Congratulations Mall!

[TGJB]

Really. So you don\'t want the figures adjusted when there is a really slow pace? You need to have a talk with Ragozin...

Silver,

>Where else but on TG can a horse with back-to-back 80 Beyers be just as competiive with horses who have run in the low 90\'s. If someone wants me to concede that a 110 Beyer is just as reliable and therefore useful as a Neg 2 on TG, then you can have that.>

I think I\'m going to have to disagree with you on this one. What you are saying is true, but I believe most \"serious\" handicappers that use Beyers are in fact making subjective adjustments to the raw figures to measure the ability of the horse.

TG players may see something -2 vs. -2.

Beyer players see:

Beyer 105 with trips notes of: 2w into fast pace 1st turn, took lead, rail back used hard, inside second turn weakened. Bias = None.  

vs.

Beyer 96 with trip notes of: 3w first turn behind fast pace, 3w back, swung out 6w late second turn hung. Bias = GR+

Then they subjectively evaluate the 105 and 96 earned under these conditions/trips and try to decide who actually ran better. Some may also look at weight changes.

IMO, only  beginners looks at the raw Beyers and assume they tell the whole tale of performance. It\'s simply a speed figure \"before\" any trip related info.



Post Edited (08-24-04 15:27)

[Silver Charm]

>It\'s simply a speed figure \"before\" any trip related info.
>Then they subjectively evaluate the 105 and 96 earned under these conditions/trips and try to decide who actually ran better. Some may also look at weight changes.

Missed this one earlier today because I was busy at work, reading press releases, 10K\'s, you know Stronach fired another key employee. But that is another subject.

Why not hire an expert like TGJB to do this subjective evaluation for you, he charges $25 per track. Do you read your own X-Rays?

I buy the form for the articles, Beyer is a GREAT RACING CHARACTER, a World Class Hall of Famer, with a decent system.

Classhandicapper you are a pretty sharp guy from what I have read, so tell me this, didn\'t Beyer come out with his \"Trip Notes\" book about the time SHEET products started becoming more and more mainstream. If ground loss is overrated as Hopkins has stated why make note of it. Hell even Randy Moss who works with Beyer\'s Group is always talking about how wide horses are on TV and he is a real smart guy even though he is a little to cozy with the pidgeon toed bow-legged one for me.

[miff]

Mark Hopkins, in answer to my question basically stated that \"wider\" isn\'t necessarily \"faster\"and that is proven just about every day when speed/ground saving type runners dust wide closers which have better numbers, all things being equal.

SC,

I can\'t speak for Andy Beyer, but I think ground loss is important. I also think it should be a seperate \"note\" from the speed figure.

An example might be:

I think a horse that was 4 wide into the first turn of a route when the pace was very lively (not extreme) ran a lot better race than a horse that was 4 wide on the second turn of that same route when all the speeds and pressers were collapsing - even if they finish in a photo.

Another example is bias:

I might think a horse that ran on the rail all the way on a dead rail day is superior to a horse that ran 3 wide the whole trip even if they finished in a photo. However, perhaps the horse that went 6 wide on both turns was better than both because he lost a ton of ground even though he was on the better part of the track.  

The examples are endless. Especially for a guy like me that believe that pace DOES impact time and results more often than just in extreme circumstances. IMO, it\'s just too difficult to seperate out from other factors and prove it because it\'s sometimes small and it varies from horse to horse depending on his own stamina and brilliance. It\'s an insight/theory that comes from observation of many races and results.

I use the sheets, Beyers, and Logic figures. I back out the ground loss from the TG figures and analyze it seperately as a component of trip.

I also believe a lot in form cycles etc... but I rarely makes bets on things based on 1/2 point or 1 point moves in figures etc...

IMO, no one has figures that are accurate enough to do that with any confidence. I am looking for bigger more general patterns.

[mandown]

Two points on ground loss:

(i) One way Hopkins may be right is that horses who have gotten good numbers though going wide in previous races may do the same in the race under consideration. If a horse is a closer who is habitually four or five wide on the home turn then he may again run the best figure but lose the race.

(ii) A horse in close quarters on the inside may be forced to run in an ungainly manner and expend more energy. A horse four wide but in full flow on the outside may go further but exert himself less.

Like everything to do with handicapping there are no absolutes only endless possibilities.

[miff]

Mandown,

On your point #1. There are many sheet readers I know who completely agree with your observation.\"The lower the number, the better the race\" is very misleading on a fair number of occasions especially to the newer player.I think TG would do justice to it\'s clients by concentrating more on such issues rather that the over hyped stats which can be skullbusters to even veteran players.