Race of The Week (Redux)

[Tavasco]

This week\'s Race Of The Week has become a non event so I thought I\'d render the sincerest form of flattery by imimating it. Including some editorial.

Fairgrounds Race #7 LA Futurity 2 y/o\'s @ 6F.

1. Prayer Boy - So this colt already has somewhat of a resume. He\'s raced six times in six months. Three (3) stakes races and won twice first in a mdn claimer (EvD) then right back in an Alw (Ded). He didn\'t surprise the bettors and is stuck on 13 which is mmm... about 4 points shy of contending today. Trainer Landry seems to do his best work with juveniles with a solid 20% strike rate and 3.00 ROI. The pattern will probably produce a jump up soon but today? Trainer Landry routinely runs his trainees back on short rest so in this case I don\'t read it as a positive. Local cajun brotherhood member Stevie B.  is capable of anything so with m/l of 20/1 isn\'t impossible but imo his need to lead and I count four (4,7,8,12) quicker suggests he gets caught behind pacesetters on the rail or uses too much energy early to finish.

2. Gladyousawme - another multiple 13 pt hourse. This one has had more time from his last race which is a positive to me and jumping forward 4 points for trainer Cox would not shock me. I like that this colt seems to do his best running late and yeh he is unbeaten. Probably won\'t lose much if any ground tracking the frontrunners. But 7/2 m/l seems a function of connections rather than proven ability. So he is the worst kind of underlay he has to improve to even get a minor placing.

3. My First Guitar - not very many positives; Trainer Ladner has never lost a stakes race? Based locally and gets Lady Gadiva as a rider. Otherwise they know something that I missed in the form and sheets.

4. Greeley Went West - First I\'ll thank the M/L maker. The only concern I have here is could bounce but I\'ll play this one at 4/1 or better. As a pace guy I love horses whose style is closer and have better early speed than the the expected pace setters. This one caught #8 Divine Bean todays probable pace setter last out here on the long FG stretch. Those two would not be an unreasonable exacta. Already fast enough to win.

5. Pound for Pound - has already chased two of todays contender home before winning last out @7+1/2 furlongs. He\'ll probably be running late but a minor spot is the best I can imagine @ today\'s 6F distance. This looks to be a solid colt but I expect some ground loss. A must use to fill out verticals.

6. Calimor - If he goes he has a chance to win. Seriously, this one has more of a chance than one might first think. As in the original race of the week this guy displays a recovery pattern to my eye. His original race way back in early June wasn\'t terrible. But it set him back. He\'s recovering and developing but still has to go forward some 7 points to compete. His expected attempt to lead from the get go spells trouble for some one(s) he could compromise the #8 he could lose all chance himself on the turn. Deserves every bit of the m/l 30/1. Worked a significant bullet at slow DeD. Mysterious or foolish entry?

7. Givemeaminit  - We\'ve seen what the BC comebackers have done and that is to crush all comers. So that\'s what I expect here. I guess the morning line of 3/1 doesn\'t account for this colt being a faster sprinter than router. A single in the horizontals and maybe I\'ll leave him out of the exacta if gets bet down to even money or worse. The key horse. Another which should love the long stretch run. All of his races are as fast or faster than the competition. As in he has never run slow enogh not to contend here!

8. Divine Bean - by Star Guitar who is arguably a sprint oriented sire. I\'d like this one better at GP or SA where the turn farther into the race enhances front running advantages. Could be bothered by the #6 early but in any event I consider this one the speed of the speed. I just don\'t expect him to win. Fading late. M/L relative to his TG #\'s is square and consequently an exacta & tri use.

9. Da\' Big Newt - Local icon trainer Breaux would not waste this horse in this race imo. The debut race is a pattern that I\'ve witnessed in other young horses who developed later. Chased the pace, then dropped back, then finished strong just like they didn\'t know what they were doing or what was expected of them c/b why he\'s been gelded too. I expect this one to jump up and he needs to to get into this race.

10. Monsieur Brown - as popular as Miss Broussrd is in that zip code hopefully she\'ll attract some bettors. I can\'t imagine much other use for this one. Trivia - I believe she is the grand daughter of N.O. D.A. Broussard the successor to Jim Garrison.

11. Vapor Viper - wtf? this one has raced 9 times and now veteran trainer and veteran jockey decide he\'s slow because he\'s been racing on turf at too long of a distance. OK,  he\'s well rested. A two y/o. 30/1.

12. Ready Prospector - other than a jockey who seems like he is approaching 100 y/o, I find this colt almost useful. His line shows steady improvement to borderline competitive. His 4th in the La Juvenile @ LaD marks him as a tri possibility if none of the new shooters fire. The m/l 8/1 may float up and he has a punchers chance of getting a check imo.

Bottom Line
At the M/L\'s Greeley Went West & Givemeaminit to win and horizontals and ebx. Consider tri\'s and supers by adding Divine Bean, Pound for Pound & Ready Prospector in the minor slots if #7 remains anywhere near m/l

[shager]

Tavasco nice write up. Hope you add something there with PFP

[Tavasco]

Very kind comment. Thank you.

I can\'t tell you how many times (a lot) I\'ve convinced myself a horse was alive at a price but could not win and watched them waltz right by and ruin an otherwise good opinion of a race.

I\'m headed to Sha Tin

Happy New Year