Man Bites Dog

[TGJB]

I\'m pretty sure I discussed my reasoning on this subject somewhere in this string, I\'m not going to do it again.

But as far as the Jake sheets go, if someone believes their Derby numbers, this is what they believe-- that Justify won the Kentucky Derby by running by far the worst race of his life. That if he had run back to his (paired) top he would have won by 9 lengths.

Does anyone really believe that? Vito?

That\'s why they haven\'t posted them.

[Tavasco]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The seminar says that recent stats suggest in a
> 20-horse field, we could expect two tops (10%).
> Indeed there were: Instilled Regard and Bravazo.
> My stats (2013-2017) show 12.5% new tops (12 out
> of 96).

> With regard to predicting who might run those new
> tops, the seminar relied on pattern data.  In
> their last races, Instilled Regard ran an
> “Off” race (1.25 off top) and Bravazo ran an
> “X.”  Since 2013, the only horse to run a new
> top in the Derby off a bad race was Frammento, who
> improved 3 points (to a 3.25) in the Derby after
> running 1.25 points off his top in his prior race.
>  In that sample there were 6 horses coming into
> the Derby off an “X” and 15 coming in off an
> “Off.”


The Peter Pan @ Bel Sat - California horses run 1-2 and Baffert was not the culprit.



I Posted the following a week before the race: My point is the jump up horses are in the majority Ca. horses.

Earlier I posted if someone/anyone thinks Justify lays over the derby field and that person certainly is not me, yet. That someone may have considered the following facts:

2018 - Justify runs a 1/2 point new top
     - Instilled Regard becomes a 0 @ CD after insisting he was a 4 in SoCal
     - Bravazo (an also ran), although not a Ca horse, jumps up to a non paying  new top.

2017 - Battle of Midway a 5 or 6 point SoCal horse becomes a TG 1 @ CD

2016 - Nyquist a 2² - 3 point performer becomes a TG -0² @ CD

2015 - American Pharaoh continues improving up 2 pts @ CD
     - Firing Line moves up 2² at CD

2014 - Supposed Underlay California Chrome didn\'t have to improve to waltz home    a winner.

2013 - Goldencents regressed badly

2012 - I\'ll Have Another TG 1\'s & Bodemeister\'s TG 3 somehow blitz well regarded TG 2\'s and 3\'s of Union Rags, Alpha, El Padrino, Gemologist, Take Charge Indy.

2011 - Midnight Interlude - Baffert
- Comma To The Top - Miller
- Ran more like pretenders than contenders.

2010 - Looking At Lucky (moves 3 pts. back toward top) demonstrates the importance of the trip in a field with several closely matched rivals. Super Saver improves from TG 2 to TG 1 saves ground and gets the roses.

2009 - Pioneer of The Nile a Socal 3-4 becomes a CD TG 0 which surprisingly isn\'t good enough.

Not many want to bet the favorite but lately those that get the money @ CD come from west of Barstow and move up 2-3 points. We have a couple who could fit that criteria this year. Just a recent trend and of course may or may not continue in 2018,

[TGJB]

If you give Instilled Regard a better number for his previous one you have to give Justify one as well, which would mean he did not run a top in the Derby. You can\'t have both. IR also ran two other times this year, neither in California, with a 4 top.

Also worth considering is Rick Arthur. Not specific to any of these horses, but no state is tougher on drugs than California.

[T Severini]

A slop track can be chaos.

Count the number of X\'s...sure, part of that was pace but many did not fire.

Initially believing the inside was good on the Derby Race, not near as convinced of that now. Path 2-3 maybe, but can\'t be sure.

Regarding Instilled Regard, it was clear Hollendorfer believed he was going to put it together. 4\'s were no good. The Post was not good. The slop didn\'t appear to be good. Getting blown up at the start and finding trouble were no good, but the horse did show something. If you watch the race and factor all the horse overcame, its clear that was his best career race.


As pertains to other years, you\'ve complied notable evidence, but the change in medication oversight tends to wave a red flag. Not really sure. Only available time is to consider this year.

[BitPlayer]

Many of the horses you listed did not have their final preps in California.  From memory:

Nyquist:  Gulfstream
American Pharoah:  Oaklawn
Firing Line:  Sunland
Bodemeister:  Oaklawn

Also SA had a synthetic surface before 2011.

[mjellish]

A thought I haven\'t seen mentioned.  Healthy 3 year olds are supposed to be running a fair amount of tops in the spring.

You could also argue that IR was one of best bred for more distance and slop.  Bloodstock guy I know named David Miller had him picked on top and sells his ky derby report on brisnet.

Suppose you could also say Bravazzo had an off race at FG where he was getting out on both turns, non effort, trained by Lukas, etc.  

Dunno what else anyone could or is supposed to say.  The figs are just a tool, one of many.  I don\'t question the TG figs for either of these colts before or after the ky derby.

Here\'s a thought to question though.  I think Rags had Justfy coming into the KY Derby off a pair, meaning they said he ran the same number in the Santa Anita Derby, and won that race, as he ran winning the alwn1x race prior to that.  I did\'t buy that then and I don\'t buy it now, and I certainly can\'t believe he then went backwards from there and won the ky derby.  But I haven\'t seen their ky derby figs yet.

[TGJB]

Epilogue:

In response to an inquiry about why they no longer post the numbers they gave the horses for the Derby and Preakness, Jake just told his customers they’ve changed their policy. You can now get them for $25 each. Can’t imagine why they did that...

You have to wonder when even the few brainwashed, beaten down customers they have left will have had enough.

[smalltimer]

Reminds me of the student who brings home a crappy report card and doesn\'t want to show the parents. During those times when I had a great report card  I couldn\'t wait to show them. If the numbers on the report card were not so good, I walked around holding my breath hoping they\'d forget to ask. Can\'t imagine their response on the poor card if I told them I would only show them if they gave me a 20 spot.

[TGJB]

So forget for a minute that Jake has Justify winning two legs of the Triple Crown with the worst two races of his life. How about having Blended Citizen winning the Peter Pan without running as well as he did in his first two starts this year, or even as a 2yo. Seriously, guys?

[Ritis]

BY TGJB. (One of the problems is that the guys over there don\'t know anything about figures)

Many people have told me that you are a very sick puppy,you are doing nothing to disprove them

[TGJB]

I’m running a business. What are you doing?

[hellersorr]

JB\'s doing what some jockeys do:  Ride two horses in the same race.

(Just an observation, not a commentary in either direction.)

[jerry]

What’s any of this have to do with handicapping?

[Tavasco]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What’s any of this have to do with handicapping?

Pattern reading. Prior to the Preakness either Len or Len read both Good Magic\'s, and Justify\'s sheet pattern as positive off their derby regressions and made Good Magic the key to the race. Note - Jake had Good Magic regressing more than Justify in the Derby.

So what I found to be ironic was both sides of the street made Good Magic the key horse in the Preakness with contrary patterns. Just goes to show there is some art to making meaning of patterns.

Regarding puppies, I suspect TGJB can be playful from time to time but I can\'t picture floppy ears.

Handicapping? The process of assigning advantage depends on accurate information. TG incorporates some quality control functions.

[TGJB]

That last paragraph is on point. As I’ve said here before, the most important handicapping decision you make is what data you use. You can’t make good decisions with bad data.