Stellar Wind

[dsipes]

Interesting also that the THORO-PATTERN stats for Stellar Wind\'s pattern showed that pattern was likely to result in an X fig (more than 4 point) was probably accurate as well despite everyone telling me to ignore THORO-PATTERN because it\'s for beginners and those Thoro-Pattern stats are results of all different kinds/quality of horses with that same pattern. My post-mortum BC analysis is going to see if Thoro-Pattern was accurate on some BC runners.

[BitPlayer]

dsipes -

Actually, the juxtaposition of your Stellar Wind observations with the Bar of Gold discussion in another thread demonstrates the idiosyncrasies of Thoro-Pattern.  Bar of Gold ran a negative 4.25 on October 22, 2016.  Stellar Wind ran a negative 4.0 three weeks earlier.  Yet, for Thoro-Pattern purposes, the -4.0 was Stellar Wind\'s \"effective top,\" but the -4.25 was not Bar of Gold\'s top, because she had run more races (most of which were not even dirt races) in the interim.  If she had run one less grass race at this summer, Bar of Gold\'s \"effective top\" would have been -4.25 and her Thoro-Pattern stats (for X-X-X) would have looked just like Stellar Wind\'s.  I\'m not saying that Thoro-Pattern is wrong, just that it is a blunt tool.

P.S.  I didn\'t bet either of them.

[SoCalMan2]

dsipes Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I began a thread on Stellar Wind on here before
> Breeders Cup suggesting her TG figs of \"all 0\'s\"
> this year suggested she had peaked last year.
> Looks as if that pattern theory was correct albeit
> she had a bad post on the inside.  Nevertheless,
> SW ran an awful last place finish.  Can I assume
> TG will use her pattern in the future as a sign of
> their suggestion in the seminar: \"if it looks like
> a horse is tailing off, they probably are.\"

I stand by the same comment I made to you earlier.  You need to consider in certain situations (this being one of them) the sex of the horse you are analyzing.  Fillies and Mares are much more prone to \"be a different\" horse after time off.  My read of Stellar Wind was she was a different horse. The same sheet with a colt or horse could have easily rendered a different interpretation.

Again, as I did in my earlier response to you, I hold out Lady Aurelia.  Her sheet looked very vulnerable to me.  3yo fillies just do not string together so many top efforts without a bounce (either on a number power basis or pattern basis).  She had already bounced before and the mathematics for her were not good.  If that same sheet were a colt, I would have read it totally differently.  Of course, tossing her did me no good as I did not have Stormy Liberal.  Nothing I hate more than correctly tossing an odds on favorite and then not being able to cash because the wrong long shot wins.  

I would also say it is not a universal thing that you need to read all filly and mare sheets suspiciously......I am just talking about specific circumstances (the two here are good examples -- (a) a filly or mare coming back after time off as a \"different horse\" and (b) 3yo fillies\' abilities to string together a number of very strong/top efforts on absolute or pattern terms without a reaction somewhere in there).

[dsipes]

Your analysis is really helpful and fascinating.  The type of content I need to learn.

[Bet Twice]

Did you really need the thoro-pattern to tell you that Stellar Wind was not running at the same level as last year?