Anothertwistoffate

[boardedup]

Early thoughts on this guy?  Looked great out in SF over the winter, ran huge in the Sundland Derby, didn’t have the best trip getting boxed in during the middle stages of the Lexington, but still had his chance and seemed to flatten out late? Looked different in the stretch than his previous 3-4 races for sure.

More time between starts this time, any thoughts on a forward move coming in Baltimore?

 The $150,000 dropped to enter Warriors Charge is interesting to, it almost seems like they think they can do what MS has been doing, go to the lead, slow it down and kick home. These two are interesting to me at first glance, especially with the lack of apparent pace signed on to date.  This really could be a decent betting race, it all depends on Improbable of course...

[ajkreider]

Alwaysmining is the one who reminds me most, style-wise, of Maximum Security.  He will be a major overlay in here, methinks.

[jbelfior]

Talented colt. Concerned with the quick comeback in the Lexington, off the effort in the Sunland race, to try to get in the Derby. Then no works for 21 days.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[hellersorr]

Alwaysmining is the hometown (well, home-state) hero and will take a lot of action for that reason.  I imagine there will also be a fair amount of coverage of \"the small stable, plucky, female trainer taking on Big Bad Bob Baffert\" angle.

[big18741]

Nothing ran good Lexington day on the inside part of the track.
Anothertwistoffate was down on the rail the length of the stretch.

[jbelfior]

You\'re right. Perhaps it took its toll-no works for 21 days after.

The other question is whether he\'s on this level. I would look for double digits to find out.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[big18741]

Paired up the Sunland race with three weeks rest on what wasn\'t the best part of the track.

Gets five weeks with a couple of poly works coming into it.

I\'d be surprised if he\'s shorter than 10-1 off a couple of seconds to Owendale and Cutting Humor.

He\'s never gone back and in a race that yields one or two new tops per year looks as good as any for a move up.Signalman is another one but he comes in slower with a little less pedigree IMO.

I know what Bourbon War and the Derby horses look like on paper.
Owendale jumped up in the Lexington going off Anothertwist\'s figure there

Interested to see the figures on the Laurel horse and Warrior\'s Reward.

[jbelfior]

All good points about him. When I went through the Archives, I did not see much success with the Keenland to Pimlico angle.

Perhaps that changes this year with few Derby runners returning.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[boardedup]

Me to

[Tavasco]

A cursory look back at previous Preakness winners in the modern age results in the following. Please excuse any I got wrong.

Preakness Winners
Those which didn\'t run in the Derby
2017 Cloud Computing
2009 Rachel Alexandra
2006 Bernardini
2000 Red Bullet
1983 Disputed Testimony
?

I took a look back because I read somewhere that 80% of the Preakness winners came from the Kentucky Derby fields in some recent period of time (? this century).

[JR]

That stat might be less relevant this year with the top 3 finishers passing the race.

My scan of the archives left me thinking that horses who ran well in the derby (close to their top) ran well in the Preakness. Horses who came in rested and with good patterns also ran back to their top figures. That makes Alwaysmining a very legitimate contender. A key for me at 8-1.

[Molesap]

Some possibly relevant trends:

In that last 56 Preakness runnings, horses that ran in the Derby accounted for slightly less than half of the entrants (49.1%), yet accounted for 82.1% of the wins and 76.8% of the exacta finishes. That means that horses that had not run in the Derby before the Preakness accounted for only 17.9% of the winners, yet were over 50% of the horses that entered. In terms of the exacta, these horses represented 23.2% of the exacta finishes. So approximately a little less than one-fourth of the time does a non Derby horse finish in the Preakness exacta â€" so basically, once every two years.

Winners of the Preakness since 2000 â€" Last Race:
Kentucky Derby â€" 15
Wood Memorial â€" 3
Kentucky Oaks â€" 1

Superfecta finishers in the Preakness since 2000 â€" Last Race:
Kentucky Derby â€" 50
Aqueduct â€" 9
Keeneland â€" 8
Churchill Downs (not Derby) â€" 4
Pimlico â€" 2
Oaklawn Park â€" 1
Santa Anita â€" 1
Hawthorne â€" 1

[Tavasco]

Thanks for your effort Molesap. I can now key #13 Win Win Win with some degree of confidence knowing he is in a smallish group of contenders (that you identified) and at a current price (15/1) that should remain healthy.

Considering he\'s capable of throwing a top effort when it\'s not expected with a pattern that could produce a good or ho hum performance. His 10th in the Derby was better than I thought he\'d do.

Lastly he\'s the next best thing to Japanese bred, his sire (Hat Trick) was.

Wasabi!

[boardedup]

I was influenced by the staggering success of KY Derby runners in the Preakness myself.  It was fresh in my mind when I foolishly went against JB and most of the board taking a strong (openly aggressive) stance AGAINST Cloud Computing.  One of the poorest handicapping decisions I’ve made.

Historical data is certainly nice and should be used, but never forget each entry is their own entity, individual of everyone else who’s ran before. If you have a strong opinion on a non derby starter, I wouldn’t let historical data take you off of them.

This year w/ the absence of the first 4 across the line in the derby running back and the form & figs of a few of the new shooters it should be interesting for sure..

[big18741]

On figures,pattern and timing I keep coming back to Signalman and Anothertwist as
the jump up possibilities here.No backwards moves for either one and good rest coming in.

What the board looks like will determine if I throw away money on one or both.

The Laurel iron horse looks good on paper but he\'s been in training for well over a year without a break.Seeing him as more of a pair up at best.