ROTW

[Mstrlucky74]

That\'s taking a stand. Think Code and Maximum have very good shots to beat them both. Good luck.

[TGJB]

Any posts here with picks should have reasons with them, otherwise who cares.

[johnnym]

My 2 Cents.
 
I hate betting favorites and may have a say in this.
JB how certain are you of that first #?
He had a 6 point reaction if that initial # is correct.
He is going 1/8 longer (They all are) with 4 more LBS.(They all are)
If he is a miler or a sprinter then this is the time to go against him and the
way this prep season has gone why not at 5/2?
But that being said he is on my Pick 6 tix

I like three other horses in this race more than H.S.
1) Bourbon War for the reason said.
2) I like Wallbanger at a Price.
Congrats colts make a nice jump from 2-3 yrs old
Sheets say he is not fast enough and sheets alone I agree.
I am more than willing to pay at these odds a horse that liked the track with a nice top of the layoff. No doubt in my mind with a trainer running 35% new tops with a 32% of a new TG top coming off the fastest work of 99 other horses and doing it all on his own.
This horse is improving fast and coming in fresh he is a Win pick for me
3) JB I actually like CH pattern here. you say he has not developed as 3 year old.
I agree but that last pair was perfect for me to a trainer of a Kentucky Derby winner who took pretty much the same path as this guy.
He is another I believe sitting on a forward move.


3 horse EX box 3/4/9
GL

[dannyboy135]

I agree with Jerry hidden scroll and BW look strongest but I see it as a 4 horse race rather than a 2 horse race.  While Harvey is slower I like a horse that has just eclipsed his two year old number and with time between races and speed to set up his close I’ll make a tri with Harvey in the first and second spots using hidden scrol, Bw, and Hc

[richiebee]

Various ROTW Thoughts:

1) Misterlucky: Your weekly ROTW trollfest is about as predictable as Hialeah\'s
daily flight of the Flamingos, but nowhere near as entertaining. But thanks for
sharing the hard trying Cartouche\'s picks with us! If I had known I could have
been spared the agony of reading the insufferable Ken Sherman\'s extended take
on a workout he admittedly did not see. Brilliant!

2) Going to jump on the H. Wallbanger bandwagon. He is not in the same league
figure wise with the top ones here, but I see a hot pace set up by the Servis
runner, the maiden, and at one point or another Hidden Scroll. Lots of two turn
foundation in his 2YO campaign. McPeek\'s strike rate in graded stakes (14%) is
comparable to Mott (17%) and McGaughey (12%). His \"Last 90 Day\" TG trainer stat
is also encouraging.

3) I am not vertical player, but if I was I would throw in Pletcher\'s Current in
what will be his first try on a fast track. Current is bred for this and was a
pricey Keeneland September yearling who sold for $725,000.

A great day of racing starting with Arabians in the Desert at approx. 7:45
am....

[albatross]

Mr. Bee, you never disappoint, nice to see you rounding. It turns out that Mrs. Tross and the pooch will be driving back from Fl. a month early. Her own mother must have tossed her. So with my last complete game set up for tomorrow, I too will begin with Dubai, but will skip the first, even I have limits. With SA back on the docket, i’ll Be looking at at least 12 hours, and 12 tall boys from Meyden to Arcadia with a stop in Hallandale Beach along the way. If I can stay awake I’ll be cheering The Zags, which if they can win two, Al will be set up for a modest score in a bracket pool. I’ll toss in Harvey W. And best of luck. I’ll post the winner of the two big ones tomorrow right after they’re  official.

[richiebee]

Al:

Great to hear from you. Any man who can take a cheap shot at his wife, promise a
redboard and throw in a hoops pick for good measure is OK by me.

Looking at the late P4 at Hallandale, The Juice Man has Articulator (R11) who has
been mostly an off track sort. He is a WS Farish bred by Quality Road (150K stud
fee) out of a Mineshaft mare who sold for $4,500 as a yearling. Which means he is
likely as crooked as NYC\'s current Mayor deB... oops sorry JB, forgot, no politics!

[Tavasco]

richiebee it\'s nice to see your wit is embellishing the board this week.

I can not consider this race without first considering history. But first things first which would be the UAE derby and the unveiling of my annual 2019 Kentucky Derby\'s sushi-son. This year that would be Derma Louvre which sounds a little like an engine additive when voiced after a dose of wasabi. He doesn\'t have the \"bizarreness\" of Lani (yet) or the brilliance of Mendelssohn but with some Japanese KD points and some Dubain points to go with the owners intent one we\'ll see in KY.

The FL Derby (ROTW) tradition  is not unlike the Masters. FL winners who have won the roses include: Spectacular Bid, Swale, Unbridled, Thunder Gulch, Monarchos, Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming. With some exceptions the winners have been front runners.

Add in a few names that won in FL but not KY like Empire Maker, Scat Daddy, Quality Road and Take Charge Indy and you have many of the top sires in recent history. So the 2019 winner of the FL Derby is very likely to become a celebrity. I contend the horse almost certainly will be the property of iconic industry trainer and owner.

Let us not forget that Mr. GQ Todd Pletcher has won won four of the last five running of this Hallandale classic. So a cursory cull gives us #1 Hidden Scroll a double qualifier with Mott & Juddmont Farms, ditto #2 Current TAP & senor LaPenta, #7 Maximum Seurity is kind of a nouveau riche qualifier being by New Years Day, the West\'s & Jason Servis like TGJB mentioned this one is worrisome but with the wrong running style (imo) needs help. #9 Code of Honor (Farish McG III about as industry insiders  as you can be)

In summary we have three contenders #1 Hidden Scroll, #9 Code of Honor & #2 Current:
 
1. Hidden Scroll reminds me somewhat of Materialism I think he\'s a bit of a surprise to his connections to be in this position. He\'s brilliant but doesn\'t fit the profile of a Classic Winner. But I like him better than Always Dreaming.

2. Current s/b twice his morning line of 15/1. But in TAP we trust? The colt has only run on the dirt once and that was forgetable in the KY Jockey Club. Connections have put in a lot of effort trying to develop a Turf star - not. Virtually every objective measure says this one should not be in this race. Yet works indicate they are trying to teach the horse to run the first half mile rather than walk. Intuitive play

3. Code of Honor that this one has not improved on his 2 y/o top is of no concern to me. My opinion is the connections are being patient. Galileo as the Grand Sire is curious and stamps him as Classic distance capable. For me, he\'s not bettable at his 3/1 morning line. As the TG analysis points out he\'s likely to lose ground and imho on both turns so that\'s -(2-3) TG pts. meaning even a new top probably doesn\'t win.

What I\'m really curious about is Palm Beach Downs or Payson Park considered the slow & heavy workout facility because if its PBD I\'ll feel less the idiot for betting Current to show.

From a sheets reader perspective the bet has to be #11 Garter & Tie the colt is durable has been running TG 5\'s most of his two y/o campaign  and is poised to run a new top as a bigger stronger faster 3 y/o. For those who like to review video replays they already know this was a live horse in the Holy Bull. The jockey was out ridden by Hernandez on winner Harvey Wallbanger. A tough trip (bad post & tactics) and the horse running the fastest at the end of the race. Good timing into Sat\'s feature.

[johnnym]

Tavasco:
So you don’t like Code of Honor because of his outside post, so you go farther outside with a slower horse?
I do like the Current play for show and he will be on my tri tix in that spot.
As discussed in another tread I believe Pletcher is reinventing him self as a trainer and has learned to leave some juice in the lemon in his babies. He is for sure heating up.
It’s a beautiful morning in South Fl GL today.

[dodie]

Jerry,
  In Code of Honor\'s case, isn\'t it a good sign that he just paired his 2yo top, even though he only has 4 weeks rest now going into the Fla Derby rather than your analysis that he hasn\'t improved this year?  Isn\'t this what used to be referred to as an \"explosive\" pattern?\"  Or is the \"pairing of life time top first start off a layoff\" more of an older horse explosive angle?  Thanks

[Tavasco]

Johnnym, I\'m sorry to be unclear. I love Code Of Honor, what I was trying to convey is that 3/1 is too short of a price for me on a horse I expect to lose a couple of TG points in ground.

The \"Slower\" horse further out likely retains his 15/1 morning line price. Take a moment to watch a replay of the Holy Bull and see if you agree with me that Garter and Tie has some upside.

[TGJB]

It wasn’t first off a lay-off. If the other race wasn’t there I would see it more positively.

[dodie]

tnks.  Opinion on my Gleason observation?

[BitPlayer]

I tend to agree with you about Hidden Scroll.  Gulfstream was pretty clearly favoring speed on the rail when he broke his maiden on Pegasus day, so I would be surprised if another -2 is coming.  On the other hand, something in the 0 or 1 range would not surprise me, and (especially with a rail trip) that should be enough for the victory.  My concern about Hidden Scroll at a short price is that he has broken sluggishly in his first two starts.  Maybe Castellano will do better out of the gate than Rosario did, but if he doesn\'t and the horses outside him are able to close the door on Hidden Scroll, things could get ugly.

[boardedup]

I’ll use both the outside horses in exotics.  G&T more do to the “eye test” from the last, and a feeling that this is the race for a FL homebred.  I think a new top is likely and he should get the set up he needs.  

As to the 10, if he has another forward move it puts him right there.  His last clumps him in with many of the others # wise, except he’ll be a much better price.

I think there’s a good chance to get a price or possibly two underneath, but agree fully with the analysis that it’s a two horse race for the top spot and my money will be on the rail. Probably Multiple tickets keying HS and trying to find a price beneath.  TAP saver likely mandatory because he is super tough this week every year regardless of what’s happened before or what happens after.