A Second Take (What Fun Is The Derby Trail Without Steam)

[Tavasco]

The Gotham
It is somewhat of a stretch to consider this race a Kentucky Derby prep. More of a prep for a Kentucky Derby prep (The Wood Memorial). Many of us now discount horses coming from Aqueduct to any other Triple Crown race other than the Belmont. So when FrankD points out that the recent Gotham Winner Enticed is no doubt a slow rat imitating his predecessors it seems to realistic to deny him any steam at all.   He did run three (3) wide all the way around the Aqueduct oval. You\'d think JB and the TG crew would attribute a reasonably good # to the race. He finished up good looking like he could go around again.

The Tampa Derby
The Tampa Derby has produced some steam horses over the last few years. Probably because TAP uses the race as a stepping stone. This year favored TAP runners did\'t run much at all. But what can be said about Quip is that he was 20/1 or so and findable. He flashed ability early in his career in KY. If I\'m not mistaken this was his first 2018 outing after a good 2 y/o campaign. This Winstar property must be considered by some to still have upside (regardless of TG #) one thing is certain he has points.

Changing Times
About the notion that Chad Brown is training Good Magic to run 1 +1/4 miles not 1+1/16 or even 1+1/8 but precisely 1+1/4. Which explains why he didn\'t  go with the two that beat him in the Fountain of Youth.

[FrankD.]

The Gotham
It is somewhat of a stretch to consider this race a Kentucky Derby prep. More of a prep for a Kentucky Derby prep (The Wood Memorial). Many of us now discount horses coming from Aqueduct to any other Triple Crown race other than the Belmont. So when FrankD points out that the recent Gotham Winner Enticed is no doubt a slow rat imitating his predecessors it seems to realistic to deny him any steam at all. He did run three (3) wide all the way around the Aqueduct oval. You\'d think JB and the TG crew would attribute a reasonably good # to the race. He finished up good looking like he could go around again.

Tavasco,

3W “all the way around the Aqueduct oval” has relevance where besides the one turn? He did run down a NW2L earner of 48k coming into the race who was loose on a very easy lead in a final 1/2 mile run in 51.71 where the loose leader held 2nd by 3 lengths.

I guess my not turning on the steam valve coincides with the lack of any horses running in the heat.
OR
Should I be impressed he beat the TB Derby winner by 8 in KY last fall?

[big18741]

Enticed looks like a horse that can improve based on pedigree.
Both parents were 0 horses routing in their 3 yo campaigns.

Gotham performance doesn\'t scream Derby winner/contender to me but lets see how they score it here and what Enticed does in his next prep.

One knock for the Derby would be Enticed not wanting to run inside of horses.
It\'s out there that he needs an outside in the clear trip.

[Niall]

Yeah! Talk Derby to me!! Thanks Tav for prodding the conversation. So weird this years trail, or do I just have short term memory? My take... as mentioned here previously, how KEY has the KJC been? And to whoever has watched, the ride on Promises looks really strange. No knock on Alex Canchari but maybe he was just too inexperienced to ride that horse? Still, the run backs are what they are. I\'m not so fast to dismiss Enticed. What to make of these 1st out of the box winners in stake races? Not for me. To top it off the future bet round 3 has a fav who hasnt been 2 turns yet. I suck at betting and still smart enough to know that there is NO value in that bet, its a terrible risk. Right? No, my future money is with a colt who hasnt run on dirt although is bred nicely for it. To the Symphony lads! Scat Daddy rip, what a sire. Gotta love Flameaway and hat off to Oxley/Casse for running him. Hard trier that one. Oh - its Cheltenhem Week too. Cheers

[Niall]

I stand corrected, Justify has gone 2 turns. Still a bad wager imo. Also, listen to Byks interview with Beyer re figure making  re the weekends nmbrs. Lots of guessing it seems.

[johnnym]

Baffert had some big talk about Justify article on Bloodhorse.

\"As we closed our notebook and prepared to leave his barn, Baffert offered, “Want to see the Derby winner?” That’s not an offer one should ever turn down, and Baffert led us one barn over toward the stable gate and four stalls down, where Justify’s handsome chestnut head with a broad blaze greeted us.\"

[skitimber]

I agree, not much value, but did notice Good Magic over Justify pays $246 and the other way $345.  Probably won\'t win, but maybe a bit of value, better than the lottery!  So may Justify be great and good Magic just a tad better on Derby Day!