I Will Be the First

[sekrah_]

HOF jockey and all but seriously, Mike is full of total shit, sorry.

[jmg5220]

is there a good link/video for the gallop out? I\'m not seeing a version of these 2 galloping out past Justify?

[TreadHead]

Again with the racing fan experts, everyone seems to think he was tired, but after if you saw the video of him basically dressage prance stepping thru the backside as he was led back to his stall right after the race you would see that he clearly was not that tired by the effort at all.  Visual facts seem to line up with Smith\'s story.

Still a lot of things that can go wrong between now and the Belmont, to be sure, and he\'s no shoe-in to win the race.  But of the dozen or so we\'ve had the last couple decades, he has as good a chance as any because of his physical size and speed ability.  

Will be interesting to see if someone enters a sprinter to try to run him out of the race and see if he can truly rate off pace.  That\'s going to be their best chance to beat him, no other stakes-quality route horse has the kind of speed that will bother him.

[TreadHead]

If Smith is to be believed and he had already geared down Justify, the gallop out is absolutely meaningless

[mjellish]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7vM07MGV-s0


Here’s as good as i could find.  And Bravazzo did not gallop out past him.  Just sayin.

[jmg5220]

Thanks.  I saw the same thing!

[jbelfior]

Anyone think Romans enters Promises Fulfilled?

Good Luck,
Joe B

[trwhis2]

I\'m not sure a true rabbit will hurt his chances.  He\'s been very forward in the last two because of the conditions and he was on the lead in the SA Derby because there was no other speed in the race.

I\'m in the camp that might argue he\'s won the last two despite the conditions, not because of them.  A fast track with a target like Promises Fulfilled likely produces his best performance to date assuming he comes out of the last in good order.

[ajkreider]

My first read on the gallop out was that Justify wouldn\'t let Tenfold by.  But looking at it again, I think it\'s just a matter of Smith not pulling Justify up, while Tenfold gets pulled up.

[boardedup]

Huh?  Bravazo goes by him when they change camera angles.  It looks like Bravazo continues on more of a straight line while Justify begins to go \"around the turn\"  But it appears to me that Bravazo certainly passes him?

In the video you posted if you pause it right before they switch the camera angle you can see him clearly ahead and then like I said above in the next angle they run in different paths so to say with Bravazo continuing more \"straightish\" while Justify rounds the turn.  

Regardless I don\'t put much stock in the gallop out anyway and if Smith pulled him up, like others say, it doesn\'t matter at all.

[boardedup]

I certainly don\'t claim to be an expert in reading a horse\'s mannerisms or body language and will gladly defer to you or anyone else on here when it comes to that.  And according to all reports he looked good the next morning, that said,  two horses who weren\'t considered to be in the same league as him two weeks prior made up substantial beaten lengths to the point that Bravazo was only beaten 1/2 a length.

Yes it\'s a different race, different conditions, and \"performance isn\'t a constant\" but as dominate as his derby win was, in my opinion this was anything but.  They went out pretty slow, and again, he hit the tape w/ horses who weren\'t even an after thought two weeks prior.  He was under pressure the whole way around the track Saturday for the first time ever.

 He wasn\'t dominate which is ok, but I find it hard to believe that was by design.  A win is a win is a win no doubt, but it\'s hard for me to believe that MS was so confident he geared him down to the point of just holding on like that.

He\'s great, but off that effort for me he\'s a clear bet against.

[P-Dub]

trwhis2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m not sure a true rabbit will hurt his chances.
> He\'s been very forward in the last two because of
> the conditions and he was on the lead in the SA
> Derby because there was no other speed in the
> race.
>
> I\'m in the camp that might argue he\'s won the last
> two despite the conditions, not because of them.
> A fast track with a target like Promises Fulfilled
> likely produces his best performance to date
> assuming he comes out of the last in good order.

Agree with this.

He doesn\'t need the lead, so entering rabbits or hoping for a pace meltdown out of him....I\'m not sure that\'s going to be an issue. He likes to be forwardly placed, but doesn\'t need the lead.

Justify pressed a quality horse all the way around the track and held off the closers. I\'m not going to get too caught up over a gallop out or what Smith said after the race.

He\'ll be a short price and obviously everyone will be lining up to beat him. Hopefully we get a dry track and great racing all day.  The biggest disappointment has been the effect the weather has had on the undercard, and Belmont usually has a spectacular undercard on Belmont day.

[mjellish]

What i was told was that Justify rebroke when saw Bravazzo at the wire.  If he passed him at all it was briefly.

I dunno what the number will be.  Guess would be -1 or -.075 depending upon ground.  Cant tell where Justify was on 2nd turn, maybe 3 path average?  But running eyeball to eyeball for the first mile is tough on any horse.  What happened to AP when Frosted ran with him in the Travers?


Speaking of AP.  

On an equally sloppy pimlico track Pharoah went 22.90, 46.49, 111.42, 137.74, 158.46 and was pulling away to win by 7 as he came home his last 3/16 in 20.72.

Justify went  23.22, 47.29, 111.42, 136.10, 155.93 going eyeball to eyeball with good magic all the way around and still had enough left to come home his last 3/16 in 19.83 and hold off late runners.  

You cant necessarily compare raw times from days 3 days apart let alone 3 years.  But in this case by my math the variant is about the same for both days.

So Justify ran eyeball to eyeball, faster, and was wider than AP.  So whether he regressed a bit or not, that was a good performance IMO.

I have no opinion on whether this means Justify is more or less likely to bounce in the Belmont.  They are all different and handle it differently.  Percentages would say if you’re going to bet he’s a bet against though.  More people have walked on the moon than there are horses who have won the triple crown.

[TGJB]

\"Walked on the moon\" was excellent, MJ, whether it\'s literally true or not.

I did an interview with a guy (Daily News?) some years ago. He talked to me for an hour about the horse going for the TC in the Belmont, I think Big Brown. I think the only quote he used was \"Why would you take 3/5 on something that hasn\'t happened the last 12 times it could have\"?

[TGJB]

And by the way, that is setting up as a wildly interesting race, and a great card.