ROTW

[bobphilo]

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My 2 Cents.
>  
> I hate betting favorites and may have a say in
> this.
> JB how certain are you of that first #?
> He had a 6 point reaction if that initial # is
> correct.
>
Given the hot pace he set in his 2nd race that was not a negative reaction and I would consider his debut figure the more representative one.

[Mstrlucky74]

According to TG\'s Current should really jump up on dirt and that could make him contender on TG #\'s.

[JohnTChance]

The person who did your Race of The Week analysis should never do another one. Or else he should tell us what pools he bets into, so that we can bet into the same ones. In 30 years, I’ve never read an analysis that made me shake my head more. If your Race Of The Week is an educational exercise, the overwhelming point to your users should’ve been: BEWARE WHEN A TRAINER RUNS A -2 FIRST TIME OUT IN JANUARY! IT’S GONNA HURT. Instead this fellow told us: “-2? Hey, no problem!”

Incredibly, he also thought BOURBON WAR would go forward! Back to his 1!? Incredible. After all, Mark Hennig is a trainer who’s won so many Triple Crown preps.

“But Mr. Chance, you’re telling us this after the fact.” Tough. It just had to be said.

[TGJB]

It was me, thanks for sharing.

[johnnym]

Winner is definitely a serious derby horse

[bluechip21]

I will make it a point to never forget these words “Servis. Servis. Servis”

[rezlegal]

Must be the shoes! What else could explain a 43 win percentage at GP and converting  a 16k claimer into a grade I winner!

[bluechip21]

I feel like an idiot. It feels a lot like the first time I faded Baffert at Saratoga type idiot. Not that it was a huge payoff but just personally embarrassed in my handicapping to let this smug asshat beat me (Servis)... I should’ve known better. ... Servis Servis Servis. ... those BC seminar words will haunt me.

[littlebird]

Wooo Hooo!
I hear you! ,
JB believes he is in the business of horse racing, not even the actual horse breeders are in the business of horse racing according to him*, mind you, but he believes he is.
I believe, in actuality, he is in the business of gambling and peddling gambling data. A horseman he is not, though his data can be very good, very useful.
And so is the DRF. TG distills the DRF, and other data factors, for those who can’t or won’t take the time to learn to read all those little numbers at once.
Likewise sabermetrics, the numbers guys don’t play ball. They consult and get paid for it but their data analysis. They are not ball players.

*re Lasix posts I’ve felt a strong need to seriously respond to but must yet make the time. I shall.

[hellersorr]

Long time, no see.

[littlebird]

TY
 I, for one, am not a Chicken Littlep
 I believe horsemanship is being lost to the quick dollar
and has been for a human generation
If Jason Servis wins the Kentucky Derby, which I don’t believe he will, then yeah, the sky falls. Our gravity pit collapses upon us. Like a black hole. A fundamental collapse of our human will, our desire at its most basic, ie, to survive.
Why don’t we all just take a few deep breaths of fresh air, early in the morning is especially fresh
Really we can do this.
The survival of American horseracing really is about the horses. Fundamentally about horsemanship. Though there is no horsemanship without horses and the better the horseman, the better the horse. Read horsemen, not veterinarians.

[littlebird]

Who cares

[johnnym]

Winner got a 101 beyer.
Im guessing he paired his top.

[ajkreider]

Be curious to see what JB does with the race.  Track seemed to slow down quite a bit between the early state bred sprint and Restoring Hope\'s race.  Pretty sure they watered before the finale.

[richiebee]

For my education could you point out what you saw on Thorograph that would make
you think that Current would \"really jump up on dirt\"? (I realize that your
experience with TGs is apparently limited to whatever data is published in
connection with the ROTW).