Belmont Day and Derby M/L

[Fairmount1]

Another successful (albeit not at the windows this year) Derby trip in the books.  A first time Trip to the Preakness on tap in 2 weeks and the potential for a TC bid as Baffert has never lost a Preakness with a Derby winner. So, looking ahead a bit to the one in TG\'s backyard........  

FrankD says he will be at Belmont Day likely.  Any other TG members that will be there?  I\'m headed to the Preakness for the 1st time this year and figure while I\'m checking off all these events I might as well head to Belmont also esp if Justify is in a position to put up another Triple Crown banner in the Racing HOF at Saratoga.  Belmont3?  Richiebee?  Mathcapper?  Jerry?  Alan?  Others?  Let me know as it may influence my decision if several of you guys I\'ve met at Saratoga will be there.  I understand you guys often have a spot in the backyard there for this day from posts in years past?  Can I join the party if so and/or let me know what I have to do to make it happen. Do I need to buy a certain ticket, etc etc.  I\'m sure Frank will answer several questions privately as I go along but very curious who else can/will make it. Thanks guys.  I haven\'t fully decided just yet but strongly considering it.  

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Below are the results of my last attempt at ml (predraw) on the Derby.  There are a few good things and several things I could have improved upon like sticking closer to my original instinct on Magnum Moon.  My Boy Jack, as the board covered early on, was something I did not see coming in any scenario I mapped out.  I will also note that in a previous post in a thread about Justify being 2-1, I explained that 15 horses from 2000-2017 were at odds of 58.10-1 or higher, 15 of the 336 entries.  This year 6 of the 20 entries were over 58.10.  I\'m not sure if this is a function of the high opinion of the top choices this year (6 under 10-1) and/or a function of 5 consecutive favorites shifting the public to bet more on the top several choices.  

My Rank, Name, My Odds Prediction, Actual Rank, Actual Odds  

1.   Justify, 2.90-1, 1st choice, 2.90-1
2.   Audible, 5.90-1, 4th choice, 7.00-1
3.   Mendelssohn,  7.30-1, 3rd choice, 6.80-1
4.   Good Magic, 9.50-1, 6th choice, 9.70-1
5 .  Magnum Moon, 10.10-1, 7th choice, 13.70-1
6.   Bolt D\'Oro, 12.30 -1, 5th choice, 8.90-1
7.   Vino Rossi, 15.90-1, 8th choice, 14.10-1
8.   Hofburg, 21.70-1, 10th choice, 27.00-1
9 .  My Boy Jack, 22.80-1, 2nd choice, 6.70-1
10.  Enticed, 26.40-1, 14th choice, 50.30-1
11 . Noble Indy, 27.10-1, 15th choice, 59.20-1
12.  Solomini, 28.80-1, 17th choice, 62.90-1
13.  Free Drop Billy, 29.30-1, 12th choice, 45.40-1
14 . Flameaway, 36.00-1, 11th choice, 37.50-1
15.  Instilled Regard, 37.40, 20th choice, 85.10-1
16 . Combatant, 43.40-1, 19th choice, 70.60-1
17.  Promises Fulfilled, 45.50-1, 13th choice, 49.00-1
18.  Bravazo, 51.60-1, 18th choice, 66.90-1
19.  Lone Sailor, 57.80-1, 9th choice, 24.50-1
20.  Firenze Fire, 67.90-1, 16th choice, 59.70-1

[Molesap]

Damn Fairmount - nailed the favorite to the T. Nice job overall, especially so far out from the race.

[belmont3]

Fairmount,

Plan on being at Belmont.
It\'s a 2 1/2 hour drive from Pa.

I usually drive down with a group of guys the day of the race.
We already have reserved seats. We may have an extra ticket. I will check.

Let me know your itinerary.

If you plan an extended stay on East Coast post the \'Ol Hilltop, you are welcome to stay in Pa. a few days.

Might enjoy a visit to Pocono Downs. LOL.  

Or maybe we can coax Frank into a day or two at Suffolk (they are soon to close that track).

Bob