Bullards Alley at Woodbine?!

[helmetcity]

Best Brisnet turf speed rating in the last 12 years

[richiebee]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwjavtG0mPnWAhVlxoMKHUBzBpIQFggmMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.drf.com%2Fnews%2Fglyshaw-en-route-breeders-cup-was-not-far-abyss&usg=AOvVaw0C8auiSRcd35EkjsTeiVlY


Interesting read. Trainer Glyshaw was \"at the edge of the abyss\" after his barn
was quarantined for nearly two months at FG.

Bullard\'s Alley Beyer # (114) was the highest recorded on turf in NA this year.

Trainer Glyshaw says BA loves a soft turf, giving him what chance on what will
likely be a rock hard Del Mar surface?

[Fairmount1]

As I shared with a friend of mine yesterday \'bee, the article states that the trainer said he wasn\'t caught up paying his vendors until two months ago.  How would you feel if you were an owner for that trainer?  YIKES.......would be my response especially if my payments to him for my bills were current.

This discussion was in the midst of a group text deciphering if TG (the trainer) had a new vet or if enhanced testing helped an honest trainer.  I asked the question if he had a new vet to kick off the discussion.  But that is crazy talk to try to explain how a trainer wins 3 races at $35 mutuels or more in a 14 day period including a G1 and a G2.  It is much more exciting to just cheer home every horse that wins every race because they all run chills down your neck when they turn for home............

[richiebee]

This brings to mind another discussion which has been heard here and elsewhere...
whether large margins of victory sometimes distort performance figures.

[Leviathan]

\"Phil Libin had made the decision to lay off all of his employees and shut down Evernote in 2008. Checking his email one last time at 3 a.m. before going to bed, Libin found an email from a man in Sweden who loved the product and offered to invest. A wire transfer for $500,000 helped the company avoid a complete shut down and gain enough traction for it to take off. Evernote is now valued at more than $1 billion.\"

The thorough analysis of Tim Glyshaw\'s life on this board,  with zero information, should make each of you that has questioned it proud. I\'m glad to hear that those of you who question every part of this man\'s success have gone through life with zero setbacks and every life success was logically explained through data.

To others who recognize hard work and doing the right thing day in and day out and even being honest about your failures often can lead to the greatest successes, I wish you good fortune and success in your handicapping.

[TGJB]

Short answer is yes.

[SoCalMan2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Short answer is yes.


Apologies.  My question (if you can call it that) was ridiculously convoluted.  Is your yes, a yes -- a point represents the same amount of margin at the same distance regardless of how fast or slow the race is run OR is that yes, a yes, a point is different margins at the same distances depending on whether the race is faster or slower.

Again, apologies for the inarticulateness here.

[SoCalMan2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This brings to mind another discussion which has
> been heard here and elsewhere...
> whether large margins of victory sometimes distort
> performance figures.


Maybe this is what you already meant, but that is also true outside of horseracing.  Just look at football.  We have a line that is supposed to represent the over/under of the expected margin of victory by the better team.  However, in football, blow out wins sometimes happen.  If the spread was 14 points, but the team won by 35 points, does that mean the spread was bad or somebody cheated?  It seems to me that the 14 points is a shorthand for many different possibilities.  It would seem unreasonable to say that a 35 point margin is reason for outrage if the spread was only 14 points.  When people make football power rankings, they wrestle with the same issue.

Additionally, in the same vein as RichieBee\'s point, there seems to be at various times and places equine racing surfaces that yield larger separation between horses than one normally sees.  It is a phenomenon.....but how to fold that phenomenon into other measurements is a conundrum.  

Personally, I think the answer is that speed figures give you one view of the picture.  You cannot put blinders on and only look at the speed figures. One needs to take into consideration the context a figure was earned in as well as the context the horse will be racing on the new day.  Apologies if this is blaspheme here, but it also brings to mind designations that go with a figure and how important they are in considering a figure.  

One thing I remember from my days using Ragozin is that they used to have a wind designation (g and G, if I recall correctly).  It seems to me that some sort of designation to state if the day was a windy day could be helpful.  And, while I am at it -- how about designations like XC and XH for extreme cold and extreme heat?

[Furious Pete]

Pace does not affect the value of a length at a given distance, but when a race is ran at slow pace one tend to rely more on projection which could have an effect on that relationship after all. This is how I do it anyway.

[TGJB]

Point is the same for the distance regardless of time (4 points for 10 lengths). If you look at even ten seconds as a percentage of 2 1/2 minutes you\'ll see the difference would be relatively small regardless.

[sekrah]

A race with an unusually slow pace will overwhelmingly favor the horse with the fastest top speed.

[Furious Pete]

Often so, but ground loss is the key \"disturbance\" in these cases when making performance figures.

As a figure maker it\'s an almost unsolvable issue. As a handicapper it\'s not.

[Airnate012]

P-dub,

I totally agree. Bullards Alley actually had the top speed figure in the field by 3 points on the wagering app that I use, along with a successful Woodbine jock in Da Silva riding....and was sitting at 40/1 on the tote. I\'ll go ahead and red board because I keyed Bullard in a tiny exacta with the field and cashed (seemed worth it considering the odds). You\'re right though, it makes sense to some, and to some it makes no sense. Only 2 weeks from BC! Can\'t wait for the seminar!

[SoCalMan2]

Airnate012 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-dub,
>
> I totally agree. Bullards Alley actually had the
> top speed figure in the field by 3 points on the
> wagering app that I use, along with a successful
> Woodbine jock in Da Silva riding....and was
> sitting at 40/1 on the tote. I\'ll go ahead and red
> board because I keyed Bullard in a tiny exacta
> with the field and cashed (seemed worth it
> considering the odds). You\'re right though, it
> makes sense to some, and to some it makes no
> sense. Only 2 weeks from BC! Can\'t wait for the
> seminar!

The original complaining poster even said that it was not a stretch to see Bullard\'s Alley winning.  The objection was to the 10 lengths part.  The original poster basically said all the horses were in a tight range.

All I would say is that there are times you pick the wrong horse and there are times your general analysis is wrong.  I have had it happen that I thought a race was evenly matched and one horse wins by 5 and second is 5 ahead of third.  I never would have expected 10 lengths to be the margin between 1st and 3rd, but stuff like that happens.  As they say, that is why they bother running the races.

[bellsbendboy]

Sek, clearly you meant this as a tongue in cheek joke? bbb