Slide? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Slide.

[TGJB]

Enough conspiracy theories, let\'s get to the good stuff.

Somebody PLEASE ask Friedman on their site whether they had the variant moving on Belmont day. The card took 8 hours to run, they watered the track after races 1 through 6, and not again, although rain sprinkled half an hour before race 9 and a drop before race 10. It is ABSOLUTELY CLEAR that the track got MUCH faster as the day went on and water was added, then got slightly slower again late, after the water stopped. I\'m talkin about a 10 point slide here, from the first through the ninth, with no weather through the first seven-- something Ragozin and Friedman say is impossible (check out the Expo presentation that can be reached from our home page, if you have not already).

Given that it was the only 2 turn race, let alone the changing track, and the number of good ones not running their race, the Belmont figure was not rock solid, but it wasn\'t brutally difficult, either. Birdstone did run a new top (neg 1 1/4), which should come as no surprise. SJ \"backed up\" to a neg 3/4. Eddington and RA both got 3\'s, with Baileys ride causing him to finish 3 lengths behind Day. No one other than the Zito horses even paired their tops.

[miff]

Is there any debate that the track got MUCH FASTER as the day went on? Just look at the raw times get faster and faster.

[marcus]

Birdstone was the 2nd horse I threw out , even w/ only 3 races in \'04 coming into the Belmont I viewed this horse to have a (extreme ?) trouble line based on not being able to get back too or improve on his 2 yo top - Birdstone in my opinion was an underlay @ 36-1  .
Have a fantastic and tremendously successfull time in the UK !
+ would you be 1st time top hat (^) over there ...



Post Edited (06-09-04 07:45)

[TGJB]

Second time top hat, first time top hat that fits.

[fasteddie]

Underlay?? How about OVERLAY OF THE YEAR! Sometimes, it\'s not about raw numbers, but circumstance. Bird is clearly a horse-for-course, on top of which his 3yo debut was one of the most eye-catching races I had seen in years.

As a native Philly boy, this is the first time in my betting life I let my heart get the best of me, and sat this one out. It\'s like that commercial showing a touchdown and the Miami fan is screaming his head off, only then noticing he is surrounded by Jet fans.

I told my wife, if Smarty loses, don\'t let it be Birdstone!

[jbelfior]

Marcus---

Underlay???

Besides SMARTY JONES, how many Grade 1 winners were in the race??


Joe B.

[irontank]

C\'mon...I understand Birdstone was 36-1 but I just ran a search of every post on here over the last 30 days and exactly one pre-Belmont post even mentioned Birdstone as a contender (check out twoshoes\' post on June 2...his prediction was mostly right on)

True enough he was the only other Grade 1 winner and a horse that previously won at Belmont and bred for the distance...but I have to assume that his poor recent form was the reason that no one on this forum (other than Mark) predicted that he would be a factor.

Was he an underlay at his morning line odds of 15-1 (did anyone really expect Birdstone to go off that low?) but an overlay at 36-1?...is that why no one mentioned him in the 3 weeks leading up to the race??

[thomas]

From today\'s DRF Simulcast Weekly & Dave Litfin\'s June 5th track trends: \"Track quickened under spotty light rain; no bias\" What pisses me off is Friedman NEVER responds to any of these matters. The Gospel according to Robes. And nobody on the other board ever asks questions about figure making issues or he simply deletes them. I think followers of both camps would find a Robes/TGJB debate both enlightening and entertaining.

[TGJB]

Funny you should mention that. The panel at the DRF expo was originally titled \"DEBATE: Speed Figure Methodologies\", and I prepared my presentation with that in mind. Moderator Wolff and Jim Quinn, who was running the show, had other ideas (like, be nice), which made me look like an aggressive ... well, you know.

Yeah, Len has a problem answering questions, and hides behind eveything he can. His reasons are commercial and obvious. The real eye opener is the attitude of the low-expectation acolytes who are afraid to ask the questions, even on big issues like the 3 length error Ragozin made in the Derby. Cult or no cult, that\'s simply amazing.

Pass the Kool-Ade.

I agree on the track speed change.

IMO, Birdstone\'s  -1 1/4 is a great bet against in the next major stake.

He always looked like he had talent and could move forward, but I am looking forward to this one running back again in a major stake so I can bet against him off the reputation he\'s going to have off the Belmont win.

IMO that race fell apart.

IMHO, Birdstone is not a tip top 3YO at this time.

He may become one, but he isn\'t one yet.



Post Edited (06-09-04 20:07)

[TGJB]

I don\'t think the public will take his Belmont win all that seriously (marathon, etc.), but I think everyone here will probably be betting against him. The caveat is-- unless Zito is getting the kind of numbers he was getting the last couple of years in Kentucky, or on Belmont day.

[BitPlayer]

Irontank -

To give credit where it is due, jbelfior also picked Birdstone in a 6/2 post, albeit not by name (horse other than Purge that had run well in a stakes race at Belmont).  In addition, he predicted that Rock Hard Ten and Eddington would not handle the 12 furlongs.

[thomas]

I know Friedman built his reputation reading sheets but making them is a whole different ball game. I have no idea how good a figure maker he is because he never lets us in on his methodologies but I'll tell you when I really began to wonder about him. A year or so ago there was a debate about the number he posted for Chilluki's debut 4&1/2f race at Keeneland. One of the very few times he's ever responded to any of these sort of things he came out and assured the lemmings on his board he verified it by going back and looking at the subsequent numbers of the runners in the field. I couldn\'t believe what he said and NOBODY over there questioned him. Using the subsequent numbers of wildly unpredictable 2yo fillies in April and May to prove the accuracy of a 4&1/2 figure for early spring? Ouch. You\'re right,\'Kool-Aid Raggies\'Bill O\'Reilly would call them

[marcus]

Well that\'s ok -   I have nothing but respect for your opinion , needless to say one who played this horse and cashed a ticket and obviously are  right about the race however perhaps not for the reasons you think . I sat next to some people Monmouth Park (the first time that i ever went to a race track)who where playing numbers like little johnies baptism date & suzies birthday etc like they couldn\'t lose and they took out 5 figures for the day - they hit everything (while I cashed to little to late on a 9-5 shot in the last race after getting killed all day) . None of there horse\'s  figured but I don\'t think those folks cared too much about that . I\'ll give it to you that Birdstone moves up w/ distance if you say that was your deciding critera fine - it turned out to be a good decision on your part on that given day . It was my sense that Birdstone had a very unhealthy pattern overall and had been set back by that big 2 yo number . Just becouse a horse might favor a distance is to mean only that - if the horse runs well , the distance won\'t work against him .  I try to stay away those type of horse\'s ( who in my opinion have trouble or deteriorating lines as in the case w/ War Emblem  as a general rule of thumb)and still feel that horse ought to have been longer odds - I mean if you like the horse the bigger odds the better . I don\'t know if you use speed figures fast eddie but they are a handicapping tool which can help to bring prosperity and/or have fun with if used correctly ,  racing luck helps too ... We all new Smarty Jones was going to basically crack from mental fatique or physical exhustion the only question was when . Incidently , as a side note - Cigar was another horse which I could never quess right on . Big congrats on your score - I nailed Sarava a couple years back( not great looking on speed figures - but healthy) and hit w/ Go and Go in the first horse race I ever bet and know how gratifying it is when things go right .



Post Edited (06-10-04 22:41)

[marcus]

I love a price horse too , but also I want alot value and in that situation I felt W/ Birdstones deteriorating line I would need 80-1 to 99-1 to bet a horse (distance loving and all) with an unhealthy line irregardless of previous success\'s in stakes races . We all have our opinions in racing and you can take the last word - specially if you cashed , but I hope you still would have liked the horse at bigger odds - why not , he won ... I know in handicapping and wagering horse races that I\'m going to be wrong far more times than I\'m right - the whole thing is not to look too bad in doing so ( and have a positive  roi )...
 And with some additional food for thought, let me offer another unsolicited opinion - it is my experience that numbers dictate class and not visa versa .



Post Edited (06-09-04 23:21)