Derby Week

[sekrah_]

CoH too slow and an okay, not great pattern for a top big enough to win. Reacted poorly to left handed whip in Fla Derby.   Working out just okay to my eye.

[johnnym]

I suspect your Correct

[JimP]

I wasn’t aware that there was a right or wrong lead for the break. What’s the theory there?

[mjellish]

Watch him, he is on his wrong lead down the stretch heading to first turn in SA Derby.  Theory is that if a horse is on the wrong lead it\'s either because they don\'t know better or have some type of issue.  Knowing he never had lead problems at 2 I am thinking it is the later.

[jbelfior]

MJ:
Agree with your Tacitus assessment. As for BMS, I think the La Derby was as good a race as any of the preps.
What is interesting is that Spinoff may end up three times the price as both WOW and BMS.

Improbable looks to be having similar issues as GW-on the wrong lead late in last two. Collected didn\'t get a mile and a quarter until he was older, but agree that Improbable the better Baffert.

No love out there for Vekoma despite having the best internal numbers and a Derby winning TG number as a 2yo. Terrific betting race for sure.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[johnnym]

Regarding the LA Derby the race is what it is.
However when the favorite is done less than 25 yards out of the gate I would have to think that changes the whole profile of the race.
Especially since WOW is on the pace type.
By My Standards still has not run as fast as WOW
Will be approx the same price and is not as regally bred.
Throw another monkey in the wrench both are training lights out (Like who isn’t)?
Two horse from the LA Derby.
Yet wait there’s more
Spinoff; He lost to a horse that was on his home track definitely more fit and Spinoff ran the faster #. He will for sure be higher odds then the above two. Coming in third race of the lay-off and another forward move certainly puts him in the conversation.

I feel he will be more forward placed than By My Standards,in a race that the pace may be moderate.
Interesting race for sure.
Love the think tank this time of year.

[JimP]

I understand about the lead in the stretch, but you said he also broke on the wrong lead. I was just asking what that meant. I’m not familiar with right and wrong leads at the break.

[mjellish]

He broke out of the gate on his wrong lead and ran down the stretch that way headed into the first turn of the race.  So the first 1/4 mile.  Watch the replay.

[JimP]

I’m not sure if I’m not making my question clear or you’re just intentionally avoiding it. But either way, I give up.

[mjellish]

Dude, I answered your question twice.  In the SA Derby the horse broke out of the gate on his wrong lead and ran down the stretch into the first turn that way.  They usually break out of the gate and then run down the stretch on the correct lead.  

He also ran on his wrong lead in the Rebel.  

He did not do this at the age of two.  So I think there could be a physical issue pending as I view this as a negative.  Meaning I don\'t think he mentally just decided to forget how to run on the correct lead.  

If you need more than that or if that doesn\'t make sense I don\'t know what more to say.

[JimP]

I don’t either. I give up.

[johnnym]

Jim:
What lead is a horse suppose to run on in the straights?
What lead is a horse suppose to run on in the turns?
There lays your answers.

[hellersorr]

Crikies.  

All Jim is saying - I think - is that he never heard a horse is supposed to be on his correct lead the instant the gate opens.  I must confess I never heard that, either.  (But then there\'s a whole lot of stuff I\'ve never heard.)

[Furious Pete]

It\'s like \"got up on the wrong side of the bed\".

[mjellish]

You guys are obtuse.  I am saying the horse broke, and then stayed on his wrong lead all the way down the stretch heading into the first turn.  I could care less if a horse breaks with a right  lead or left lead out of the gate.  But they are supposed to get out of the gate and then RUN DOWN THE STRETCH ON THE CORRECT LEAD.  They are also supposed to run around the turns on their left lead and run down the straightaways on the right lead.  This horse ran down the straight away on his left lead in his last two races.

This is basic stuff.  

Sorry I even mentioned it.

Guess it\'s Derby Week around here.