Arrogate is Going Down....

[jerry]

What I\'m saying is every horse in the San Diego except for Arrogate got hammered in the doubles. Not just the winner. All of the horses had their double prices halved or better in the last tick. This has nothing to do with the performance of the horses on the track. This has to do with betting irregularities. You know, the same kind of forensics they use to detect insider trading and so on?

[P-Dub]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What I\'m saying is every horse in the San Diego
> except for Arrogate got hammered in the doubles.
> Not just the winner. All of the horses had their
> double prices halved or better in the last tick.
> This has nothing to do with the performance of the
> horses on the track. This has to do with betting
> irregularities. You know, the same kind of
> forensics they use to detect insider trading and
> so on?

Ok Mr Conspiracy, relax. I know about forensics and how its used.

If a 1/9 favorite is predicted to lose, that creates value on EVERY other horse.

High level stuff here, comparing double prices being hammered to accounting forensics. High level stuff you\'ve come across yesterday. Impressive.

But if conspiracy theories are your thing, knock your lights out.

Geezus, Is it still Derby season?

[jerry]

Sorry I brought it up.

[boardedup]

I didn\'t see the pool totals or will pays before the race.  What you\'re saying is on the last tick EVERY horse not named Arrogate got halved?  I\'m with you, that seems highly irregular at best.  Was this just in the DD w/ the San Diego being the first leg or was it more widespread?

My question would be how much money would need to wagered on each entrant to get that kind of result?  And then if that even makes sense? Is there anyway to figure that out?  With all the talk of minus pools and such it would seem that the volume wouldn\'t be there late to make that happen, possibly a handful of massive wagers coming in at the very last minute like you mentioned.  It would seem that it would have to be multiple bets, right?

Again I\'d love to see the actual math behind the final odds/payouts, I think that would help to put it into perspective.  Like with sports wagering you can tell roughly how much money was bet on an individual side at any given venue by the line movements.  I\'d think you could do the same basic thing here?

[Boscar Obarra]

Sadly, I wasn\'t watching  the pools on this so there\'s no way to see what might have happened. Anything is possible, but it would be quite rare to see a halving of every horse , UNLESS the double with Arrogate was absurdly low, and it was adjusting against that.

 If someone knew Arrogate was a dead piece, there would have been action against in all the pools, not just double.

[P-Dub]

Could it have been computerized betting?

Software that spots overlays and automatically bets them??

[Boscar Obarra]

Not really, and without seeing the actual price moves, hard to say if the final odds were right or suspicious.

 For the most part, late changes have little to do with \'spotting\' overlays, and much more to do with what they like. This idea that you can scrub the pools for underbet numbers and win ,is  in my opinion, a fantasy.

[jerry]

I have screen grabs for the 8th and 9th race double probables at 0 minutes to post and final probables. Just tell me how to get them to you. From these you\'ll be able to better decide if this is worth the discussion.

[Boscar Obarra]

Just use one of the free image upload sites , like http://tinypic.com/

  and post the link

[TempletonPeck]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> This idea that you can scrub the
> pools for underbet numbers and win ,is  in my
> opinion, a fantasy.

Why do you find it implausible that one could shop for under-bet numbers and make money by finding them?

Isn\'t that what a zillion stock traders/sports bettors/real estate speculators/etc. are doing in their respective markets? Why shouldn\'t it work in this market? Haven\'t Benter et al. published that in some respects they were doing exactly this? Finding inefficiencies in the markets and blasting them?

See, e.g.:
https://www.wired.com/2002/03/betting/

[jerry]

OK. Posted on tinypic. Headers are Arrogate SDH 0min and Arrogate SDH final prices.

[Boscar Obarra]

;-) link?

[jerry]

Here they are

http://i66.tinypic.com/14ahgf7.png

http://i67.tinypic.com/ztulua.jpg

[Boscar Obarra]

On a quick eyeball, more or less what I suspected. Many of the doubles were just absurdly low on Arrogate and way too high on the others.  

 May have been  some  bet  against money there, but nothing I\'d deem suspicious.

 If you\'ll notice, the winning double vs the parlay was not out of line at all. If anything it was a tad high.
 
 Also, pool was a tiny 68k.

[jerry]

Thank you for looking. Appreciate your opinion.