Travers

[TGJB]

All you guys with strong opinions on this race are nuts, even if you cash. This is one of the most difficult races to handicap I have ever seen-- almost as tough as the Kings Bishop. I\'m going to do the turf stake as ROTW, should be up sometime tomorrow. Still hope to get to the betting strategy post at some point.

[fmazur]

What is tough about this race? One front runner (Lion Heart) sets an easy pace. One EP horse (Purge) sitting right behind LH. Three closers 3 to 6 lengths back and one deep closer (The Cliff\'s Edge) 10 to 15 back.
 
The only question to be answered is whether LH can hold off Purge. This is a two horse race and I figure Purge to take LH.


   fmazur

[TGJB]

So let\'s forget about the handicapping for a second and say you\'re right. Now all we have to do is figure out whether the favorite or second favorite will win?

They are the fastest horse in the race, and the one that (figuring saving ground) is the second fastest, so obviously both can win. But one is off a huge top, the other off a pair of negative numbers, and some of the others have very strong patterns that could yield a new top. Good luck to all-- I\'ll come up with a play for the analysis because it\'s the Travers, but it ain\'t gonna be a B+.

[fasteddie]

Unless a real value situation emerges, a bad betting race if I ever saw one! JB is right; impossible to handicap. It\'s Lion\'s to steal, but Birdstone is the real deal. Zito will have him set up for the BC Classic.

[jimbo66]

JB,

You are right in that the two \"complaint\" posts I made were criticizing the T-Graph analysis and what turned out to be your own personal analysis was \"after the fact\".  

I will try the Travers as an example of a race that will be difficult to come up with a winner, using only the T-Graph numbers, but additional handicapping angles need to be considered.

Lionheart and Purge are the two \"fastest\" horses in the race, both on T-Graph and Beyers.  But I can\'t use either horse, when I handicap the race.

I bet Lionheart heavily in the Haskell, based on the fact that he had a trip over the track, he was the speed of the race and having attended the last 20 Haskell\'s, the contender with the best early speed has won a majority, I thought RHT might have trouble shipping and running on the Monmouth surface.  Lionheart went 46.4 to the half, RHT didn\'t fire at all, and by all rights LH should have drawn off.  Instead he held Snookie\'s Boy off by a length.  Lionheart has fast numbers, but he doesn\'t want 1 1/4 miles on a \'fair\' surface.  He got 1 1/4 in the Derby in a sea of slop.  CD bettors know that when it gets real sloppy, speed holds there.  Purge has run two bad races in his life, both times on short rest.  He lost by 40 in the Belmont (as a T-Graph selection and my own bet) on 14 days rest and he got bet by about 10 by Smarty on 20 days rest.  He comes back on 20 days rest in the Travers.  Purge is also suspect to get 1 1/4 miles, based on the dam side breeding.  He got 1 1/8 around one turn in the Peter Pan and got 1 1/8 in a perfect setup where Medallist stopped on a dime.  This race the pace will be fair (LH has no slow gear), the race will have mid-pack stalkers and a closer, so he will have to be better and WANT the 1 1/4.

Birdstone broke his maiden at Saratoga, running a sharp race.  He ran well fresh as a 3-year old, then ran well off a five week layoff between the derby and belmont.  He is a smallish horse that runs better rested.  He also has tactical speed in that he can be positioned behind LH and Purge, but not 20 lengths off like The Cliff\'s Edge.  Prado has been good in money races there and I trust that Zito is doing what he thinks is best by not giving the horse a race before the Travers.  I also think the price will be fair.  Many handicappers think the Belmont was a fluke and that Birdstone is not that good.  With Purge\'s Jim Dandy and connections, he will go favored, TCE also takes money all the time and LH will be bet.  I think I get 7-2 on Birdstone.  

Eddington still hasn\'t figured it out.  Bailey gave up on the horse, I will too.  I don\'t like the way Pat Day is riding at Saratoga and don\'t think Suave is good enough.  The Cliff\'s Edge might get up for 2nd and I think Sir Shackleton has a shot to improve and win the race.  Birdstone over TCE and Sir Shackleton.

But the point was that I think the two \"fastest\" horses in the race, Purge and Lionheart are not bettable for \"other\" reasons besides their T-Graph numbers.  Neither one finishes in the exacta.

[jbelfior]

TGJB---

What\'s so special about the turf race. It\'s NOTHING TO LOSE\'s race to lose. Inside post, better and more consistent #\'s and 5 paths in from SILVER TREE.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Joe-- I\'ll be coming to a similar conclusion, but I\'m going to use more words to get there. I\'m writing it now.

Jim-- I agree with a lot of what you say, and in some cases (like the Haskell, which we did as ROTW and crushed) came to the same conclusions by using a different form of analysis. That different TG players are having wildly different opinions on this race proves my point about it being a very tough one to handicap. Thanks for posting in advance.

[jbelfior]

TGJB--

I agree with your view on the Travers. Paired tops for LH at speed favoring Monmouth....what now?

Is PURGE a better horse, more developed and now better able to bounce back off of his stellar effort in the Jim Dandy? Even his trainer says he would like a few more weeks.

Does nutcase EDDINGTON finally put it all together on Saturday and will his UNBRIDLED blood get him the trip better than the rest? Or will we all just have to wait for him to become a 4yo?

Is SIR SHACKLETON improving quickly or does his West Virginia race set him back??

Does BIRDSTONE prove his Belmont was no fluke off of a 12 week layoff?

Is TCE merely a plodder, better suited to quicker paces run at 1 1/8th? Does the starch get taken out of his late kick at 1 1/4??

Terrific, but tough race.


Good Luck,
joe B.

[cozzene]

Joe B
It is Lion Heart by daylight.

Mr Traditional Handicapper
The fastest horse wins the race.  the fastest horse is Lion Heart.

Chuckles the Clown
Where are you, and your childish stupidity \"Rion Heart\"?

Lion Heart makes it look easy and all you fellas who fret about; \"can he go the distance\", \"who will close\", \"was MTH speed favoring\".  See what is there, not what you want to see.  The winner is obvious.

Your Friend

Cozzene

[jimbo66]

Mr. Cozzene:

The fastest horse at the distance, wins the race.  

I assume you wouldn\'t bet Pico Central, Strong Hope and Speightstown against the \"slower\" distance horses at 1 1/4 miles, like Evening Attire or even Birdstone (a 3 year old).

Granted that is a more severe case than Lionheart at 1 1/4 miles.  Which race of his gives you confidence he can get 1 1/4?  The Derby?  The Preakness?  The Haskell?  You certainly can\'t be basing it on breeding.  Tale of the Cat won the King\'s Bishop.  John Forbes was smart enough by then to avoid Free House, Touch Gold, Silver Charm, etc.

[cozzene]

Jimbo my man

If the horse can go 1 1/8 and win he can go 1 1/4.  And if memory serves me right I think he was 2nd at a 1 1/14 in a minor race at a minor track against some second rate competition.

Smith cost the horse.  Bravo has a lot to prove both about himself and Lion Heart.  The outcome is not in doubt.

Just as easy as Alphabet Soup and Tikkanen were on Breeders Cup Day a long time ago.

Your Friend

Cozzene

[JR]

That\'s assuming he continues his string of 1 1/2 tops or moves forward. At some point he will regress. But I agree, it\'s not worth betting that he does.

[fasteddie]

Can anyone say Holy Bull???

[JJP]

Purge should be favored.  He\'s done the most, he\'s unbeaten when not facing Smarty Jones, he\'s in great form, loves the track and his trainer is having a great meet.  A Travers win will be a great way for Pletcher to cap off the meet.  O/U on what he will pay: $5.70.

[fmazur]

JJP

You\'re right on target. Purge should easily handle this field. I am hoping, he like Smarty was, is overlooked and I am able to get 2-1 plus. Look at his races--four for four when having a target to run at and all easy wins, while being zero for three when being on lead. Also two for two at Sar. won\'t hurt him.