Derby Stuff

[Silver Charm]

Well said Ritchie and well done Mole.

[Tavasco]

As Patrick Reed heads for \"Holly\" the 18th hole at Augusta National it is somewhat reminiscent of Craig Stadler and Charles Coody except those stocky champions had big personalities.

Because he doesn\'t fit the sterotype it becomes difficult to imagine he\'ll win. Of course that\'s on the turf.

@ 2/1 imo only fanatics and true believers will indulge. We don\'t even know if he can run inside horses. I side with Richie on this one.

Baffert saying let me show you this years Derby winner could have been fake news.

[Fairmount1]

Molesap,

It is a little early for my Early Stab at the Kentucky Derby Odds with the Ark Derby still to be run so I haven\'t put extraordinary time into this endeavor yet.  I find this a very interesting take on your part and had not considered the last future pool as a predictor of Derby Day odds.  It looks like Justify closed at 3-1 and Mendelssohn at 5-1 if it is completely updated on the Derby Future website. My spreadsheet only goes to 2000 so excuse me for not having \'99 included for the discussion below.

_______________________________    

Your thought of slightly less than 2-1 seems very unlikely to me.  Since 2000, only 1 horse has went off under 2.00-1 during those 18 Derby runnings.  That was Point Given in 2001 at 1.80-1.  There were 17 betting interests.  On your side of this argument is that Baffert trained him and was so confident that year that he said he thought he had a chance that Point Given and Congaree would run 1-2.  He seems to have similar confidence this year.  

As you probably know, there have been only 3 horses at 2-1 (not 5-2) during those 18 runnings or in other words 2-1 but not 5-2.  FuPeg, Big Brown, and Nyquist.  Only Big Brown and Nyquist were 2-1 with 20 betting interests in the race.  One reason you may be right at 2-1 is that Big Brown and Nyquist were both undefeated headed into Derby Day like Justify.  There have been four favorites that have been between 2.50-1 and 2.90-1 (5-2) in that span. So, during the last 18 runnings, there have been 8 horses under 3-1 and 10 that were at or over that number.

I also would point out that Mendelssohn is the likely 2nd choice esp if DRF includes his Beyer in DRF as I heard on one media source as a possibility (DRF connected representative stated this).  Some have said Beholder\'s brother will be far more than 5-1 or 6-1 on Derby Day. But depending on the ArkDerby result (which includes Magnum Moon and Solimini among others), I think he very well could be at 5-1 or so esp since he is owned by Tabor.  I point this all out because if by chance he did go as low as under 9-2 as the 2nd choice (under 4.50-1), I find it highly unlikely that Justify is anything less than 5-2.  Interestingly, no 2nd choice has been less than 4.00-1 since 2000.  

There is one other note I would like to make on your connection between Future wagering and Derby Day odds.  The truly uninformed money wasn\'t in the pool this weekend; on Derby Day, it will include far more people that think the 15 is pretty and that number 3 has beautiful silks or the wiseguy that always plays a 20-1 shot for $500.  This would make me believe Justify\'s odds will be slightly higher than you are likely thinking on Derby Day.  

My take is that he will be the favorite.  The \"hype\" will subside a bit.  Since the point systems started in 2013 (including that Derby), the favorite has won all five runnings supporting your idea that the crowd will go after the favorite again.  But last year the favorite was 4.70-1 so I don\'t think that will be the reason Justify is a low number.  Also, I\'ve already had several handicappers I respect already tell me since yesterday that they will be against Justify on Derby Day.  Justify will go favored.  Where he ends up is a real guess.  Under 2-1 seems very, very unlikely. 2-1 seems a little low to me.  I see him between 2.50-1 and 3.50-1 (and closer to 2.50 than 3.50) if I had to guess today but I will wait to see how next week unfolds for a full guess at the field including Justify.  And what if Derby week he draws post number 1?

As to johnnym\'s point that Justify will be higher than 3-1 (3.00-1 or more), again, I\'m not certain any of us can venture a fair guess until the Ark Derby is ran just in case something interesting happens there figure wise.  Johnny, I highly doubt there will be 5 or 6 horses under 10-1 (9.90-1 or less).  Recent history suggests it will be likely be 3 or 4 horses in that range.  The two times since 2007 there were 5 or 6 horses 9.90-1 or less, the favorite was 5.20-1 and 5.40-1 respectively.  That won\'t happen this year with Justify.

[Tavasco]

Well put and interesting.

[johnnym]

At the close of the future pool 6 were under 10-1.
I’ll stick to my prediction for know.
Justify was 3-1

[Molesap]

Everyone - thanks for the replies. When I posted the morning line stuff, I had Fairmont in mind and I defer to his expertise in that area. I always look forward to his annual post breaking down the betting trends and where he thinks the odds will land for each starter. He uses much more empirical data than I did and obviously waiting until all the preps are run and the field is established with post positions is a more prudent plan. After reading Fairmount’s response, I think I probably overestimated the degree to which Justify will get bet and thinking he may be going under 2/1 was a stretch. Plus, you never know what horse is going the catch of eye of the public like Patch did (yes pun was intended).

I did agree on a number of points made here and by other posters. I do think Mendelssohn will be the second choice if nothing “special” happens in Arkansas this weekend and barring any unforeseen circumstances. However, if Magnum Moon wins big with a strong number he will get significant action. He is the only one left to run in my opinion that can garner enough attention at this point to shake up the big six, partially because he is part of the big six (with closing odds and will pays from the futures wager).

Justify - 3/1 ($8.40)
Mendelssohn - 5/1 ($12.60)
Audible - 7/1 ($16.60)
Magnum Moon - 8/1 ($19.80)
Good Magic - 9/1 ($20.60)
Bolt d’Oro - 9/1 ($21.00)

Interesting to me that Magnum Moon closed lower than Bolt d’Oro and Good Magic, so if he wins, his odds are only dropping. The next closest betting interested was all other 3YO at 17/1. The lowest individual horses after that were Hofburg at 22/1, then a trio at 25/1 including Enticed, My Boy Jack and Solomini.

I expect to see what FrankD, mentioned as well. A wiseguy horse that should be 20/1 that gets bet down to about half his odds â€" then like most wiseguy horses, he’ll run like he should be 50/1.

[Fairmount1]

Hofburg has the feel of a wiseguy horse that may be lower than his m/l.  Not expressing an opinion on his ability here just that he could be much lower than anticipated.  

This future pool with $339k really expresses how \"informed\" the pool is compared to Derby Day.  One can see the money is concentrated on the more likely winners and ignoring the less likely winners by a wide margin compared to Derby Day odds.  6 interests under 10-1 and 7 interests over 60-1 (29% of the interests).  Granted, I\'m not comparing apples to apples with 24 vs 20 betting interests in the example below but I think the difference should be clear.    

In 2005, the Derby consisted of the following superfecta:

14th choice, Giacomo:  50.30-1
20th choice, Closing Argument:  71.60-1
2nd choice, Afleet Alex:  4.50-1
10th choice, Don\'t Get Mad:  29.20-1

This is important because since that Derby the longshots are not as \"long.\"  

One simple example.

From 2000-2005 (6 Derbies), there were 102 betting interests total in those Derbies and 11 of 102 (10.7%) were 58.10-1 or longer with only one of those Derbies having 20 betting interests.

From 2006-2017 (12 Derbies), there were 234 betting interests total in those Derbies and 4 of 234 (1.7%) were 58.10-1 or higher with 7 of those Derbies having 20 betting interests .

Don\'t ask why I picked 58.10-1, just go with it. (Rocky would likely yell at me but basically it was an easy number to work with to make the point most clear).  As you can see, the percentage of long prices in this weekend\'s pool is far higher than either before or after 2005 on Derby Day.  

Johnny, I\'ll also stand firm on my prediction even this far out re: horses 9.90-1 or less.  Maybe we can make a friendly wager on some Heinken at Saratoga on this if you are up there one of these years?  I\'ll take 4 horses or less will be 9.90-1 or less and you can have 5 horses or more will be 9.90-1 or less on Derby Day?  Let me know if you are in.  If not Heinken for you, just let me know by pm or text your preference. :-)

[johnnym]

Richie:
Consider it a gentleman’s wager I’m not a beer guy but I’ll put down a couple of Tito’s and soda.
Agree regarding Hofburg.

[Chas04]

Putting the winner aside for a second who could be this years Classic Empire? Decent 3-4th type hits the board & fires right back for a respectable 2nd at Pimlico to finally tire out.

[statuette]

Good Magic will plod in for 3rd or 4th

[jerry]

Not sure why you think so. If he didn’t go back in the BG he then has an immaculate sheet. Not sayin he’ll win or even go forward in the KYD but there’s nothing to indicate he won’t.

[Niall]

Really interesting discussions and view points that are articulated well. Thank you all !! Great info provided by Molesap. 5 times in a row since the point system went into effect? That is powerful to me. I have been looking for a reason to go all in, and bet against, Mendelssohn. Right now I\'m all in, and will stay that way unless he shows up in KY looking worse for wear from the UAE Derby. Here\'s why...I\'m well invested in him in all future pools except this past one. I\'m also going to take a stance that figures from there are just not as accurate. TG\'s and otherwise. One reason I take that stance is that I heard Baffert say that WestCoast did not run his A race. And he also raved about Mendelssohn saying he was a big, fast looking, muscular horse. He wasnt surprised. He also really likes the filly he\'ll be getting from that race. Whats her breeding? Oh - what do you think about Scat Daddy being 26-1 in the sire pool and has the top 2 choices currently?

Finally, anybody know a good place to watch the race in Aruba?

[statuette]

Good points And you have to see the post draw

[wrongly1]

Granted Good Magic won this weekend.  Many that have watched this colt work are very negative on him and feel he has physical issues.  Just my two cents but I will be paying close attention to him on Derby week.

[RICH]

all I know is we are due for a price