Derby Week

[FrankD.]

I guess it’s not officially Derby Week until tomorrow but I wanted to get a jump on things before the real wack jobs surface......

There has been some great handicapping discussion, sheet theory and historical trends brought up here of late. Keep it going, a pleasant reminder of what this board used to be about.

The main debate is no doubt whether Omaha Beach will bounce or not? Normally a big jump like this in the final prep does not bode well.

I’ve been against OB since before the Rebel. IMHO stakes horses with very few exceptions don’t take 5 tries to break their maiden. Yeah I know it was on the grass, he is a War Front, they are faster green than brown. I thought he had a dream trip in the Rebel and Improbable was a bit short in the Arkansas Derby.

All that said OB has been nothing but ultra impressive in his last 3 and in the morning of late. Has he finally figured it out, is just a late bloomer, was his last too much too soon? One can certainly pay to find out @ 9/2 ish in a wide open Derby with a lot of early pace.

I don’t subscribe to him bouncing off the Ark Derby and wish I could take credit for a pretty obvious visual from that day. Before I saw his number and the contenders sheets a former, obnoxious poster pointed it out to me in an email.
It has been mentioned here by a few that the outside paths were no doubt the place to be that day in Hot Springs. The figure is ground loaded (Improbable’s as well) but with the ground loss not only being  intentional but highly favorable that day can you really hold it against him? From a TG perspective that my friends is the million dollar question?

Another friend who makes his own Oaklawn figures and has followed that circuit closely for years emphatically states that ground loss doesn’t seem to matter at Oaklawn nearly as much as other tracks. I’m not well versed in Hot Springs 101 but It is noticeable that swooping the group is fairly common there on non-conveyer belt days. I’ve attributed a lot of it to non-competitive heats and a Cowboy 🤠 jock colony? All food for thought.

I’ll not be using OB in either of the top 2 spots, obviously he cannot be tossed out but I’ll play him defensively only in the 3rd and 4th spots. My triple and super play will be nominal, I’ll include some bombs that could possibly sneak into the bottom of ticket by running late.

My main focus and of course it’s draw and weather dependent will be in the exacta pool. Leaving out OB, including the 3 Baffert’s and Tacitus in a 4 horse exacta box. The absence of a solid favorite, the spread of 5,6/1 to 12/1 ish with these 4 make for a 2 zero number, possibly a bit shorter but not much. I’m not sure what to do with Roadster? Tacitus & the Wood non factor for a long time, plus a lot of development has me leaning more to the 2nd spot than top. If you ever have looked at a TG sheet you cannot not include Game Winner, it’s pretty and the horse seems to always show up. Improbable is the value for me. He is a length & neck from being undefeated and will be double digit odds, at 3X the price of the favorite and higher in the exacta pool, I’ll pay to find out.....
GW & Improbable will probably be keyed and a few others will be included in the 2nd spot.

It’s no doubt the best betting Derby in a few years. I don’t know about a life changing score but there are some shekels on the table for the taking 😎

Good luck and Happy Derby Week to all,

Frank D.

[jbelfior]

Nice post Frank to kick off Derby week. Having the winner just the icing on the cake to a fun week. This is our time...enjoy everyone.

Interesting point about wide moves at Oaklawn. Something I have noticed for years (similar to Parx). Not sure what the data indicates there but I do know that post 10 is 6 for 110 at the Fair Grounds. ðŸ¤"

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Chas04]

Happy Derby week Frank. Thanks for the kickoff. All good stuff. Nowhere else id rather be. My biggest issue past few years has been missing all the undercard stakes. Like terribly. Will be looking at all Kee runners to start & a Filly from Carlos Martin from NY if she comes.

[jbelfior]

The fun really starting up this morning as Tacitus, Country House, and Win Win Win all hooked up in their workouts making for an interesting finish. I\'m no workout expert but it appeared that WWW got the better of them.

Code of Honor a \"blazing\" :46 4/5. ATM machines going to be busy today.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

Frank I agree with the comment there seems to be more early pace than usual. Ands its quality is it not? Omaha (Peyton Mannings horse), Maximum, Vekomi and throw in War of Will. These runners won most of the Big Preps.

Will we see a crazy early pace like Songandaprayer or Palice Malice? Doubt it But people will begin going after each other a little earlier than they usually like. If there is jock with enough horse, and a bad break free trip someone can come late and nail this thing. Not many dirt races beyond mile and an eighth left these days. Mostly on grass. Will be interesting

[johnnym]

Always good to hear from one of the better whack jobs on the board 😎
GL to ya
My 2 Cents?
To much faith in Mandella,he has something and he knows it.
Did OB fry Improbable in the Ark Derby? Like justify did to Bolt last year.
Is it me or does Baffert horse’s break a bit slow this year? Yes I saw Roadsters gate work.
Any chance can Game Winner can be better than 4W?
WOW odds will drop
Max Security odds will go up
Tactitus is a Bull and will go where he wants to go.
Tax SHHHHH!
I feel pretty good that your ex lies in hear some place and possibly the tri as well.
Which leaves me a question I keep going back to.
Is this race as really wide open as they are saying it is?
Waiting on draw and final weather.
Right know I’m in the OB camp
Some reason greed always gets the best of me in this race and I will be going after the tri and super.
Leaving more in the EX pool for Frank.
Good Luck Fellas

[sekrah_]

Concur with much of this.

Didn\'t think Imp was moving real well over the slop in Ark D and still got within a length of Beach on pure talent.  He looked loaded for bear this morning.  Total monster.  Beach is a good horse but like you said, 9/2 in a field like this, no way. He\'s not distinguished himself from 4-5 other major contenders.

Was not impressed with Tac this morning. He was nudged a couple times in the lane and didn\'t look real interested.

BMS has that classic forward moving line that often hits the board, like Looking at Lee and Commanding Curve and he looked good this morning. Good bet for a top. Must use underneath.

WoW is a toss for me.  Cannot count on a top after a soft tissue sprain less than two months ago.

WWW was into the bit this morning. Looks like a good bet to pair that January top, another must use underneath, if he draws well, saves all the ground, and the seas part for him at the right moment, look out.  Another price use for me.

Thought CoH looked okay, but not the kind of work before ripping off a 3+ pt new top that is needed.

GW a must use near the top, BB has probably been nursing him along this spring.


A few others I\'m still molding my opinions on...

[Fairmount1]

Frank,

I am Mifftified about who the obnoxious poster you mention might be.  I\'ll keep thinking on that one.

In other news, the Oracle of Omaha just announced a few hours ago that he is betting on Dubai with his Berkshire Hathaway brand by opening an office there.  Guess he wants Plus Que or the Magician if he were betting on the derby instead of Omaha Beach.  

At the moment, weather looks pretty good for Fri and Sat.  Just like last year though, a storm predicted for Monday started creeping into the Sunday forecast and eventually dumped rain on me ALL day on the first Sat of May.  As wrongly said, let\'s hope it stays dry for both days.

I spoke to Mandella and his wife who both were at Oaklawn for Ark Derby.  I saw them in the paddock area with Omaha Beach schooling the day before the Ark Derby while a race was running.  Their confidence was so obvious and the horse looked like a beast to my untrained eye.  You mentioned horses that take a while to break their maiden aren\'t usually stakes horses.  I would point out that patient trainers are more likely to have this happen then say a Baffert.  And forgive Omaha Beach a little bit as on debut, he had to listen to Ice Cube as well as the shooting at Del Mar last summer (another racing black eye).  Appropriately enough, More Ice was the winner of that race.  Seriously though, I think comparing Mandella and Shug as trainers as far as being patient is a fair comparison.  Orb broke his maiden in his 4th start.  He then rattled off four more victories in a row culminating in the Derby.  It can be done on this stage.  

As for the critical question, does OB bounce?  The draw matters.  And I would also point out he beat 2 Baffert\'s in Ark that were 8+ and 5+ Lengths clear of 3rd in the Rebel and Ark Derby.  If OB had not been in those races, my guess is the Baffert\'s would be praised as the next TC winning possibilities.  

Last topic here.  Interesting you see a fast pace.  Almost all the so-called experts say it will not be a fast pace.  This is the $500k question if OB bouncing is the million dollar question.  Who leads when they enter the backstretch?  If someone can accurately predict that I\'d love to hear it.  My guess is OB sits just off whomever goes until they enter the backstretch and he tries to take over right away on the backside.  Spinoff?  Max Security if no one else goes?

[Chas04]

Wack job? That towards me? If so anytime anyplace you degenerate!

[FrankD.]

Fairmount, Fairmount, Fairmount,

The protege of Richie 🐝 and MOi. As I often tell Richie, Fairmount is the son he never wanted..... 😎

Good thing I love you, a 50/50 proposition on the former obnoxious poster and you called heads, it came up tails. By the way calling someone a Clueless Clown on the east coast is far from obnoxious. It’s just a not so politically correct way of saying Sir, you lack the educational foundation and life’s experience to debate this issue with me.

[johnnym]

I’ve worn that hat as well

[Chas04]

Touché

[mjellish]

Some good points here Frank.

Tough to say whether Omaha Beach bounces or not.  He\'s not acting like it so far, but we will see how he comes out of his work.  I think he\'s a deserving favorite, but it is tough to see him moving forward in this spot.

The horse I plan to play against is Maximum Security.  I\'m of the opinion that he\'s had 4 races and had it all his own way in every one of them.  He\'s not going to get that here, and I hope he folds under pressure.

I\'m also not as high on Tacitus as most others seem to be.  To my eye he is more of a grinder, Belmont type of horse.  

I don\'t like how Game Winner has been running on his wrong lead lately.  He even broke on his wrong lead.  He didn\'t do that at 2, so I see it as a negative and perhaps an indication that there is some type of physical issue brewing.  He\'s certainly a trier and lays his body down every race.  I like Improbable the best of the Bafferts.  Lot of talk about him being by a City Zip, but Collected was a City Zip and got 10 panels.  Lots of stamina influences on the Dam side of the pedigree too.

Curious to see what By My Standards and War of Will do in this race.  I really like how By My Standards has been acting lately, and I think his LA Derby was a little better than it looks on TG.  I also have his maiden faster.  I also really like he wasn\'t afraid to shift inside, shoot through a gap and split horses.  He\'s a neat colt, just not sure how much I like a Goldencents to get 10 panels so it\'s a little tough to see him winning.  War of Will has every right to bounce back from his LA Derby Debacle, and he was pretty fast heading into that race.

Tax is an interesting gelding too.  Nice claim by Gargan.  He\'s had 3 stakes races at 1 1/8 and hit the board in every one of them.  I don\'t see him as a strong win candidate but he could hit the board at decent odds.

A very, very good betting race IMO.  

Give my regards to Jimbo.

Looking forward to the draw.

[Fairmount1]

Thanks for your thoughts MJ.

A few comments and questions for the board.

I also thought of the Improbable comparison to Collected, a City Zip that got the 1 1/4 miles for Baffert.  But what do you make of the Blinkers On and Blinkers Off games being played in Ark Derby and now Ky Derby with Improbable?

On the War of Will and Omaha Beach front (pun intended), does War Front sway you one way or another for his progeny winning at 1 1/4 miles?  Average winning distance is 7.42f.  (Tapit 7.62f, Candy Ride 7.08f, Lookin at Lucky 7.49f Goldencents 6.34f for comparison\'s sake for other sires with horses in the race).  Interestingly, despite the War Front Green New Stallion belief, Beach and War of Will a combined zero for 7 on the green and 6 for 8 on dirt.  

Mott horses always tend to have that grinding style it seems: see Hofburg, Drosselmeyer, and now Tacitus/Country House.  I\'ve thought about this idea during these Derby preps.  Wondering why his training style lends itself to this type of dirt performances in his 3yo\'s.  

Hoping Max Security folds?  Not knocking anyone\'s opinion one way or the other here as it is one of the puzzles to solve.  But absolutely zero mention of Code of Honor anywhere it seems who:
Gets JohnnyV (rode Spinoff and Cutting Humor);
Will get more pace than he did in FlaDerby, maybe a fast pace according to some,
a good pattern (albeit with bo),
A Derby winning trainer;  

And yet no love at all to even get a piece?  Just seems if you are against Max Security, you should like this one.  If you are on Max Security, then I understand not using this one.  Starting to believe CoH\'s price will be much higher than many originally anticipated.

[hellersorr]

I suspect the Baffert exactas and trifectas will be underlays in the Derby relative to the win prices.  There will be a LOT of people saying:  \"Okay, the very first thing I\'m going to do is box the Bafferts.\"

Um, I might be one of \'em. . . .