Could be an "Offlee Wild" ROTW

[derby1592]

I have not piped-in with any opinions lately but the ROTW has an obvious live longshot in Offlee Wild. I pretty much agree with the TG analysis although I am much less concerned about the bounce since the improvement is only 2 pts better than his early 3yo top and it also came right after a very favorable change in barns.

From the rail at the weights at anything near the morning line he looks like the key to the race.

Good luck.

Chris

[jwo7]

If adding 5 points to every previous figure is such a labor intensive chore why bother?  I don\'t see why looking at negative numbers make handicapping a race any more difficult.  I think your product is fine the way it is, and any extra time you have should be spent on what you have been doing(adding to the trainer profiles, etc.)

[jwo7]

I think that this is a lousy race to bet on. There are too many horses at short odds that have a shot to but together a reasonable bet.  I agree that Offlee Wild might be the biggest overlay, but I\'m concerndwith the likely bounce.  His only saving grace isthe switch to Dutrow and the long rest since his new top.  I just can\'t get past the fact that he has bounced after every top effort.  I\'ll pass on this one.

[jwo7]

Sorry, posted this to the wrong string.

[Josephus]

Had to leave the track early on Sat. so I was betting the Mass. Cap off the morning line.  Offlee Wild was my key, I knew he would\'t stay at 15/1, but I thought he might wind up at about 6,7/1.  Would someone who saw the race be kind enough to tell me what he opened up on in the first couple of flashes?  Thanks.

[BitPlayer]

I was on TVG\'s website very early in the Mass Cap betting, to see if Offlee Wild would be a price.  If memory serves, he was at 6/5.

[MO]

I was at the Mass Cap. Made a $50 win bet early in the day. OW opened at 7/5, so I cancelled the bet. Saw Dutrow in the paddock, told him my sob story (before the race)and he was laughing his ass off.

However, using TG sheets Gator\'s N Bears was a mortal lock at 2-1 and Grand Cesare at 10-1 picking up Dominguez late was a gift.

[Silver Charm]

Hey MO,

Thought you might be interested in these Dutrow comments in the DRF.

\'said Dutrow, who was confident in Offlee Wild\'s chances in the Mass Cap. \"I bet out on him, so did everybody I know. I thought he was going to be tough to beat.\"

Some of Dutrows move-up jobs are reminiscent of Oscar and the public is betting them in a similar fashion.

Did you see where Offlee Wild was being wheeled back again on Wednesday.

[beyerguy]

Beyer definitely blew the figure on Offlee Wild\'s Belmont race.  He did a \"projection\" of 100.  If he had used the same variant as he used for every other race on the card, before and after the OW race, OW gets a 107.  

I have no idea why they downgraded his race, just the move to Dutrow alone could explain a return to previous top form.  Nice job Andy!

[gowand]

Everybody and their brother was on this horse.(even on the other site)  How come the odss maker who is supposed to do his for a living is not even close.

[bdhsheets]

Awwww, c\'mon. Take a little look at the pp\'s. Several had recent GIII wins and placings, whereas O.W. had his brains kicked in, the last 3 attempts in stakes. Not exactly an 8/5 fav resume............ and how often does Dutrow ship to Suffolk? Didn\'t he and Prado break their maidens in the race? Often big Beyer alw races don\'t translate to stakes success.

[beyerguy]

How often do Dutrow and Prado ship to Suffolk?  About as often as Barclay Tagg, or any of the other trainers or big name riders in that race do.  A total non-factor in my opinion.

OW had his brains kicked in, as you say, in prior stakes attempts, but he did win the Holy Bull, and for me, the trainer change makes that all obsolete once he ran huge for the new trainer.  

All that said, the exacta was the value in the race, obviously not the win pool, and but for a head, I would have lost...such is racing.

[Lansdon]

First blip was 6-5 ... someone bet 30k before the race.  Total win pool at the first blip ... OW\'s 30k was more than the entire field combined.

As the owner of the horse and an avid handicapper, I wouldn\'t have bet him at those odds.  But he is a quality horse that beat Funny Cide in Jan 03 before he suffered many setbacks.  He\'ll be fine ... and best of all, he\'s not a gelding!  LR

Beyer needs to stop making seperate variants like that unless it is obvious - or the Racing Form needs to start using an \'*\', bold type etc.. to point out \"suspect figures\".

The same problem occurs when a very fast or slow pace impacts the time.

Logic Dictates (Beyerlike figures) had it right.



Post Edited (06-26-04 18:00)