Thoro-Graph Figures & Shippers

[hellersorr]

What is the official Thoro-Graph position, if any, on shippers and how their figures should be considered or adjusted?

[TGJB]

What you don\'t know is that all the regulars are waiting for the sound of my head exploding.

To the degree that question computes, I think the answer is you\'re free to do what you want.

[Tavasco]

Some questions require experts. That was one.

[BH]

From the Introduction area elsewhere on this site:

\"Each number on a \"sheet\" represents a performance rating calculated by using the time of the race, beaten lengths (a proprietary formula different than generally used), ground lost or saved, weight carried, and the effect wind may or may not have had on the time of the race. The final figure is manually adjusted with a carefully crafted track variant. The lower the number the better the race. With few exceptions, there will be a figure for every race a horse has run past four years.

Thoro-Graph figures are represented in a clear graphical format. This format makes it possible to compare horses which have run under different conditions, different distances, at different tracks, and on different days. Any handicapper or horseman can examine each horse\'s history, form cycle, and relative ability in today\'s race.\"
Lots of great stuff on this website, and some very sharp handicappers that post regularly(I\'m here to listen and learn.)

[TempletonPeck]

I have a chef friend, who runs one of these places where the idea is they serve high-brow bar food, a \'gastropub.\'

One day I ordered his take on the Big Mac, which he calls the Mack Daddy. He sat down beside me, end of his shift, we\'re having a beer. That day I wanted to put some of the french fries on the burger, as I sometimes do. But, with him sitting there as I ate, I paused. I didn\'t want to offend him! After all, if he thought there should be fries on the burger, wouldn\'t he have put them on there? Finally I took the plunge, and put some fries on it. I looked at him apprehensively...

\"You\'re going to pay for it right? So it\'s your burger now. Screw it up however you want.\"

[hellersorr]

So a number is a number is a number.  I\'m kind of slow but that part I understand.

But at the risk of making more and more parts of your body explode:  How do you incorporate shipping into your handicapping and betting judgments on a day-to-day basis?

\"Until they have become accustomed to a new race track, they run below their best form.\"  (Tom Ainslie).

Now I am aware, well aware, painfully aware that approximately 117% of bettors in the known universe  consider themselves smarter than Ainslie, Beyer and all the rest.

Nevertheless.

Jerry, do you consider shipping in your handicapping on a day-to-day basis, or do you consider it irrelevant as regards to the number and pattern?

[TGJB]

If you check out the Breeders Cup seminars in the Archives, every time there is one in Cal I make a point about east coast shippers. But that\'s not quantitative and has nothing to do with figures. It\'s like any other handicapping angle.

[hellersorr]

Fair enough.

Let me ask this:  Have you ever done a study on whether or not shippers under-perform their numbers and patterns in relation to their odds?

[TGJB]

Not a general one, and there would be a ton of variables that would make it useless and possibly misleading. You will find some specific ones in the Breeders Cup seminars.

[hellersorr]

Very good.

Now excuse me while I go throw up after what happened to the odds on the eventual winner in Evangeline\'s third.

[hellersorr]

Although, in checking the Double payoffs, I guess Mathcapper would say it was preordained.

[skitimber]

The chef could have put an item on his menu:

http://www.browardpalmbeach.com/restaurants/ten-best-sandwiches-in-broward-county-6903882

See number 10.

[Mathcapper]

hellersorr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Very good.
>
> Now excuse me while I go throw up after what
> happened to the odds on the eventual winner in
> Evangeline\'s third.

Man, I just watched the replay -- that filly was showing as 7/2 during the first quarter mile, then an instant later she was 6/5.

She was 8/5 in the doubles, which gave you an indication of what was coming. That\'s one of the main reasons I compute them regularly - so you don\'t end up betting on a horse you think is an overlay but that halfway around the track ends up offering you no value at all. With 25%+ of the win pool coming in from rebate shops/ADWs after the race goes off, you can see some pretty big shifts when that money comes in, but fortunately it\'s usually already reflected in the Will Pays.

In this case the winner got bet down even harder in the win pool than in the doubles. The win pool is the more efficient pool, and in doing this for so long now, I\'ve found it\'s often a strong sign the horse is going to run a big one, so I\'m not surprised she drew off in the stretch and won for fun..

#somebodyknowssomething

[Boscar Obarra]

What\'s really great about it is, if the 3 wins they will say the early money knew, and if the 7 wins (in this case, gallops) it\'s the late money.

 #someonealwaysknows