Preakness

[JR]

A very competitive and bettable Preakness

Pattern wise I’m curious to hear others opinions on IMPROBABLE and WAR OF WILL. Improbable’s regression in the derby doesn’t look good on paper but Baffert has brought enough derby alumni back on two weeks rest to win this 7 times. Is this his Lookin At Lucky? As the favorite, I’ll be betting that he’s gassed after the tight spacing of races in his 3yo campaign.

WAR OF WILL is harder to gauge. His last number is a troubled trip toss and we know where he was when he was interfered with. But 2 weeks rest and a still as yet unexplained bomb at the Fairgrounds has me speculating that this horse could have issues. Not my key as the likely second choice.

From the rail out

BOURBON WAR Same question applies. What happened after the FOY? He has had plenty of time to recover from that big new top and a return to it gives him a shot. I’d still like to see this one on the turf being out of an Artie Schiller mare.

WARRIOR’S CHARGE Great line with the nice little forward move in the last, rested and a decent 2yo top. He’ll need to improve a couple of points but he should save all of the ground on the front end and he has Cox in his corner.

IMPROBABLE Defeated Derby favorite coming in off a regression. Fourth race in 8 weeks. I’m betting he’s still recovering from the negative top at Oaklawn and the tight spacing of races. Capable on his best but just one of the others on his B race.

OWENDALE Blossomed big time in the Bluegrass and looked good doing it. Rested and a trainer who clicks at 38% pairups after a new top of better than 1pt. This is 5pts. But his top is amongst the fastest in here and he’s listed at 10-1. I’ll use him in all 3 positions.

MARKET KING On paper has no business being in this race. OXBOW looked better.

ALWAYSMINING has had it pretty easy so far and this will test him but he has a great line and could go forward with him only 2pts better than his 2yo top. If he does, he has a very good chance. At 8-1 he’s my key.

SIGNALMAN has an explosive pattern that often yields a new top. He’ll need one to compete here but at 30-1 I’m using him.

BODEXPRESS I really wanted to use this one after watching him hold his own in the derby until the incident at the 5/16 pole. But, on paper, it looks like they’re trying to do too much with this horse in too short of a period of time after a troubled but, none the less taxing effort in the derby. I’m leaving him out.

EVERFAST On paper he looks misplaced in this race. No number strength. A messy pattern. Nothing for me to like. Especially the memory he brings back of FIRST DUDE, Roman’s other bomb that ruined me in this race.

LAUGHING FOX comes in with a somewhat similar pattern to COUNTRY HOUSE but lacking the 2yo foundation. He could move forward again and Asmussen doesn’t come to Pimlico without a purpose. 20-1 looks pretty enticing.

ANOTHERTWISTAFATE I’m not as excited about this horse as others seem to be but he does have 2 wins at 1 1/8 miles. Coming in off paired tops but they’re not fast and 6-1 is short. I’ll play against him and not lose any sleep over it.

WIN WIN WIN has run some fast sprints but has gotten slower around two turns. My bet is his future is in shorter races. They are adding blinkers which could mean they want him closer to the pace. Drawn wide. I’m leaving him off.

[Silver Charm]

Nice job on your run down. I haven\'t looked at anything yet so I cant offer much. 4th race in 9 weeks for Inprobable. 3rd in 5 and 4th different jockey in a row. Something is up there. War of Will could he tough and a decent price. If he wins the Derby controversy magnifies

[JR]

It’s a good card. I haven’t seen the ML for the undercard stakes but there are a couple of live local horses in them that will probably be fair prices.

[sekrah]

Owendale had the most visually impressive Derby prep race of the season, IMO.  What he did to that field at those fractions at that distance was a bit bonkers.

[Silver Charm]

I thinks its a solid day to put money into the Pools but not necessarily great. How many Grade One Winners or prospective Grade One winners are there running? But make no mistake as you guys stated this are good field and competitive races.

I am curious what the drug policies are for the day? Perhaps TGJB can weight in. There have plenty of Rudy shippers, Chad shippers come in and run over the top of them. Cloud Computing never won another race. If there is little to none then buyer beware....

[Mike C]

I agree with you on Alwaysmining. Great looking line, already almost fast enough, and only small move from 2 year old  top, could move forward again. Also agree on Improbable, might think differently if he were going to have some value, but given the multiple efforts in a short time, I will gladly look to beat him.
Owendale\'s last was a pretty big jump, but his line looks solid, and he has 5 weeks rest.The last number is probably good enough to win if he can get a good trip.
Finally I like Warriors charge, he may have the lead and the rail, and if he improves at all he could also be tough.

[atakante]

They say look at Derby runners in the Preakness, but not this year.  I\'m against all.  Figures to be a fast pace so I like what IMO is the best closer: Owendale.  He\'s my key.

[TempletonPeck]

JR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WAR OF WILL is harder to gauge. His last number is
> a troubled trip toss and we know where he was when
> he was interfered with. But 2 weeks rest and a
> still as yet unexplained bomb at the Fairgrounds
> has me speculating that this horse could have
> issues. Not my key as the likely second choice.

Isn\'t his lost action/sprain from the first jumps of the fairgrounds race known/discussed?

[JR]

Unknown to me. Source?

[Molesap]

From Brisnet on March 24th....

\"Trainer Mark Casse was upbeat Sunday about the Kentucky Derby (G1) status of Saturday’s beaten Louisiana Derby (G2) favorite War of Will, who never factored after taking a few awkward strides in the initial stages.

The 4-5 choice following victories in the first two Fair Grounds preps, the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2), War of Will had his hind end slip underneath him as he was trying to propel forward. His usual speed was nowhere to be found in consequence, and he wound up a distant ninth, by far the worst loss of his career.

Reporting that War of Will was “significantly off” Saturday evening, Casse surmised that it was likely a muscle strain. At that time it was premature to comment on his Kentucky Derby hopes.\"

Look at the video of the Louisiana Derby - around 10 seconds in War of Will (#6 horse) \"loses his hind end\" right after the start.

2019 Louisiana Derby

[Tavasco]

A quick look a the group you expect Owendale to join.

2017 Cloud Computing
Cloud Computing was a late starter in so much as he didn\'t race as a 2 y/o. He burst onto the scene at Aqu as a first time winner in Feb. He followed that effort with competitive outings in the Gotham and Wood. Losing to luminaries J Boys Echo and Irish war cry. CC went off @ 12/1 in his Preakness win. The race favorite Always Dreaming\'s flop didn\'t surprise all that many and under achieving Classic Empire (the 2/1 2nd choice) once again just could not close the deal. CC could be characterized as the best of the rest. I don\'t remember the TG analysis but I remember CC being a popular winner on this board. A year somewhat similar to this year in that two of the Ky Derby refugees are well regarded by many yet with doubts? White hot trainer Chad Brown added to CC\'s attraction.

Noteworthy - Owendale has run run three good races two of those he ran with the pacesetter. His Riesen Star bounce followed  and the Lexington tactic of taking back may have been key as Atakante surmises.

2009 Rachel Alexandra
Surprise KY Derby winner Mine That Bird was carrying the flag for the KY derby contingent in 2009 along with Baffert\'s Pioneer Of the Nile. They were 2nd and third choices at about 6/1 to 9/5 favorite RA. The filly ran them off their feet with solid fractions. Pretty sure a case of best horse won.

2006 Bernardini
A freakish year. Bernardini was the beast and as yet unrealized at post time. Barbaro was the shining star and 1/2 favorite. In hindsight, an overlay of a life time Bernardini was 12/1 like Cloud Computing for the superstitious. Barbaro was a trajedy. Footnote - Trombetta ran 2nd with Sweetsouthernsaint.

2000 Red Bullet
Red Bullet is a curious one to me. He beat what was arguably a good field. Starting with 3/10 favorite Fusaichi Pegasus along with Impeachment, Captain Steve, Snuck In, High Yield and Hal\'s Hope. Red Bullet was the 6/1 second choice. Owned by Stronach, trained by Orseno and ridden by Prado. An obvious play against an odds on favorite. The colt had a banner 1st half of his 3 y/o season before taking off a year to come back the next year at SAR for an abbreviated 4 y/o season. A solid if not so durable horse.

2019 Owendale
From a projected historical perspective I would associate Owendale most closely with Cloud Computing. A horse who may run his best in a big race this weekend. Also with a m/l of 10/1 and a potential to get near 12/1 a must play for my superstitious friends.

Subjectively Owendale may take back vs a fast pace and pair up or even improve without losing much ground and consequently be a key contender. Or, he may attempt to go with the front runners? What effect would that have. Was the Lexington pace fast? or slowish?

Objectively he has had a lot of development, he\'s coming back off a new top without a lot of rest. Geroux and Cox are both capable as is the colt on paper. Will a muddy track increase bounce probability?

Regarding trainer Trombetta I just need to keep repeating his trainee this year Win Win Win has a chance, has a chance, has a chance, as if repetitive assertions have any bearing in the real world.

[JR]

I see that. Looked like Zion in the Carolina game. Enough of an excuse for me but he still hasn’t cracked a 1 and doing on 2 weeks rest seems like a lot to ask.

[T Severini]

JR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A very competitive and bettable Preakness
>
> Pattern wise I’m curious to hear others opinions
> on IMPROBABLE and WAR OF WILL. Improbable’s
> regression in the derby doesn’t look good on
> paper but Baffert has brought enough derby alumni
> back on two weeks rest to win this 7 times. Is
> this his Lookin At Lucky? As the favorite, I’ll
> be betting that he’s gassed after the tight
> spacing of races in his 3yo campaign.
>
> WAR OF WILL is harder to gauge. His last number is
> a troubled trip toss and we know where he was when
> he was interfered with. But 2 weeks rest and a
> still as yet unexplained bomb at the Fairgrounds
> has me speculating that this horse could have
> issues. Not my key as the likely second choice.
>
> From the rail out
>
> BOURBON WAR Same question applies. What happened
> after the FOY? He has had plenty of time to
> recover from that big new top and a return to it
> gives him a shot. I’d still like to see this one
> on the turf being out of an Artie Schiller mare.
>
> WARRIOR’S CHARGE Great line with the nice little
> forward move in the last, rested and a decent 2yo
> top. He’ll need to improve a couple of points
> but he should save all of the ground on the front
> end and he has Cox in his corner.
>
> IMPROBABLE Defeated Derby favorite coming in off a
> regression. Fourth race in 8 weeks. I’m betting
> he’s still recovering from the negative top at
> Oaklawn and the tight spacing of races. Capable on
> his best but just one of the others on his B
> race.
>
> OWENDALE Blossomed big time in the Bluegrass and
> looked good doing it. Rested and a trainer who
> clicks at 38% pairups after a new top of better
> than 1pt. This is 5pts. But his top is amongst the
> fastest in here and he’s listed at 10-1. I’ll
> use him in all 3 positions.
>
> MARKET KING On paper has no business being in this
> race. OXBOW looked better.
>
> ALWAYSMINING has had it pretty easy so far and
> this will test him but he has a great line and
> could go forward with him only 2pts better than
> his 2yo top. If he does, he has a very good
> chance. At 8-1 he’s my key.
>
> SIGNALMAN has an explosive pattern that often
> yields a new top. He’ll need one to compete here
> but at 30-1 I’m using him.
>
> BODEXPRESS I really wanted to use this one after
> watching him hold his own in the derby until the
> incident at the 5/16 pole. But, on paper, it looks
> like they’re trying to do too much with this
> horse in too short of a period of time after a
> troubled but, none the less taxing effort in the
> derby. I’m leaving him out.
>
> EVERFAST On paper he looks misplaced in this race.
> No number strength. A messy pattern. Nothing for
> me to like. Especially the memory he brings back
> of FIRST DUDE, Roman’s other bomb that ruined me
> in this race.
>
> LAUGHING FOX comes in with a somewhat similar
> pattern to COUNTRY HOUSE but lacking the 2yo
> foundation. He could move forward again and
> Asmussen doesn’t come to Pimlico without a
> purpose. 20-1 looks pretty enticing.
>
> ANOTHERTWISTAFATE I’m not as excited about this
> horse as others seem to be but he does have 2 wins
> at 1 1/8 miles. Coming in off paired tops but
> they’re not fast and 6-1 is short. I’ll play
> against him and not lose any sleep over it.
>
> WIN WIN WIN has run some fast sprints but has
> gotten slower around two turns. My bet is his
> future is in shorter races. They are adding
> blinkers which could mean they want him closer to
> the pace. Drawn wide. I’m leaving him off.


Hidden Nearco
Native Nearco

[JR]

Not sure what your point is.