ROW

[FrankD.]

One of the things I’ve loved about performance figures since day one are the individual cappers varied interpretations of the same data. It makes for Spa backyard battles and another not always so civil thread that has been a constant for me with a couple of former well known posters here.

I’m assuming the ROW was put up by TGJB, looks to be his MO.....
So at the risk of looking foolish, here goes.

I don’t see SP as an 0-2-X or non X in this case. This controversial pattern is interpreted here for one that has danced a few times then establishes a new top, as opposed to a first start baseline. Either way he ran much better than I anticipated in the FOY and yes if I was viewing this as 0-2, a non X is always very strong. SP gets a decent Tomillison for 9 furlongs but many were questioning his ability at 1 1/16 including his trainer in public comments. He gets no pedigree help from his dam on what she has thrown so far despite being a Mag D’Oro, Speightstown 2.5 times the stakes winners under as opposed to over a mile.

Promises Fulfiled got away pretty easy in the FOY, can’t see the aggressive Saez letting that happen here from the rail. Interesting prop bet involving which of those 2 come out of the first turn with the lead? Audible who I am completely tossing out of the equation has to go from out there to get position and will be 3 deep into the quick turn. Holy Bull was obviously a gutting race for him, he didn’t work for 19 days after then another 11 and has been consistently beat  by his work mates. Mississippi is out there too adding blinkers?

I see a very hot pace with SP going further than maybe he wants to really go. A perfect set up for Catholic Boy whom I love in this spot unless the track comes up a conveyor belt which it hasn’t shown to be anything but fair so far this week?

CB has had 3 dirt races, a horror trip in the BC Juv, a solid effort that was well backed here in the Remsen and a very disappointing effort in the Sam Davis.
However his disappointment in the SD did pair his 2 yr old top in his first 3 yr old effort. Tampa is a quirky surface, many just don’t run over it but more importantly is CB was probably in the 80% range as to fitness and paired his top.
He has worked impressively and needs at least a 3rd place finish to be borderline on points, more likely win or place to make the Louisville gate.

The betting will be interesting among the 4 above runners, Audible I assume will be favored near the ML price, with the other 3 jammed pretty tight. CB could be the 4th choice and at 4/1 maybe 7/2 he gets a good win bet here.

Hofburg is the wild card, he will not be 20/1 half that is more likely. I’ve had a lot of discussion this week with quite a few about this VERY un Mott like move.
I will not let him knock me out of the 🌈 and will use him prominently with CB in verticals probably hitting some all buttons with those 2 in supers & tri’s. I like the chances of this one making the triple. How old school is a 4f bullet 5 days before the race? You don’t see that one too much anymore, not quite Jan Nerud or The Chief blowing‘em out in 34 a couple of days before but Mott would not run anywhere near this spot without something pretty special.....

Good luck and happy 🌈 hunting,

Frank D.

[jbelfior]

Nice job Frank. Sometimes they do their best stretching out first time around 2 turns. SP a huge ? for me and will be way over bet IMO. Wouldn\'t shock me if he goes off the choice with all the negative news surrounding Audible\'s works.

Actually more interested in Mott in the Pan American.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[TGJB]

Come on Frank, that’s not why you like Catholic Boy. How much did you have on Holy Week yesterday?

[philywheel]

Holy Week cost me the Pick 5, I was all in on the 1 ,ouch

[mack620]

Hi Frank,

I think you\'re right on with your call on Catholic Boy. He paired his 2yo top last time, normally a very explosive pattern and I love his bottom with all those turf furlongs under his belt. He is the only single in my moderate investment today in the Rainbow 6.

Audible\'s less than stellar works coming in, the 8 hole at Gulf and a less than compelling line make him very vulnerable as the heavy chalk.

Strike Power enjoyed a perfect trip in last relaxing off very moderate early fractions. As you pointed out, breeding doesn\'t scream distance and Migliore, who has had some very good calls lately, is convinced he wants no part of 9 furlongs  based on his confirmation and stride. In addition, I read his line as vulnerable to regression here so he is a toss for me in the win spot.

I always enjoy your posts Frank, good luck today!

[Mstrlucky74]

Strike Power- Ran a huge number 1st out and only slightly regressed and came right back to it. Explosive patter even though only 3 races. Only concern is the rest. This is my win play as Cath. and Aud. will be 1/2 in the odds.

[P-Dub]

Great write up Frank. Not much time, taking my step dad out for a birthday brunch (its still somewhat early out here).

Love Catholic Boy pairing that 2YO top, should see a solid pace in front of him and come running late. If the track is fair, he has a big shot. Strike Power a must use. Will also use Mississippi.

[big18741]

Using Strike Power,CB and Hofburg in the pk\'s.

Hofburg a price key in the tri\'s with those two and Audible defensively as a saver.

Audible worked horribly his last two but three back was good against Outplay who just jogged in the 10th.

Hof had no idea what he was doing in his last race going to the gate and in the stretch.Bred for 9f\'s + and he gets 2nd lasix(Mott 37% tops)
No clue if this inexperienced horse puts it together today but at some point he will.

SP is fast with a distance question that gets answered today.
CB could move forward off the pairs and handles the distance.

[Marlin]

I saw Sister Jean get wheeled away with a sack of cash @ the Alamo OTB after that race.  Go Ramblers!

[Silver Charm]

Cant go for Strike Power. # Power is there and inside post are usally a formula for a lock. Bit he isnt switching leads well amd usally these types hit the end of the line at some point.

Catholic Power has trained well over the strip. Had a win at the distance already. Gets an agressive position jockey change and has a pattern thays indicates anotjer forward is coming. No value at 2-1. Regardless all of the above scream winner!!

[boardedup]

I\'m in total agreement with the ROW.  I loved SP effort last out.  In today\'s age the gifted ones constantly out run pedigree.  At the risk of looking as bad as I did last year when I wrote three paragraphs against Cloud Computing before the Preakness, I\'m super confident today.

 I\'ve liked this one since day one, I think he\'ll out run his pedigree, drawing the rail should help mightily (though the heavy watering before the race probably doesn\'t help?).  Saez has had a great meet, I feel he tops it off with a W today,  

Good Luck to all, for me it\'s -  Win bet - 1, Tri- 1/6,7,8/6,7,8.. (with a smaller 1/6 Ex. box just because it\'s Easter weekend)

[boardedup]

21&4??? That one hurt.

[shanahan]

Albarado fâ€"â€"d this whole thing up - but then again, that\'s what he\'s best at.  I really doubt he cares where he finished.
Audible looked gassed.  Very professional (whatever that means) until the last 50 yards or so...JV schooling everyone again.  Although Mississippi was always a good inclusion (referring to the breeding comment from another poster).

Well, 3 biggies to go!

[dsipes]

The analysis on Strike Power was persuasive.  I\'m new to TG and learning.  I went with Audible for the following reasons.  Audible was a 1 last out like Strike Power so that told me they were the two fastest horses in the race. Those 1\'s were Tops and Audible had more time off to recover. But their running styles and post positions helped me make the choice.  SP in Post 1 was going to go and Romans said he was absolutely sending Promises Fulfilled to the lead.  So the insane pace they set was not all that surprising.  Therefore, Audible being the other fastest horse/low fig horse in the race and able to stalk that expected fast contested pace made more sense to me.  I\'m wrong a hell of a lot more than I\'m right, I didn\'t win much on the won bet but the ROW analysis was paramount for me to form this opinion.

[shanahan]

dsipes Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The analysis on Strike Power was persuasive.  I\'m
> new to TG and learning.  I went with Audible for
> the following reasons.  Audible was a 1 last out
> like Strike Power so that told me they were the
> two fastest horses in the race. Those 1\'s were
> Tops and Audible had more time off to recover. But
> their running styles and post positions helped me
> make the choice.  SP in Post 1 was going to go and
> Romans said he was absolutely sending Promises
> Fulfilled to the lead.  So the insane pace they
> set was not all that surprising.  Therefore,
> Audible being the other fastest horse/low fig
> horse in the race and able to stalk that expected
> fast contested pace made more sense to me.  I\'m
> wrong a hell of a lot more than I\'m right, I
> didn\'t win much on the won bet but the ROW
> analysis was paramount for me to form this
> opinion.


Your, my friend, are a fast learner.  Nicely interpreted.