael and Blue Grass)  

He didn\'t win at 10F in the Derby despite a loose lead on a track that most people viewed as speed favoring and when many contenders didn\'t even lift a hoof. Granted that was against Smarty, but it didn\'t demonstrate he wants it.

He got buried at 1 3/16 in the Preakness on a track that was a bit tiring despite being loose.

He wasn\'t drawing off from My Snookies Boy despite having everything his own way in his last.

I see no evidence from his record or his pedigree that he wants 10F. Unless Purge collapses, I think it is highly likely Purge will make a serious move in the middle of the race. Even if LH is better than Purge (which I don\'t believe), I can\'t see him beating back Purge\'s challenge and still holding everyone else safe.

As the \"favorite\", I have to go into a race like this focusing on betting against him. If he beats me, I congratulate him and tear up my tickets.

If on the other hand everyone in the world thought he couldn\'t get 10F and he want off at 8-1, then I\'d start looking for reasons to bet.

He might get loose.

Purge might bounce, not run well and not press him.

The track is carrying speed.

By the way, if \"anything\", Saratoga IS being kind to speed today.



Post Edited (08-28-04 18:03)

The odds are a little suprising to me.

I wasn\'t expecting Purge to be 5-1. IMO, that may actually bettable.

I also wasn\'t expecting SS and Suave to take much money at all. Can\'t bet to win at those prices. What did Len tout them? :-)

Maybe some exactas leaving off LH totally and using Cliff in the belly only?



Post Edited (08-28-04 18:19)

[Boscar Obarra]

 Who\'s Prados Vet?

[MO]

Glad I fell asleep.............

[cozzene]

Joe B
You were right I was wrong.

But,the victory was Pyrrhic at best.  Whitney and Zito are a combination I can do without.

Cozzene

[TGJB]

LH stopped before he went a mile-- I think it was a function of the two big efforts, not the distance. More tomorrow.

TGJB,

>>LH stopped before he went a mile-- I think it was a function of the two big efforts, not the distance. More tomorrow.>>

I understand why you think that. It fits better with your general thinking about the game and your figures for him. I will have to disagree though. Perhaps he didn\'t run a peak effort, but LH has been having a tough time beating fields of non-entities - once while running with a loose lead on a speed favoring surface at 9 furlongs at Mon. It doesn\'t get any easier than that.

Today, a quality horse hooked him, put him away, and he spit the bit and tired badly because the distance is out of range and he was against real Grade 1 horses. That\'s exactly what I said would happen. In fact, perhaps Purge didn\'t run quite as well as last time, but he too revealed his vulnerability at 10F just like I said he might.  

Horses, are not machines. So of course it is impossible to prove either of our views. But not every horse that doesn\'t run back to his recent figures bounced because of his prior efforts - especially when some people are screaming that this is great horse to bet against for a variety of reasons other than recent effort.  

I did not cash the race, but I am certain I played the race right by leaving Lion Heart out of everything and only using the Cliff\'s Edge in the belly of the exacta.

LH was not running nearly as well as the figures indicated and was facing a distance he did not want and CE has a style that rarely gets it done unless a race collapses. I just had the wrong horse on top in my attempt to cash in on the value presented.



Post Edited (08-28-04 23:06)

[derby1592]

I just wish all those efforts had caught up to Lion Heart one race sooner...

These were my comments on this board before his last start:

\"We had a discussion on this board not long ago about the grind of too-fast-too-early and the TC on Smarty Jones and I think Lion Heart is a classic example (as much so as SJ). True, he did not run in the Belmont but he had several fast 2 year-old races and 4 big efforts in a row this spring starting with the San Rafael followed by the BG, Derby and Preakness. Not to mention he appears to have some distance limitations given his breeding and running style so those last 2 spring efforts probably really took a toll given his willingness to try hard even after he is tired and beyond his best distance. I think he could fall apart at any time and is a play against from now on. He may last through the Haskell but I will take a pass on him. Keep in mind though that I was also betting against him in his last 3 races (TGJB liked him in the Derby and I did not) and he has ran well in all three..

I think My Snookie\'s Boy is the value in here. He gets the rail and a repeat of his last could win this. His last was very impressive in that he took on Lion Heart from start to finish and almost won despite that not being his normal running style.\"


Chris

[shanahan]

I am stunned that anyone played LH after the simplistic discussion, including LH being caught by TCE last April...you guys just don\'t get it with LH....he is not a distance getter...that\'s all.